The Green Transition: Renewable Energy Technology, Climate

The Green Transition: Renewable Energy Technology, Climate Change Mitigation,

and the Future of Work in New Jersey

By Todd E. Vachon, PhD.

School of Management and Labor Relations

Rutgers University

Prepared for the New Jersey Governor’s Task Force on the Future of Work

January 2019

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary i

Introduction 1

The Climate Crisis and the Future of Work 2

Data and Methods 5

Climate Change, Mitigation, and Jobs 7

Major Sources of GHG Emissions and Associated Jobs 8

Plausible GHG Mitigation Strategies and Potential Jobs 11

Transportation 12

Electric Power Generation 17

Residential and Commercial 22

Discussion 26

Conclusion 29

References 31

Endnotes

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Meeting the goals of New Jersey’s Global Warming Response Act will require a rapid transition

toward renewable energy technologies that will alter the future of work in New Jersey. This

report provides insight into the following questions: What is the magnitude and nature of the new

jobs that are likely to be created? What types of skills will be required? What magnitude of job

displacement can be expected? And what steps can be taken to ensure that efforts to address

climate change are reducing rather than exacerbating the existing problems of social and

economic inequality in the state? Given the breadth of technologies explored in this report, the

findings should be considered a preliminary analysis and an invitation to further modelling

around the likely impacts of each specific technology. Notable findings include:

Investments in renewable technologies will create tens of thousands of jobs across dozens of

occupations in New Jersey, particularly in construction and blue-collar occupations:

• A transition to 100% renewable power sources will create over 80,000 construction jobs

and 50,000 operations jobs according to the Solutions Project at Stanford University. This

report finds that a 3500MW offshore wind project would create between 14,000 and

16,000 jobs and that doubling rooftop solar capacity from 3.5% to 7% would create over

3,000 additional solar jobs in the state.

• A large share of jobs resulting from wind and solar projects are in the manufacturing

sector—local procurement requirements and other economic incentives could bring these

jobs to New Jersey.

• Investments in clean vehicle infrastructure and expanding mass transit would bolster

employment in engineering, construction, installation, maintenance, repair, sales,

production, and transportation occupations.

• About 31,679 New Jersey residents currently work in energy efficiency, with over 60%

in the construction trades, earning an average annual income of $60,710. Employment in

this non-outsourceable sector is expected to grow 9% this year and continue expanding.

The green transition will require investments in education and worker training:

• Most new jobs will not require higher levels of education than existing energy jobs, but

the demand for new workers may outstep the capacity of existing education programs.

• According to the 2018 U.S. Energy and Employment Report, over 70% of energy

efficiency employers reported difficulty finding qualified workers, with 26% noting it

was “very difficult.” The retirement of baby boomers from the workforce will further

contribute to the shortage of skilled blue-collar workers in the state.

• Investments in specialized technical training at the high school and college level as well

as through trade apprenticeships and other training programs will be needed.

Transitioning to 100% renewable energy will reduce employment in fossil fuel industries:

• Approximately 20,000 New Jersey residents are employed in fossil fuel industries,

including about 8,000 in oil and gas production, 1,900 in petroleum refining, 5,500 in

coal- and gas-fired power plants, and another 5,000 in related occupations.

• Fossil fuel power plant jobs will be directly impacted by the transition to 100%

renewable energy. Petroleum-related jobs would likely experience a more prolonged

market-based decline resulting from the decline in demand for petroleum products. Plant

and refinery operators earn an average annual income of $72,000, a higher salary on

average than most blue-collar renewable energy jobs at this time.

• Business leaders, policy-makers, and labor organizations should work together to

negotiate solutions that ensure a fair and just transition for these workers. This is not only

the right thing to do for workers who are the victims of energy policy decisions but is

also a prerequisite for ensuring the broad-based support that is needed for the enactment

and implementation of any serious climate mitigation strategy.

The green economy is already more diverse than the old energy sector, but still stratified:

• 28% of workers in the four biggest solar job categories in New Jersey were non-white in

2017 compared to 17% in the biggest fossil fuel occupations. About 65% were male for

both industries, reflecting the prevalence of blue-collar occupations in the energy sector.

• Most of the diversity in the solar industry is found in the lower-paying rooftop solar

installation positions.

With the right policy mix, the green transition can be a vehicle for not only addressing

climate change but also many of the state’s existing social, economic, and environmental

inequalities. Some recommendations include:

• Inclusion of historically marginalized communities that have suffered the most and

benefited the least from the existing energy system into dialogues and decision-making

processes related to climate change, including job training and recruitment programs.

• Strong worker protections, including: the right to organize a union free from intimidation;

a “green prevailing wage” to ensure that new energy jobs are of similar quality as old

energy jobs and to advantage law-abiding, in-state contractors; a fair and just transition

for displaced workers; a “green new deal” to put unemployed workers to work creating

green infrastructure while simultaneously reducing unemployment at the margins of the

labor market; and clear career ladders for green jobs to ensure the retention of skilled

workers and to serve as a vehicle for spreading diversity into higher level occupations.

INTRODUCTION

Humanity is facing a climate emergency. Bold and immediate solutions are required to avert the

worst impacts of climate change. Societies are also facing unprecedented levels of income and

wealth inequality—often along the lines of race and gender—which threaten the very

foundations of democratic governance. Previous attempts to address these two problems

separately have often erupted in conflicts of “jobs vs. the environment” and ended with losses of

both (Hyde and Vachon, 2018; Kazis and Grossman, 1982; Obach, 2002, 2004; Vachon and

Brecher, 2016). From the struggles over old growth forests in the Pacific Northwest to pipeline

projects in the heartland to natural gas fracking here in the Mid-Atlantic, it is abundantly clear

that efforts to protect the environment which place the economic burden solely on workers are

both unjust and likely doomed to fail in the court of public opinion.

The motivation for the current research is derived from this historically situated knowledge

which tells us that to effectively solve either one of these grand problems—climate change or

inequality—policymakers must consider both problems simultaneously (Brecher, 2014). Such

solutions will invariably alter the future of work in New Jersey. New industries will rise, old

industries will fall. Jobs will come, and jobs will go. Depending upon the information at hand

and the policies prescribed, state leaders can either: 1) protect the climate and reduce inequality;

2) protect the climate and exacerbate inequality; or 3) not protect the climate and either reduce or

exacerbate inequality. The first option not only leads to the most societally optimal outcome but

is the only one that can build the broad base of support that is required for the successful

enactment and implementation of a strong climate protection program. This report aims to

provide relevant information about the likely employment impacts of various climate change

mitigation strategies to help inform public policy that can lead to the optimal outcome.

The Climate Crisis and the Future of Work

Recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as well as the U.S.

Government’s Fourth National Climate Assessment warn us that ever-growing levels of fossil

fuel use are stretching planetary limits by raising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air

pollution to dangerous levels (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018; U.S. Global

Change Research Program, 2018). The current carbon-based energy system is negatively

affecting the health and quality of life of the world’s population and is disproportionately

affecting marginalized populations, whom have contributed the least to the problem. Record

global temperatures and warmer ocean temperatures are increasing the odds of devastating

hurricanes and extreme rain events in some locations and prolonged droughts and wildfires in

others.

New Jersey has already experienced some of the impacts of a warming planet in the form of

extreme storms, coastal and inland flooding, and extended heatwaves. Superstorm Sandy alone

caused more than $70.2 billion worth of damages in 2012. With rising and warming oceans, the

frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events will only accelerate. Without

substantial reductions in our levels of GHG emissions, the state will be forced to confront a

reality where the Jersey shore is in a perpetual state of emergency, urban areas suffer frequent

deaths from pro-longed heatwaves, and inland river flooding rises to the steps of the state capitol

in Trenton.

To address the looming threat of climate change, the New Jersey state government enacted

the Global Warming Response Act (GWRA) into law in 2007. The Act seeks to limit the level of

statewide GHG emissions to 80% below the 2006 level by the year 2050. As presented in Figure

1, the state has made some moderate progress in achieving its goals, but significant work remains

to be done. The eminent decommissioning of the state’s (mostly) carbon-free nuclear power

plants in the coming decades will intensify the challenge of meeting the 2050 goals. However,

the new administration of Governor Murphy has vowed to take steps to meet the goals of the

GWRA. The Governor’s Environment and Energy Transition Advisory Committee made several

recommendations which the Governor has indicated support for, including: 1) a rapid transition

to renewable energy sources,

2) a significant reduction in statewide GHG emissions,

and 3) a

real effort to address environmental justice issues which have plagued the state for decades.

[Figure 1 about here]

The pursuit of these recommendations would trigger significant changes within the New

Jersey workforce in terms of the number of jobs, the types of jobs, and the types of workers who

get the jobs. Compared to the baseline “business-as-usual” scenario, compliance with the GWRA

will require fewer workers in extraction, oil and gas production, and non-renewable electricity

production, such as coal-and gas-burning plants. However, it will also require much larger

numbers of workers in energy efficiency programs, green infrastructure construction, and

renewable energy production. This report seeks to address the following five questions:

1. What magnitude of job displacement can be expected as a result of the technological

transition? What types of workers are likely to be impacted?

2. What is the magnitude and nature of new jobs that are likely to be created as a result of

the transition toward renewable technologies?

3. What types of skills will be required for these new jobs compared to existing energy

jobs?

4. How do the wages for these new “green jobs” compare to those in the existing energy

sector?

5. What steps can be taken to ensure that efforts to address climate change are reducing

rather than exacerbating the problems of social and economic inequality in the state?

Regarding job numbers, a simple survey of the contemporary labor market offers some

insight. Currently, the solar industry accounts for upwards of 7,000 jobs in New Jersey, with

about half in installation and the other half in project development, sales, and manufacturing.

Conversely, power plant operators in traditional coal-fired, gas-fired, and nuclear power plants

account for just 690 jobs. In line with previous research, this anecdote suggests that on average,

the total number of new jobs created will outpace the total number of jobs lost. However, this

numerical fact will be of little or no comfort to the individual workers who face the loss of their

job (Dixon and Van Horn, 2003). To remedy this social cost associated with policies that are

required to protect public health and safety, a series of just transition measures could be

considered, including early retirement for workers that are nearing the end of their careers and

job training and placement programs for younger workers. Understanding who the impacted

workers are can help inform such policies.

Looking at job skills, most blue-collar jobs in the green energy sector will not require a

college degree, as was also the case for fossil fuel-related jobs. However, the level of investment

in green infrastructure that will be required to meet the emissions reduction targets laid out in the

GWRA suggests a likely need to expand apprenticeship programs in the skilled trades to prepare

workers for the construction of offshore wind farms, commercial-grade solar installations, and

electric vehicle charging stations, to name just a few of the new technologies that will be

adopted. The increased number of professional jobs in civil and environmental engineering, the

sciences, and education and training will also require an increase in the number of skilled

workers with specialized training in these fields. Taking stock of the likely occupations needed

to successfully implement the GWRA can help inform and shape educational programming at

the high school and post-secondary level as well as in professional schools and apprenticeship

programs.

Likely, one of the great challenges of the green transition will be to ensure that the new

“green jobs” are also “good jobs.” The blue-collar fossil fuel jobs of the old economy have

benefitted from generations of subsequent collective bargaining agreements which have secured

livable wages and ample employment-based fringe benefits. Many new jobs, such as those

related to the construction of offshore wind farms, will also pay livable wages and offer good

benefits if the right labor agreements are in place. However, existing green jobs in other areas,

particularly residential solar, are yet to offer such wages and benefits. For example, the median

annual salary for a solar installer in New Jersey is currently $43,620. Compare that to power

plant operators who earn a median annual salary of $80,530 and it becomes clear why some

workers are reluctant to trade in their old “dirty” job for a new green one. Some possible

solutions to the green job wage gap could be strong protections for the rights of workers to

unionize in the sector or the creation of a “green prevailing wage” measure for all green

economy jobs. In sum, a closer examination of the wage composition of green economy jobs can

help to inform fair wage and labor standards governing employment in the sector.

The remainder of this report will consider in greater detail the jobs and wages associated

with the major sources of GHG emissions as well as the climate mitigation technologies that are

most likely to be deployed in New Jersey.

DATA AND METHODS

This report will utilize employment, wage and occupational data from the Bureau of Labor

Statistics (BLS) Occupational Employment Statistics (2018a), BLS Occupational Outlook

Handbook (2018b), and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey (2018) in conjunction with

previous research on green jobs to determine occupations that are most likely to experience

growth as a result of the green transition. Energy production and greenhouse gas emissions data

from the U.S. Energy Information Administration will be used to determine the sectors that are

most likely to be targeted by technologically-driven climate mitigation strategies in New Jersey.

This report will focus solely on energy-related drivers of climate change as they are the most

relevant when considering employment impacts.

Upon identifying the most logical mitigation strategies, the study will utilize the Jobs and

Economic Development Impact (JEDI) modelling procedure developed by the National

Renewable Energy Laboratory at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency

and Renewable Energy to generate approximate job projections for some projects, particularly

wind and solar (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2018). Based on user-entered project-

specific data or default inputs (derived from industry norms), JEDI estimates the number of jobs

and economic impacts to a local area that can reasonably be supported by the project. Jobs

outputs are distributed across three categories: project development and onsite labor impacts,

local revenue and supply chain impacts, and induced impacts. JEDI model defaults are based on

interviews with industry experts and project developers. Economic multipliers contained within

the model are derived from Minnesota IMPLAN Group's IMPLAN accounting software and

state data files.

This report categorizes types of jobs that would be created using the Department of Labor’s

Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system. The 2018 SOC system is a federal statistical

standard used by federal agencies to classify workers into occupational categories for the

purpose of collecting, calculating, or disseminating data. All workers are classified into one of

867 detailed occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification,

detailed occupations are combined to form 459 broad occupations, 98 minor groups, and 23

major groups. Detailed occupations in the SOC with similar job duties, and in some cases skills,

education, and/or training, are grouped together.

The analytical method of this study will proceed in three stages. First, I will review the

primary sources of GHG emissions in the state of New Jersey to identify the most effective and

plausible climate mitigation strategies. I will then identify the major occupations which will

experience a decline in employment as a result of transitioning to renewable energy sources.

Finally, I will explore the occupations that will most likely experience growth as a result of these

mitigation technologies and the skills that will be needed to perform these jobs. Given the short

timeframe provided for completing this analysis and the large number of mitigation strategies

considered, the employment projections are meant to be suggestive of the types of changes that

can be expected in the state labor market. Future research should investigate the economic and

job impacts of each mitigation strategy separately and in greater detail.

CLIMATE CHANGE, MITIGATION, AND JOBS

Addressing the issue of climate change requires reducing the levels of GHG emissions into

the Earth’s atmosphere—our home. Fossil fuels have powered the growth of capitalist economies

since the industrial revolution. They have provided the electricity for businesses, fuel for

transportation, and heat for homes that helped to build the American middle class. History tells

us that this story was not always joyous for all involved and that the rewards and consequences

of the dual rise of fossil fuels and capitalism were not always evenly distributed. At this critical

juncture, as we stand at the precipice of a new energy world order, it is imperative that we look

to our past and build from our successes and try to avoid our mistakes. In our collective hands

we hold an opportunity to not only save the Earth’s climate for our children and grandchildren,

but to help ensure a more fair and just distribution of jobs and resources for our family members,

friends, neighbors, and ourselves.

In this section I will briefly describe the major sources of GHG emissions in New Jersey and

consider some of the occupations that are reliant on the continued extraction, production,

transportation, and consumption of the fossil fuels that emit these climate changing gases. While

they will be categorized and referred to as jobs, it is important to remember that in each job is a

living human person who has hopes and dreams and who has a family that relies on the income

from that job. If addressing climate change means eliminating jobs that are related to fossil

fuels—which it does—then addressing climate change also means addressing the needs of the

workers who through no fault of their own will face job loss. That is the minimum ticket price

for participating in any meaningful and morally intact discussion of climate change mitigation as

a public policy.

Major Sources of GHG Emissions and Associated Jobs

Figure 2 outlines New Jersey’s energy-related CO

emissions as reported by the U.S. Energy

Information Administration (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2018). As indicated by the

blue section of the pie, more than half of all emissions in the state are from the transportation

sector (52%). Electrical power generation contributes 16%, residential and commercial buildings

combined contribute 23.5%, and industrial processes 8.6%. The bar portion of the figure looks at

emission levels by fuel type. As indicated by the red bar, petroleum use emits 68.4 MMTCO2

into the atmosphere each year and natural gas contributes 41.3 MMTCO2.

[Figure 2 about here]

Considering transportation’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions it should be no

surprise that petroleum is the major fuel source driving emissions in the state, accounting for

61% of emissions by fuel type. The second major source of emissions, natural gas, which

accounts for 37% of emissions, is utilized for electricity generation as well as for heating,

cooking, and hot water in residential and commercial buildings. The relatively minor

contributions by coal are a testament to New Jersey’s shift away from coal to other power

sources in recent decades (McDonald, 2017).

Using BLS data, Table 1 outlines the major occupations that are related to the extraction,

production, and consumption of petroleum, natural gas, and coal in New Jersey. According to the

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), New Jersey has no crude oil reserves or

production, but the state has two operating oil refineries which produce a range of refined

products, including gasoline, diesel fuel, and heating oil. Four refineries were closed in the state

between 2010 and 2017, but the northern portion of the coastline, along the New York harbor, is

still home to the largest petroleum product hub in the northeast. One third of the 1-million-barrel

federal Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve is stored at Port Reading. New Jersey is crossed by

major petroleum pipeline systems and receives petroleum product imports by tanker from all

over the world that supply northeastern markets. New Jersey also serves as the primary

distribution hub for ethanol that is blended with gasoline across the East Coast.

[Table 1 about here]

Since 2010, natural gas consumption for electricity generation has increased by more than

one-third in New Jersey, replacing several coal-fired power plants due to reduced costs as well as

environmental and health benefits. Three out of four households in the state use natural gas as

their primary home heating fuel. When it comes to natural gas production, New Jersey does not

produce any, nor does it hold any reserves. This is due largely to the opposition by state residents

to the use of hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) for natural gas production which can have negative

effects on local drinking water supplies. In response to public opinion, New Jersey's state

government in early 2018 supported a ban on fracking in the Delaware River Basin. Although it

does not produce any natural gas of its own, New Jersey is crossed by several interstate pipelines

that are primary carriers of natural gas. About half of the natural gas entering New Jersey is

consumed by state residents and the other half is shipped on to other states. New pipeline

sections are currently under construction in the state to transport more natural gas from

Pennsylvania through New Jersey and on to the Northeast, but many new natural gas pipeline

projects in the state have been met by public opposition.

When it comes to coal, New Jersey does not have any coal reserves or mined coal

production. The state also uses very little coal for electricity generation as most of the coal-fired

power plants have been shut down or converted to natural gas. The state's sole remaining coal-

fired electricity generating plant and two co-generation stations at industrial sites receive coal by

rail, usually from Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Virginia. The last remaining coal-fired

power plant will be converted to natural gas when a fuel supply pipeline is available.

Taken together, approximately 20,000 New Jersey residents are directly employed in the

fossil fuel industry, including about 8,000 in oil and gas production, 1,900 in petroleum refining,

5,500 in coal- and gas-fired power plants, and another 5,000 in related occupations (The

Solutions Project, 2018). The demographics of workers in the five biggest occupations in the

fossil fuel industry in New Jersey—production workers, first line supervisors, miscellaneous

managers, chemical engineers, and plant and system operators—are 62% male, 83% white, and

the average age is 45 years old with about 24% of workers aged 55 or older and 23% under the

age of 35.

As the state makes the shift to 100% renewable energy, jobs in natural gas and coal will

begin to phase out. The fate of jobs in oil refining and petroleum products is less clear as they are

more likely to be determined by market forces such as declining demand for petroleum products

than by public policies. However, it is not inconceivable that the state could place a restriction on

fossil fuel production as a means of addressing climate change just as the state has banned the

fracking of natural gas in order to protect water supplies. Whichever scenario comes to pass, it

will be the responsibility of the state in conjunction with employers and workers to establish a

plan for an orderly transition away from fossil fuels that protects the livelihoods of all displaced

workers. This issue will be discussed further in the concluding remarks at the end of this report.

Plausible GHG Mitigation Strategies and Potential Jobs in these Sectors

For New Jersey to reduce its GHG emissions in accordance with the targets set by the

GWRA, major changes will be needed to reduce the use of petroleum, natural gas, and coal. This

will require a transformation in the ways we commute to work and travel, heat our homes and

businesses, and how we as a state generate electricity—all of which will have ramifications for

the future of work in the state. There is not one magic bullet to eliminate GHG emissions

(Pacyniak, Kaufman, Bradbury, Veysey, Macbeth, Goetz, et al., 2017). The most plausible

strategy for meeting the state’s mitigation goals will involve a combination of: 1) electrification

of vehicles and expansion of mass transit to reduce petroleum use, 2) a switch to 100%

renewable energy sources for electricity generation to reduce natural gas and coal use, and 3)

investments in energy efficiency for homes and businesses.

The jobs associated with each of

these strategies will be reviewed below.

Transportation

Being the single largest contributor to GHG emissions, changes to the New Jersey transportation

system can make tremendous contributions to achieving the goals of the GWRA. There are two

primary means by which the state can reduce petroleum consumption: 1) the electrification of

public and private vehicles that are currently powered by combustion engines, and 2) the

expansion of mass transit to reduce single-passenger vehicle use.

Based upon New Jersey’s current mix of electricity sources, plug-in electric vehicles

(EVs) emit 8,991 less pounds of CO

per year

than traditional combustion engine vehicles (U.S.

Department of Energy, 2018a).

The use of mass transit in place of driving a single-passenger

combustion engine vehicle for a 20-mile round trip commute to a full-time, year-round job will

reduce CO

emissions by 4,800 pounds annually (American Public Transportation Association,

2008). The substitution of mass transit for all combustion engine vehicle use by one person can

reduce their CO

emissions by 11,435 pounds per year on average. In addition to reducing GHG

emissions, increased electric vehicle use would also reduce particulate air pollution and the

expansion of mass transit would reduce traffic on congested highways, parkways, and streets.

To switch from a transportation system that is dominated by single-passenger combustion

engine vehicles to one that is based upon EVs and the increased use of mass transit will require

significant shifts in employment in the state. Each of these strategies will be detailed below.

Electrical Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

The electrification of public and private motor vehicles will require a massive expansion of

electric vehicle charging infrastructure in the state (Herb, 2010). As of August 2018, New Jersey

had 76 publicly accessible DC Fast Charging outlets at 42 locations and 46 Tesla Supercharger

outlets at 7 locations (compatible only with Tesla car models). For most individual commuters,

the lion’s share of charging will be done with Level 1, slow chargers at home. However, Level 2

charging infrastructure at workplaces, public parks, and shopping centers will also be needed to

support the increased demand for chargers as EVs supplant combustion engine vehicles. Level 3,

fast chargers will be needed along highways and other frequently travelled roads for passengers

making longer journeys (Center for Automotive Research, 2018). Special attention will also have

to be given to multi-family living quarters such as apartment complexes and condominiums.

Public fleet vehicles will require massive fast-charging stations at their depots.

Whether directed by government agencies, private companies, electric utilities, or

individual consumers, the expansion of EV charging infrastructure will have many employment

impacts. Table 2 outlines the types of occupations that will likely experience growth (signified

with pink boxes for EV charging occupations) as a result of these investments as well as the

average entry-level education level for each occupation, the number of workers currently

employed in each occupation in the state, and the average annual income for each occupation in

New Jersey.

[Table 2 about here]

In the planning phase for larger charging stations in public spaces, various scientists,

architects, engineers, and legal occupations will be employed. These workers will require a

college education, ranging from bachelor’s degrees to PhDs and will also earn on average

upwards of $84,000 annually.

The manufacturing and construction phases will require a variety

of managerial occupations, educators, and technical trainers who will also on average hold a

bachelor’s degree. The average annual income for construction managers in New Jersey is

$138,980 and for educators and trainers it is $72,778. It is uncertain whether the manufacturing

jobs associated with EV chargers will be in New Jersey, but should there be production facilities,

these jobs would range from managerial jobs to line workers, who earn on average $39,480 and

require just a high school diploma. Many of the new jobs generated from EV charging

infrastructure will likely be in the skilled trades, including operating engineers, carpenters,

laborers, and especially electricians who will do the actual work of preparing charging station

sites, installing the equipment, and finishing the parking areas. These workers earn an average

annual income of $60,710.

Once publicly accessible charging stations are constructed, the question rises whether the

facilities will require station managers or charging attendants (as is required for gas stations in

the state). Management activities for a station or cluster of stations might include managing

driver access, billing, providing driver support, and monitoring the station. Based upon the data

for current gas station attendants in New Jersey, the annual income for these jobs is likely to be

rather low, around $18,000. Charging stations will also require maintenance on occasion as

hardware wears out and technology advances. This will create service and repair jobs which

currently pay on average, $45,530 in New Jersey and require little more than a high school

education or post-high school technical training program.

Given the variation of potential charging station styles, the unknown mix between public

and private chargers that will be needed to sustain the current 2.8 million registered vehicles in

New Jersey, and the rapidly changing technology, it is difficult to accurately project the extent of

job growth that can be expected from EV charging infrastructure. However, following current

trends, we can anticipate most chargers will be at private residences and installed by local

electrical contractors. If the installation of one in-home charger takes approximately 8 person-

hours of work, then the installation of an EV charging unit in each of the 1.8 million detached,

single-family homes in the state would create approximately 500 full-time electrician jobs for 10

years.

These electricians will need to be trained and licensed and their final work inspected,

creating dozens of additional full-time jobs for trainers and inspectors. The sale of residential

charging units will also create jobs in the wholesale and retail sales and office and administrative

occupations which pay on average $43,438 and require at least a high school diploma with some

jobs such as accountants requiring a bachelor’s degree.

Larger scale charging stations at workplaces, shopping centers, parking garages and

along highway corridors will create short-term construction jobs. According to Sustainable

Jersey (2017), the installation cost, minus materials, for the installation of DC fast chargers

ranges from approximately $100,000-$200,00 per station. Given the average construction salary

of $60,710 in New Jersey, it can be roughly estimated that each DC fast charger station project

will support somewhere between 1.6 and 3.3 full-time, full year jobs. By this estimate, the

construction of 100 new fast charge stations would create between 160 and 330 middle class

jobs. However, it should be noted that due to the variety of site-specific issues that can be

encountered at different project locations, it is difficult to reliably estimate the number of jobs

that will be created on these projects. For example, a location with a readily available hook up

for the 240v line will require considerably less work than a site that requires trenching or boring

over a great distance to access electricity. Retrofitting existing parking spaces also requires a

different combination of workers than the development of new sites.

When it comes to preparing the workforce, EV charging infrastructure represents a new,

but relatively simple technology, with the majority of jobs requiring little training beyond high

school.

However, the increase in demand for skilled trades workers, especially electricians, will

increase the burden on existing programs which may or may not have the capacity to accept an

influx of new pupils. Increases in demand for architects, engineers, scientists, and educators will

also result in an increased demand for college-educated workers with technical or scientific

backgrounds.

Mass Transit

The extent of mass transit use is largely determined by the capacity and efficiency of the public

transportation system that is in place. Luring drivers away from congested highways and onto

trains and buses will require an expansion of the services offered. Such investments in mass

transit would create many construction jobs in the short run as well as long term permanent jobs

in the transportation, installation and repair, and service sectors. Table 2 outlines the types of

occupations that will likely experience growth as a result of these investments (signified by blue

boxes for mass transit).

In FY 2017, New Jersey Transit alone had over 269 million passenger trips (154 million

by bus and 115 million by rail) that transported riders over 3.4 billion miles (New Jersey Transit,

2017). This saved over 1.5 MMTCO

emissions compared to travelling the same distance with

single passenger combustion engine vehicles.

The New Jersey transportation sector currently

employs over 10,500 rail and bus transportation workers earning an average of $61,623 for rail

workers and $46,800 for bus operators. These jobs require little more than a high school diploma

and offer a clear pathway into the middle class for many workers in the state. The transportation

sector also employs thousands of other workers in vehicle maintenance and repair, infrastructure

maintenance and repair, retail sales, customer service, and office and administrative occupations.

Expanding mass transit options in the state will require the work of urban planners,

engineers, architects, and scientists during the planning phase. The construction phase will create

hundreds of jobs for construction workers from the skilled trades, including carpenters, laborers,

operating engineers, electricians, and others, working to upgrade the existing, ailing and

overburdened infrastructure and to construct new infrastructure to increase rail capacity.

Dedicated bus lanes, such as have been adopted in Connecticut and other states (see CT Fastrak

for example), will also create hundreds of construction and highway jobs. As the capacity of rail

and bus lines increase, the number of workers employed as operators, sales representative, and

back office positions will also increase proportionately. For example, doubling bus capacity

would increase the number of bus operators from 7,350 to 14,700.

Other considerations include the electrification of rail and bus systems and could likely

be implemented more quickly than the costlier and longer-term investments needed to expand

overall capacity. These technological upgrades will contribute to the growth of many of the same

occupations detailed in the electric vehicle charging infrastructure section above. It is also

unclear what impact such investments would have on manufacturing employment in the state.

Signaling a large-scale investment in such technologies coupled with the right mix of public

policies and business incentives could trigger growth in the green manufacturing sector in New

Jersey and replace some of the many thousands of manufacturing jobs the state has lost in recent

decades.

Electric Power Generation

The use of natural gas, and to a lesser extent coal, to generate electricity leads to the emissions of

17.9 MMTCO

into the atmosphere each year. Nuclear power—which emits very few GHGs—

accounts for approximately 40% of New Jersey’s electricity generation, but the longevity of

these plants is in question as they continue to age and rely on state subsidies to operate. For a

variety of reasons that will not be elaborated here, the construction of new nuclear plants is not

likely in the state, which makes the adoption of renewable sources like wind and solar more

urgent in order to meet the GHG reduction goals of the GWRA.

[Figure 3 about here]

Based on an assessment of each state’s environmental resources, The Solutions Project at

Stanford University and the Carbon Free America project by National Geographic have

projected the likely energy mix for each state to be powered by 100% renewable sources. For

New Jersey, that mix, represented in Figure 3, includes 55% of electricity being generated from

offshore wind, 27% from solar plants, 10% from land-based wind farms, 7% from rooftop solar

(3.5% residential and 2.8% commercial and government), and 1% from tidal devices. According

to the U.S. Department of Energy’s JEDI modelling package, offshore wind generates

approximately .18 construction and .66 operations jobs per MW of electricity. Solar plants create

.90 construction and .30 operations jobs per MW. Land-based wind generates .10 construction

and .15 operations jobs per MW. And rooftop solar creates approximately 1.50 construction and

.46 operations jobs per MW. Taken together, the Solutions Project estimates that achieving the

goals laid out in Figure 3 will create 86,000 40-year construction jobs and 58,000 40-year

operations jobs in New Jersey. Each technology will be considered in greater detail below.

Wind Technology

Globally, the wind industry employed 1.2 million people in 2017, a 7% increase from 2015.

Wind employment in the U.S. increased by 28% in 2016 to 102,500 jobs (International

Renewable Energy Agency, 2015). There are currently an estimated 84,000 offshore wind jobs

across the world (Gould and Creswell, 2017). The European Union increased its number of

offshore wind jobs 12-fold, from 6,370 jobs to 75,000 jobs, between 2007-2014. The United

States has just one offshore wind farm to date, the Block Island Wind Farm off the coast of

Rhode Island, but several northeastern states have taken steps to begin harnessing the power of

wind. New Jersey has tremendous potential for offshore wind power generation as well as

moderate capacity for land-based wind power. Governor Murphy has vowed to make the state a

national leader in this sector, outlining a plan to have 3,500MW of offshore wind power up and

running by the year 2030 – enough energy to power 1.5 million New Jersey homes and

businesses and avoid emissions equivalent to removing over 873,000 cars from the road.

Using the U.S. Department of Energy’s JEDI models for employment impacts, we can

estimate that the proposed 3500MW offshore wind project will create somewhere between

14,000 and 16,000 jobs directly, including 5,000-6,000 project development and construction

jobs, and another 5,000-8,000 jobs from induced impacts.

Table 3 breaks down the job growth

projections by occupational categories. Meeting the target of 55% offshore wind power would

create upwards of 17,000 project development and construction jobs.

Meeting the target of

10% land-based wind power generation would create between 3,000 and 4,000 direct jobs and

1,500-2,500 induced jobs according to the JEDI models. Among the direct jobs, roughly one

third would be in project development and construction and about two thirds would be in turbine

manufacturing and supply chain activities which may or may not take place in New Jersey

depending upon the procurement requirements that are established through public policy. In

short, local sourcing requirements would lead to more in-state jobs.

[Table 3 about here]

These numbers should be interpreted with caution as the projections will fluctuate

depending upon a variety of factors for which we currently lack sufficient information, including

turbine type—which impacts the number of turbines. The distance to shore and depth of water

for offshore projects can influence the number of workers required. The selection of foundation-

type alone for offshore wind can have a significant impact on the number of jobs. Gravity-based

foundations would be constructed in New Jersey close to the port, creating additional local jobs,

as opposed to monopiles which would likely be built in Europe or steel jackets which are

predominantly made in the southern states along the Gulf of Mexico. The estimates above are for

steel jackets which are typically the least expensive of the alternatives.

Table 2 outlines the types of occupations that are likely to experience growth by

increased investments in wind power (signified by green boxes for wind). Previous studies of the

industry, particularly the offshore wind sector, have found that wind power projects require a

diverse technical workforce spanning over 70 occupations.

For example, the workforce

involved in the construction of the Block Island Wind Farm included cement masons,

commercial finance, dockworkers, electricians, engineers, health and safety experts, laborers,

lawyers, mechanics, machinists, operating engineers, pipefitters, plumbers, project managers,

regulatory, scientists, training professionals, truck drivers, vessel builders, vessel operators, and

welders, to name a few. The Block Island project tapped into local unions, contractors, and

businesses based in Rhode Island and, according to public statements by the plant operator,

created more than 300 local jobs during the construction of the small, 5-turbine wind farm which

generates approximately 30MW of electricity.

Solar Technology

Solar photovoltaic (PV) power was the largest renewable energy employer in 2017, with 3.1

million jobs globally, up 12% from 2015 (International Renewable Energy Agency, 2017).

According to the 2017 National Solar Jobs Census, the U.S. solar industry employed 250,271

solar workers last year, a 168% increase from the 93,000 workers employed in the industry in

2010 (The Solar Foundation, 2017). A similar report by the U.S. Department of Energy (2018b)

found that more Americans work in solar (374,000) than in natural gas or coal power plants

(187,117). The report also estimates that over 7,000 workers are currently employed in the solar

industry in New Jersey, including over 3,500 installation jobs, 650 manufacturing jobs, 800 sales

and distribution jobs, and 1,700 project development jobs. According to these estimates, solar

employment in New Jersey grew by 1,000 jobs, or approximately 17% between 2016 and

2017—nearly 17 times faster than the U.S. economy in the same period.

To meet the targets of the GWRA, New Jersey will need to expand both rooftop solar (on

private homes as well as commercial and government buildings) as well as construct commercial

solar PV power plants. The types of occupations that will experience growth as a result of these

two forms of solar technology—listed in Table 5 (signified by yellow boxes)—are similar,

however, the rate of pay for commercial solar construction is likely to be greater than for

residential rooftop PV.

In fact, one of the largest critiques of the rooftop solar industry by fossil

fuel workers has been its relatively low wages for installer jobs. The critique is especially

poignant considering the higher than average representation of black and Latino workers in the

rooftop solar industry (over 20% of installers are black in New Jersey according to the National

Solar Jobs Census). Commercial construction workers who would build solar PV power plants

earn on average $60,000 per year in New Jersey, whereas rooftop PV installers earn just

$43,620. The key distinction is the presence of unions in the commercial sector.

The 2,646MW of solar capacity currently installed in New Jersey accounts for about

3.3% of electricity generation in New Jersey (Solar Energy Industries Association, 2018). From

this figure we could roughly estimate that the amount currently installed needs to be doubled for

rooftop PV and increased 8-fold for commercial solar plant capacity to meet the goals of 7% and

27% respectively. Based on this estimate, the DOE’s JEDI models project that approximately

8,000 construction jobs and 2,400 operations jobs would be needed in the rooftop industry,

approximately 3,200 more jobs than currently exist in the sector. For commercial solar plants, we

could project that between 15,000-20,000 construction jobs and between 4,000-6,000 operations

jobs would be needed based upon the National Solar Survey figures.

Residential and Commercial

Most GHG emissions in the residential and commercial sectors come from energy used for

lighting and heating. As such, the primary method for reducing emissions is to increase energy

efficiency in buildings by upgrading doors, windows, insulation and heating/cooling equipment

in order to reduce energy waste and installing new smart gird technologies to reduce overall

consumption. The job impacts of these technologies will be reviewed below.

Energy Efficiency Upgrades

Energy efficiency, as defined by the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (2018),

is “the use of less energy to provide the same or better products, services, or amenities.”

Increasing energy efficiency “allows more control over energy use, lowers costs, and provides

multiple benefits for households, businesses, and the environment.” For example, adding

insulation to a private residence reduces its annual energy consumption while simultaneously

increasing its comfort. Increasing the energy efficiency of a manufacturing or industrial process

can enhance the competitiveness of a business in the marketplace. Reducing the overall energy

used by society also reduces pollution, including the emission of climate-changing GHGs.

Molina, Kiker and Nowak (2016) find that energy efficiency programs, appliance

standards, utility programs, and building codes have saved the equivalent of 313 power plants

worth of electricity since 1990. Energy saving programs in 2015 alone saved U.S. consumers an

average of $840 on energy bills per household and reduced GHG emissions by 490MMTCO

Addressing the 32% of GHG emissions that are still emitted from the residential and commercial

sectors in New Jersey will require major investments in energy efficiency in existing buildings in

addition to stricter codes for new buildings.

According to the EIA (2018), commercial buildings in the Northeast region are the

largest buildings of the 4 U.S. Census regions. Cities in the Northeast are well established and

have had very large buildings in place for many years—the median age for buildings in the

Northeast is 46 years, in contrast to 29 years for those in the South. In the Northeast, buildings

are, on average, 4,000 to 5,000 square feet larger than buildings in other regions also.

Unfortunately, older plus larger equals less energy efficient. The Mid-Atlantic has on average the

largest buildings among the 9 U.S. Census Divisions, averaging 22,300 square feet. Containing

just 9% of all commercial buildings in the U.S., the Mid-Atlantic accounts for 19% of the total

commercial floorspace. These buildings include offices, warehouses, stores, schools, restaurants,

hotels, hospitals, sports and concert arenas, and more.

Making New Jersey’s millions of square feet of commercial and public buildings and

private residences more energy efficient will create jobs for workers with a variety of skills.

Many of the occupations likely to experience growth are listed in Table 2 (signified by the cyan-

colored boxes on the table). According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the energy efficiency

industry already employs over 31,000 workers in New Jersey, including workers who

manufacture EnergyStar appliances and LED lighting systems (6,250 jobs), workers who design

and install more efficient heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems (15,246 jobs) and

workers who install advanced materials and insulation to reduce energy waste (2,184 jobs)

(O’Boyle and Blumenthal, 2018). Other jobs include LEED (Leadership in Energy and

Environmental Design) consultants and inspectors to advise energy efficiency projects and

certify buildings based upon their green building certification program (U.S. Green Building

Council, 2018). The use of tools like integrated energy and daylight modeling air management

and monitoring plans and green housekeeping protocols will also create jobs for workers from

across the skills spectrum, ranging from scientists and engineers to building and grounds

cleaning and maintenance occupations. Taken together, about 64% of energy efficiency jobs in

the state are construction jobs, earning an average of $60,710 per year (Johnson, 2018).

Nationwide employment in this sector grew by twice the national average in 2017 and is

expected to grow another 9%-11% this year (National Association of State Energy Officials,

2018). For New Jersey that would mean an additional 2,800 jobs, including more than 1,800

construction jobs. It also means an expansion in workforce development, education, and

technical training programs will likely to be needed. According to the 2018 U.S. Energy and

Employment Report, as presented to the U.S. Senate in May 2018, over 70% of employers

reported difficulty finding qualified workers, with 26% noting it was “very difficult” (National

Association of State Energy Officials, 2018). While there is no equivalent data for New Jersey, it

is reasonable to assume that employers in the state are also likely to encounter a shortage of

properly trained workers in the energy efficiency sector.

Smart Grid Technology

Due to population growth, an increase in home size and air conditioning use, and the

proliferation of computers and other electronics, New Jersey’s energy needs have increased

tremendously in the last few decades. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, growth in

peak demand for electricity has outpaced growth in power transmission by almost 25% per year

since 1982. However, the current power grid—the network for transmitting and distributing

electricity from power sources to consumers—evolved during the late 19th and early 20th

centuries and hasn’t changed much in more than a century.

Modernizing the system through “smart grid” technology is seen as the primary means of

improving the way we store and get power. Smart grid technology allows utilities and other

electricity suppliers to steadily monitor electricity flow and make real-time adjustments to

distribution in order to maximize efficiency. Smart grid technology also makes better use of

energy generated from alternative sources, including solar panels, wind turbines, and other

renewable energy sources, through improved storage and transmission. Many companies are

currently working on gridless or “post-grid” electricity generation technologies which can help

reduce grid congestion, cut expenses associated with peak energy demand, and strengthen the

resiliency of U.S. electricity systems by providing a backup power source when conventional

power goes down in times of crisis or natural disaster.

Updating and upgrading to a smart grid will also provide jobs in various occupations,

including engineering, construction, installation, and sales, and once the smart grid is set up,

other workers will be needed to operate and maintain it. According to research by the energy

consulting firm DNV KEMA, work related to the smart grid is expected to result in about

280,000 new jobs. A report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (2013) provides an overview of

employment and wages for occupations related to smart grid work, primarily in the electric

power generation, transmission, and distribution industry. These occupations and others related

to smart-grid technology are listed in Table 2 of this report (signified by the orange boxes). The

major occupational groups include computer and mathematical occupations, architecture and

engineering occupations, installation, maintenance and repair occupations, production

occupations, and other occupations including electricians, meter readers and urban planners.

To prepare for smart grid jobs, some workers already have many of the skills they need

but will require additional training to transition to the new technologies. Other workers, such as

meter readers, may need extensive retraining to gain higher level skills for new smart grid jobs.

Training for workers in computer jobs span a range of requirements, from professional

certification through a graduate degree. Engineers typically have a bachelor’s degree; however, a

significant number of employers require workers to have a master’s or doctoral degree.

Engineers are also expected to participate in continuing education to keep up with rapidly

changing technology. Installation, maintenance and repair occupations often require an associate

degree from a community college or technical school, although a high school education is

sufficient for many jobs. Workers in production occupations generally require little more than a

high school diploma, but in some settings additional training could be required, often on the job.

DISCUSSION

As this report and previous research has made clear, the green transition to address climate

change will be a huge jobs creation project. The exact number of jobs created will be shaped by

various policies and incentive programs. For example, in-state procurement requirements could

double the number of jobs associated with offshore wind technology by ensuring much of the

manufacturing takes place in New Jersey. However, the green transition will also involve job

destruction in various fossil fuel-related occupations. Depending upon the policy mix which

governs our transition, this inevitable labor market churning can either exacerbate or help to

remedy some of the existing deep economic and social inequalities within the state. This brief

discussion section will synthesize the major findings of this report and explore several policy-

related topics regarding the transition from black to green energy technologies.

First, most new green technology jobs are likely to be blue collar jobs. There will of

course be increased demand for highly trained specialists such as scientists and engineers, but

due to the labor-intensive nature of the energy transition, the majority of new jobs will be in

construction, installation, transportation, and production occupations. The growth in skilled

occupations such as electricians and wind turbine technicians are likely to strain the existing

educational and apprenticeship systems that are in place. Accompanied by the retirement of

many baby-boomers from the workforce, the demand for skilled blue-collar workers is also

likely to encounter an insufficient supply of qualified job candidates; a problem many employers

have already noted (National Association of State Energy Officials, 2018). For this reason,

workforce development is an area where pro-active planning can help to ensure that the in-state

workforce reaps the maximum benefit of the new green jobs. Apart from a skills shortage,

another likely cause for the dearth of skilled blue-collar workers is the increased pursuit of

college and white-collar employment by so many young workers. This could in part be rectified

by ensuring that the blue-collar energy jobs are of equal quality in terms of wages, benefits, and

workplace environment to their more sought-after white-collar counterparts. Direct recruitment

and jobs training programs in high unemployment areas could also reduce the labor shortage

while simultaneously increasing social mobility.

Second, early statistics on renewable energy employment suggest that the green

workforce is slightly more diverse than the workforce in the traditional energy sector. However,

looking more closely, we see that most of the diversity can be found in lower paying

occupations, such as rooftop PV installers. Ensuring that entry-level jobs have clear career

ladders can help to increase diversity in the higher paying occupations. Job training and

workforce recruitment programs can also help to ensure the growing green workforce is more

representative of the state’s population by targeting communities that have historically suffered

rather than benefitted from the energy system (Rodgers III, 2005). As the governor’s energy

transition task force has recommended, all state agencies involved in energy and environmental

matters could incorporate environmental justice issues into the core of their operations, which

could include jobs programs. Most importantly, any such programs would benefit greatly by

receiving input from and having participation by members from the effected communities.

Third, many of the entry-level positions in renewable energy, particularly in solar, pay a

much lower rate than their equivalent jobs in the fossil fuel sector. Much of the difference

between the starting wages in these new jobs and jobs with equal skill requirements in the old

energy industry can be attributed to the history of unionization and collective bargaining in the

fossil fuel sector. As was recently noted in a report by Rutgers LEARN (Merrill and Vachon,

2019), employer hostility toward unions has stymied the ability of workers in emerging

occupations in recent decades to capture a fair share of the economic growth created by their

labor. Something like a “green prevailing wage” could help to ensure that workers in new green

energy jobs are paid fair wages by protecting their right to organize if they so choose and

levelling the playing field between high-road and low-road contractors by removing wages from

competition in the bidding process.

Other means to ensure that green jobs are good jobs include increasing the state minimum

wage to a living wage or creating a state jobs guarantee for all workers in order to end

involuntary unemployment. In this vein, the idea of a “Green New Deal” has received much

attention in the media since the start of the 116

Congress. While the details of such a plan are

yet unclear, the center piece would be large-scale public investment in renewable energy

infrastructure through public entities to both address the climate crisis as well as create good-

paying jobs for workers in need. Taking this publicly-driven, as opposed to the current market-

driven approach to addressing climate change could accelerate the green transition as well as

ensure that green jobs are good jobs.

Finally, the transition away from fossil fuel-based transportation, electricity generation,

and heating will inevitably lead to a decline in many occupations that are associated with the

extraction, production, and consumption of those fuels. For the green transition to be fair and

just, policymakers should meet with employers and workers and consider measures to protect the

livelihoods of displaced workers, including early retirement programs for workers approaching

retirement age and job training and placement programs for younger workers. These types of

programs have come to be called a “just transition” and stem from an older concept once called

the “superfund for workers” (Mazzocchi, 1993).

The rationale for a just transition is the basic

principle of fairness. The burden of policies that are necessary for society—like protecting the

environment and addressing climate change—shouldn’t be borne by a small minority of the

population, who through no fault of their own happen to be victims of their side effects.

While it is true that on balance, environmental policies tend to create more jobs than they

eliminate (Goodstein, 1999), this fact is of little comfort to the workers in the fossil fuel sector

who are likely to lose their jobs as a result of climate protection policies. Protecting these

workers is not only the right thing to do for them and their families but is a prerequisite to

building the broad-based support that is required for the implementation of strong climate change

mitigation measures. Unless workers and communities have a say in policy formation and are

protected against the unintended effects of climate policies, there is likely to be a backlash that

threatens the whole effort.

CONCLUSION

When Governor Murphy signed the “Renewable Energy Bill” (A-3723) into law in May of

2018, New Jersey reclaimed its role as a national policy leader on climate change and opened the

door to a clean energy economy. The state now joins California, Hawaii, New York, and

Vermont as the only five states requiring 50% renewable energy by 2030. Together, these states

boast some of America’s largest clean energy workforces per capita—led by California’s

520,000 green jobs—and all have thriving economies with annual GDP growth rates that are

higher than the U.S. average (O’Boyle and Blumenthal, 2018). Understanding the changes

currently underway in New Jersey provides valuable insight into one element of the future of

work in our state.

The adoption of climate-safe energy technologies will not only reduce GHG emissions but

will also create tens of thousands of new jobs across dozens of occupations with a variety of skill

sets. The transition will unfortunately also mean the erosion of some existing jobs in the fossil

fuel sector. Some of the new energy jobs require similar skills as current energy occupations, but

there is not likely to be a one-to-one match. Through an assortment of policy options, state

policy-makers can shape the character of the green transition to ensure that New Jersey’s

workers are taken care of and the benefits of green technology are maximized while any

unwanted side effects are minimized. By leading the way on climate mitigation, environmental

justice, and just transition, New Jersey can set a strong example for other states to follow.

While this report was able to offer some insight into the types of occupational changes

that are likely to occur by meeting the state’s commitments in the GWRA, it suffers from many

limitations. In particular, the broad scope of the report has limited the depth of the assessment.

Future research should build from this preliminary analysis by doing a deep dive into each of the

mitigation strategies in greater detail. More extensive economic modelling can provide a more

detailed picture of the jobs impacts that can be expected as well as the likely timeframe for

implementation of each mitigation strategy.

31 
 
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33 
 
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ENDNOTES

The committee recommended jumpstarting the state’s most promising new clean energy industry, offshore

wind—the governor has since called for 3,500 MW by the year 2030. Other recommendations include stabilizing

the state’s solar market, utilizing 100% of the Clean Energy Fund to advance energy efficiency and grow the clean-

energy economy, and utilizing the multi-state Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on Zero Emissions Vehicles

as a springboard for the electrification of the state’s transportation system.

The committee recommended rejoining the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and committing to

emissions reduction goals laid out in the Paris Climate Agreement. The committee also recommended reinstating

the DEP Office of Climate Change, advancing statewide climate literacy programs in schools, and promoting “Green

STEM” initiatives and other trainings to prepare the workforce for new climate technologies.

The committee recommended a comprehensive environmental justice initiative that includes an interagency

environmental justice task force. They recommend that every state agency should consider environmental justice

issues in all of their actions, including analyzing cumulative impacts to reduce health disparities, creating new

initiatives to improve communities’ quality of life such as the provision of open space, clean energy, walkways and

bike paths, and green jobs opportunities for historically marginalized workers.

Changes to industrial processes will also be required but are beyond the scope of this report.

Other clean vehicle technology such as fuel cell vehicles are also an option, but due to space limitations are not

evaluated in this report.

Combustion engine vehicles emit 11,435lbs of CO

per year. Based on New Jersey’s current electricity mix, EVs

emit 2444lbs of CO

per year, plug-in hybrid vehicles emit 4,841lbs of CO

per year, and hybrids emit 6,258lbs of

CO2 per year. The GHG reductions for these electric and hybrid vehicles will increase as electricity generation is

sourced more from renewable energy sources.

The European Union, Greenway, and Clean Technica have compiled a useful handbook titled Electric Vehicle

Charging Infrastructure: Guidelines for Cities, which can be accessed at:

https://www.drivegreen.nj.gov/GuidelinesforCities.pdf

Public planners should see Agenbroad and Holland 2014 for a detailed discussion of the various types of charging

stations and associated planning processes.

Estimate of work hours derived from Austin (2014). Estimate of number of detached homes derived from U.S.

Census Bureau (2000).

For a first-hand description of the job of electrical vehicle charging station installer, see U.S. Department of

Energy (2014a).

Based upon the estimated average that 1 mile travelled by car emits 1 lb of CO

(Megna 2016)

Direct jobs include development, manufacturing, construction, and other onsite jobs. Induced jobs are those

created by the spending that is supported by the project (for example in retail and service occupations).

These estimates are in line with previous projections by the Northeast Wind Center (2017) which utilized an

economic model developed by the University of the Highlands and Islands in Scotland and estimated the creation

of 36,300 full time wind jobs throughout the region, including New Jersey. Importantly, early adopters will gain the

most employment benefits.

For a detailed discussion of occupations and workforce development pertaining to offshore wind construction,

see Gould and Cresswell’s (2017) study on New York.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (2018a) offers considerably more conservative estimates of just 750 solar PV

installer jobs in New Jersey in 2017. The discrepancy likely comes from the different definition of occupations as

well as the employment of construction trades occupations in commercial solar installation—a situation that

would lead the solar institute to count the job as a solar installer, but the BLS to classify it as a carpenter, laborer,

welder, etc. based on their own occupational classification system.

For a comprehensive review of occupations in the solar industry, see the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “Careers in

Solar Report” at https://www.bls.gov/green/solar_power/ .

Using the more conservative BLS occupational classification for solar installers, the estimated growth in solar

installer jobs would be much greater as the starting point would be just 750 workers. However, given the number

of other occupations involved in solar installation projects, it seems more appropriate to begin with the more

liberal baseline estimate from the National Solar Survey which yields more conservative estimates for solar job

growth.

Examples of proposed just transition policies include the Clean Energy Worker Just Transition Act at the federal

level (https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/2398 ) and the Climate and Community

Investment Act in New York State (https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2017/s7645 ).

Figure 1. New Jersey's Total CO

Emissions Levels, 2000-2015

2006

100

110

120

130

140

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

million metric tons of carbon dioxide

New Jersey CO

Emmissions

GWRA 2050 Target

Figure 2. New Jersey's Energy-Related CO

Emissions, 2015

Figure 3. Projected Energy Mix for 100% Renewable Electricity in New Jersey

55%

27%

10%

Offshore Wind Solar Plants Land-based Wind Rooftop Solar Tidal

Table 1. Occupations that Would Likely Decline as a Result of Climate Change Mitigation in New Jersey

Occupation

Typical Entry-Level

Education

Architecture and Engineering Occupations

Chemical Engineers Bachelor's 1,270 111,540

Petroleum Engineers Bachelor's 190 187,370

Construction Trades

Boilermakers HS, Apprenticeship 300 64,030

Carpenters HS, Apprenticeship 16,360 61,390

Electricians HS, Apprenticeship 16,490 70,850

Pipefitters and Plumbers HS, Apprenticeship 9,070 70,680

Installation, Maintenance and Repair

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General

HS, On-the-job training

30,530 45,530

Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations

Geological and Petroleum Technicians Associate's 60 66,930

Management Occupations

General and Operations Managers Bachelor's 42,930 167,790

Miscellaneous Managers Bachelor's 19,170 140,080

Office and Administrative

Administrative Assistants HS, some college 63,420 41,470

Bookkeeping and Accounting HS, some college 43,590 46,120

Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks

HS, On-the-job training

6,810 51,330

Production Occupations

Chemical Plant and System Operators

HS, On-the-job training

630 64,390

First Line Supervisors HS, Previous Experience 12,300 69,140

Gas Plant Operators

HS, On-the-job training

160 76,030

Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, Weighers

HS, On-the-job training

12,740 41,410

Machinists HS, Apprenticeship 4,110 49,910

Petroleum Pump and Refinery Operators

HS, On-the-job training

440 69,110

Power Distributors and Dispatchers

HS, On-the-job training

260 88,770

Power Plant Operators

HS, On-the-job training

570 80,530

Welding, Soldering, and Brazing HS, Tech training 770 33,750

Other Plant System Operators

HS, On-the-job training

300 64,830

Miscellaneous Production Workers

HS, On-the-job training

5,530 31,850

Sales and Related Occupations

Sales and Related

HS, On-the-job training

406,090 45,470

Service Occupations

Gas Station Attendants On-the-job training n/a 18,720

Transportation Occupations

Drivers/Sales Workers

HS, On-the-job training

8,610 33,400

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers On-the-job training 120,110 29,810

Pumping Station Operators On-the-job training 570 51,475

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook (2018b); Data USA (2018); U.S. Census, Current Population Survey (2018)

a -- this list is not exhaustive, but is rperesntative of the occupations directly employed in fossil fuels industries

b -- total includes all workers employed in this occupation in New Jersey, not just in natural gas power plants, oil refineries, etc.

Total Number of

Workers Employed

Average Annual

Income (FTE)

Table 2. Occupations that Would Likely Grow as a Result of Climate Change Mitigation in New Jersey

Occupation

Typical Entry-Level

Education

Architecture and Engineering

Architects Bachelor's 2,140 84,070

Civil Engineers Bachelor's 7,500 102,170

Electrical Engineers Bachelor's 3,630 107,370

Environmental Engineers Bachelor's 1,220 91,730

Health and Safety Engineers Bachelor's 450 104,720

Marine Engineers Bachelor's 130 85,590

Mechanical Engineers Bachelor's 5,080 93,100

Architectural and Civil Drafters Associate's 2,710 52,980

Engineering Technicians, except Drafters Associate's 880 74,800

Surveying and Mapping Technicians

HS, On-the-job training

550 48,750

Other Architecture and Engineering Occ.s

HS, On-the-job training

30,230 91,490

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media

Public Relations Specialists

Bachelor's

4,100 69,810

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance

Building Cleaning and Maintenance

On-the job training

126,370 31,400

Business and Financial Operations Occupations

Accountants and Auditors Bachelor's 37,110 91,400

Compliance Officers Bachelor's 10,800 81,440

Computer and Mathematical Occupations

Computer User Support Specialists Bachelor's 13,900 64,440

Computer Systems Analysts Bachelor's 13,170 105,750

Network and Systems Administrators Bachelor's 11,850 100,220

Operations Research Analysts Bachelor's 2,580 107,270

Software Developers Bachelor's 9,110 117,080

Construction Trades

Boilermakers HS, Apprenticeship 300 64,030

Carpenters HS, Apprenticeship 16,360 61,390

Cement Masons HS, Apprenticeship 2,980 60,740

Electricians HS, Apprenticeship 16,490 70,850

Insulation Workers HS, Apprenticeship 970 57,230

Iron Workers HS, Apprenticeship 1,300 80,650

Laborers HS, Apprenticeship 23,440 52,220

Line Installers and Repairers HS, Apprenticeship 1,630 81,490

Operating Engineers HS, Apprenticeship 5,550 71,250

Pile Drivers HS, Apprenticeship 180 78,940

Plumbers and Pipefitters HS, Apprenticeship 9,070 70,680

Solar Photovoltaic Installers HS, Apprenticeship 750 43,620

Inspectors

HS, On-the-job training

4,430 65,890

Other Trades HS, Apprenticeship 51,460 60,710

Education and Training

Post-Secondary Teachers PhD 37,540 93,529

Technical Education Teachers Bachelor's, Masters 2,370 70,930

Other Instructors and Trainers Bachelor's 4,275 53,875

Installation, Maintenance and Repair

Electrical and Electronics Repairers HS, Technical Training 500 82,820

Electrical Power-line iIntallers, Repairers

HS, On-the-job Training

1,630 81,490

First-Line Supervisors HS, previous experience 12,250 74,140

HVAC Mechanics and Installers HS, Apprenticeship 9,680 58,770

Telecommunications Equipt Installers, Repairers HS, Technical Training 4,280 58,900

Wind Turbine Service Technicians HS, Technical Training <100 57,500

Maintenance and Repair Workers, All Other HS, Technical Training 30,530 45,530

Legal Occupations

Lawyers Juris Doctorate 20,730 140,340

Paralegals and Legal Assistants Associate's 8,060 81,650

Technology

Total Number of

Workers Employed

Average Annual

Income (FTE)

Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations

Urban and Regional Planners Masters 410 7,890

Biological Scientists Master's, PhD 6,220 83,425

Environmental Scientists Master's, PhD 2,790 86,740

Materials Scientist Master's, PhD 200 104,340

Other Life and Physical Scientists Master's, PhD 720 91,910

Science Technicians Bachelor's 750 52,570

Management Occupations

Construction Managers Bachelor's 5,720 138,980

General and Operations Managers Bachelor's 42,930 167,790

Human Resources Managers Bachelor's 3,740 162,540

Industrial Production Managers Bachelor's 4,880 131,400

Public Relations Managers Bachelor's 1,830 161,860

Purchasing Managers Bachelor's 1,850 161,130

Miscellaneous Managers Associate's, Bachelor's 19,170 140,080

Office and Administrative

Administrative Assistants HS 63,420 41,470

Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing HS, Some College 43,590 46,120

Meter Readers, Utilities

HS, On-the-job Training

1,030 43,410

Other Office and Administrative Support HS, Some College 544,990 40,690

Production Occupations

Computer Control Operators and Programmers

HS, Tech Training

3,620 53,955

Engine and Other Machine Assemblers

HS, On-the-job Training

300 41,130

First-Line Supervisors

HS, previous experience

12,300 69,140

Forming Machine Setters, Operators, Tenders HS, Tech Training 2,100 36,320

Machinists HS, Apprenticeship 4,110 49,910

Power Distributors and Dispatchers

HS, On-the-job Training

260 88,770

Structural Metal Fabricators and Fitters

HS, On-the-job Training

7,120 47,180

Welding, Soldering, and Brazing High School, Tech training 770 33,750

Assemblers and Fabricators, All Other

HS, On-the-job Training

18,830 39,480

Sales and Related Occupations

Sales and Related

HS, On-the-job Training

406,090 45,470

Service Occupations

Charging Station Attendants On-the-job Training n/a 18,720

Transportation Occupations

Bus Operators HS, CDLTraining 7,350 46,800

Drivers/Sales Workers

HS, On-the-job Training

8,610 33,400

Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators

HS, On-the-job Training

17,640 36,760

Laborers and Freight, Stock, Material Movers On-the-job Training 120,110 29,810

Rail Transportation Workers

HS, On-the-job Training

3,255 61,623

Water Transportation Workers HS, Credentialing 1,200 55,732

EV Charging Infrastructure

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics (2018)

Mass Transit

a -- this list is not exhaustive, but represents occupations most likely to grow

Wind Power

b -- total includes all workers employed in this occupation in New Jersey, not

Solar Power

just those employed in wind, solar, etc.

Energy Efficiency c -- this is the current salary of the over 10,000 gas station attendants who

Grid Modernization

could transition to the job of charging station attendant

KEY

Transportation

Electric Power

Generation

Residential,

Commercial, Industrial

NOTES

Table 3. Projected Job Growth and Salaries by Occupational Group for a 3,500MW Offshore

Wind Project in New Jersey

Occupational Group

Management Occupations 2,000-2,200 149,770

Business and Financial Operations Occupations 600-800 84,950

Computer and Mathematical Occupations 100-200 100,540

Architecture and Engineering Occupations 1,200-1,400 91,490

Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations 40-60 95,430

Legal Occupations 40-60 112,690

Education, Training, and Library Occupations 40-60 59,840

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations 80-100 60,030

Protective Services 40-60 55,700

Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations 80-100 26,320

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations 80-100 31,400

Sales and Related Occupations 100-200 45,470

Office and Administrative Support Occupations 500-700 40,690

Construction and Extraction Occupations 400-600 60,710

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations 3,800-4,200 53,170

Production Occupations 4,000-4,500 39,100

Transportation and Material Moving Occupations 700-900 37,300

Total Jobs: 14,000-16,000 Average Salary: 67,329

Projections based upon the harmonization of JEDI estimates and occupational growth figures from previous offshore wind studies

Projected Number of Jobs

Created for 3,500MW Project

Average Annual Salary in

New Jersey

Table 3. Projected Job Growth and Salaries by Occupational Group for a 3,500MW Offshore Wind Project in New Jersey