FUTURE OF
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC
Deployment, investment,
technology, grid integration and
socio-economic aspects
A Global Energy Transformation paper
© IRENA 2019
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ISBN 978-92-9260-156-0
Citation
IRENA (2019), Future of Solar Photovoltaic: Deployment, investment, technology, grid integration and socio-economic
aspects (A Global Energy Transformation: paper), International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.
This document presents additional findings from Global energy transformation: A roadmap to 2050 (2019 edition) available
for download from www.irena.org/publications. For further information or to provide feedback, please contact IRENA
at [email protected].
About IRENA
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platform for co-operation, a centre of excellence, a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge,
and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system. IRENA promotes the
widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower,
ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon
economic growth and prosperity.
Acknowledgements
This report benefited from input and review of experts: Anshu Bhaeadwaj, Jain Pratah, Ghosh Saptak (Centre for Study of
Science, Technoogy and Policy), Raed Bkayrat (Clean Tech Advisor & Entrepreneur), Nabih Cherradi (Desert Technologies),
Stefan Nowak (International Energy Agency Photovoltaic Power System Programme), Rajeev Gyani, Rakesh Kumar,
Remesh Kumar, Arun Misra, Seth Shishir, Upendra Tripathy (International Solar Alliance), Dave Renne (International Solar
Energy Society), Christian Thiel and Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau (Joint Research Centre), Kristen Ardani, David Feldman and
Robert Margolis (National Renewable Energy Laboratory), Aurelie Beauvais, Bruce Douglas, Raffaele Rossi, Michael
Schmela (Solar Power Europe), Frank Haugwitz (Solar Promotion International GmbH), George Kelly (Sunset Technology).
Valuable review and feedback were provided by IRENA colleagues: Francisco Boshell, Paul Komor, Neil MacDonald,
Pablo Ralon, Michael Taylor and IRENA’s Policy Team. The editor of this report was James French-Brooks.
Contributing authors: This report was developed under the guidance of Dolf Gielen and Ricardo Gorini
and was authored by Elisa Asmelash and Gayathri Prakash, with additional contributions and support from
Rodrigo Leme and Giacomo Gallina.
IRENA is grateful for the generous support of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy of Germany,
which made the publication of this report a reality.
Disclaimer
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The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of the Members of IRENA. The mention of
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2
FIGURES 4
ABBREVIATIONS 6
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7
1 ENERGY TRANSFORMATION PATHWAYS AND SOLAR PV 2
 PathwaysfortheGlobalEnergyTransformation 
 TheEnergyTransformationRationale 
 GlobalEnergyTransformationTheroleofsolarPV 
2 THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS 9
 EvolutionofthesolarPVindustry 
 SolarPVoutlookto 
3 TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS AND INNOVATIONS TO INTEGRATE RISING SHARES
OF SOLAR PV POWER GENERATION 34
4 SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION 39
 Technologyexpansion 
5 FUTURE SOLAR PV TRENDS 40
 Materialsandmodulemanufacturing 
 ApplicationsBeyondfieldsandrooftops 
 Operationandmaintenance 
 End-oflifemanagementofsolarpv 
6 SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND OTHER BENEFITS OF SOLAR PV IN THE CONTEXT OF
THE ENERGY TRANSFORMATION 54
 Solarpvsectoremploymentandlocalvaluechains 
 Clusteringwithotherlow-carbontechnologieshybridsystem 
7 STRUCTURING PV BUSINESS MODELS ACCORDING TO HOW THEY COMPETE WITH
OTHER GENERATION SOURCES 59
8 ACCELERATING SOLAR PV DEPLOYMENT: BARRIERS AND SOLUTIONS 6
 Deploymentpolicies 
 Integratingpolicies 
 Enablingpolicies 
REFERENCES 68
CONTENTS
- 3 -
FIGURES
FigureES StatusandfutureofSolarPhotovoltaics(PV)-Trackingprogresstoaccelerate
solarPVdeploymenttoachieveParisClimatetargets 
Figure Pressingneedsandattractiveopportunitiesaredrivingtheongoing
energytransformation 
Figure Renewablesandefficiencymeasuresboostedbysubstantialelectrification
canprovideoverofthenecessaryCOemissionreductionsby 
Figure SolarPVwouldhavethelargestinstalledcapacityexpansionby 
Figure SolarpvwouldcontributetoGtofCOemissionsreductionsinrepresenting
oftheenergy-sectoremissionsreductionsneededtomeetparisclimategoals 
Figure Majormilestonesachievedbythesolarindustry 
Figure ComparedtolevelscumulativesolarPVcapacityisexpectedtogrow
SIXFOLDbywithaCAGRofnearlyUPTO 
Figure Amongtheworld’sregionsAsiaispoisedtodominateglobalsolarPVinstallations
intheremapscenariofollowedbyNorthAmericaandEurope 
Figure AnnualGlobalsolarPVadditionsareexpectedtoreachtoGWinand
GWinundertheremapscenariocomparedwithGWin 
Figure Globalpowercapacityoff-GridsolarPV–SourceIRENA(a) 
Figure TherehasbeenarapiddeclineintotalinstalledcostsofsolarPV
withcostsexpectedtofurtherdeclineby 
Figure Totalinstalledcostofutility-scalesolarPVselectedcountries– 
Figure Thelevelizedcostofe^lectricity(LCOE)forsolarPVisalreadycompetitivenowcompared
toallfossilfuelgenerationsourcesandwouldbefullycompetitiveinafewyears 
Figure TheLCOEforprojectsandglobalweightedaveragevaluesforsolarPV– 
Figure ScalingupsolarPVenergyinvestmentiskeytoacceleratethepaceof
globalsolarPVinstallationsoverthecomingdecades 
Figure RegionalannualinvestmentinsolarPVcapacity(newandreplacement)
–(USDbillionyr) 
Figure Solargenerationprojectionsinandglobalenergyscenarios 
Figure TheHigherpenetrationofsolarpowerinelectricitygridsisforeseenin
variouscountriesbyand 
Figure Powersystemflexibilityenablersintheenergysector 
Figure Additionalinvestmentsarerequiredingridsgenerationadequacyand
someflexibilitymeasures(suchasstorage)acrosstheentireelectricitysystem
tointegrateraisingsharesofvariablerenewablesources 
Figure Thefourdimensionsofinnovation 
Figure SolarPVvaluechain 
- 4 -
Figure SolarPVtechnologystatus 
Figure ThesolarPVindustryemployedmillionpeopleworldwideinandthis
numberisexpectedtorisefurthertomillionpeoplebyintheREmapcase 
Figure WomeninSTEMNON-STEMTechnicalandadministrativejobsintheEnergySector 
Figure MaterialsrequiredforaMWsolarpvplant 
Figure Distributionofhumanresourcesandoccupationalrequirementsalongthe
valuechain(MWsolarPV) 
Figure ExistingbarrierstofosteringsolarPVdeployment 
Figure Thepolicyframeworkforajusttransition 
BOXES
Box Practicaloptionsforglobalenergydecarbonisation 
Box DeploymentofrooftopsolarPVsystemsfordistributedgeneration 
Box SolarPVforoff-gridsolutions 
Box CurrentAuctionandPPAdataforsolarPVandtheimpactondrivingdownLCOEs 
Box ThefuturepotentialofsolarComparisonwithotherenergyscenarios 
Box PowersystemflexibilitytointegratearisingshareofVRE 
Box InnovationlandscapetointegratehighsharesofVRE 
Box SolarPVperformanceunderextremeweatherevents 
Box TheimportenceofstandardsinthesolarPVindustry 
Box IRENA’Sworkongenderbalanceintheenergysector 
Box Hybridrenewablesdevelopments 
Box PVbusinessmodels 
Thevisualisationillustrates the changes witnessed in temperaturesacrosstheglobeoverthepastcenturyand
moreThecolourofeachstriperepresentsthetemperatureofasingleyearorderedfromtheearliestavailable
dataateachlocationtonowThecolourscalerepresentsthechangeinglobaltemperaturescoveringC
Annualglobaltemperaturesfrom–WarmingStripesbyEdHawkinsclimatescientistinthe
NationalCentreforAtmosphericScience(NCAS)attheUniversityofReading
- 5 -
ABBREVIATIONS
APV agrophotovoltaic
BoS balanceofsystem
BNEF BloombergNewEnergyFinance
BIPV building-integratedphotovoltaic
CAGR compoundannualgrowthrate
CAPEX capitalexpenditure
CdTe cadmiumtelluride
CIGS copper-indium-gallium-diselenide
CO carbondioxide
C-Si crystallinesilicon
CSP concentratingsolarpower
DC directcurrent
DER distributedenergyresources
DG distributedgeneration
DSO distributionsystemoperator
EMEA EuropetheMiddleEastandAfrica
EU EuropeanUnion
EV electricvehicle
FIT feed-intariff
G GroupofTwenty
GBP Britishpound
GCC GulfCooperationCouncil
Gt gigatonne
GW gigawatt
GWEC GlobalWindEnergyCouncil
HVAC high-voltagealternatingcurrent
HVDC high-voltagedirectcurrent
IRENA InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency
IPCC IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange
ITRPV InternationalTechnologyRoadmapfor
Photovoltaic
kW kilowatt
kWh kilowatthour
LCOE levelisedcostofelectricity
m squaremetre
MW megawatt
MWh megawatthour
NREL USNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory
O&M operationsandmaintenance
OPEX operatingexpenditure
PERC passivatedemitterandrearcellcontact
PPA powerpurchaseagreement
PV photovoltaic
PV-T photovoltaic-thermal
R&D researchanddevelopment
REmap IRENA’srenewableenergyroadmap
STEM sciencetechnologyengineeringand
mathematics
TW terawatt
TWh terawatthour
VPP virtualpowerplant
VRE variablerenewableenergy
USD USdollar
W watt
- 6 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
THEDECARBONISATIONOFTHEENERGYSECTORANDTHEREDUCTIONOFCARBONEMISSIONSTOLIMIT
CLIMATE CHANGE ARE AT THEHEARTOF THE INTERNATIONALRENEWABLE ENERGY AGENCY(IRENA)
ENERGYTRANSFORMATIONROADMAPSTheseroadmapsexamineandprovideanambitiousyettechnically
andeconomicallyfeasiblepathwayforthedeploymentoflow-carbontechnologytowardsasustainableand
cleanenergyfuture
IRENAHASEXPLOREDTWOENERGYDEVELOPMENTOPTIONSTOTHEYEARASPARTOFTHE
EDITIONOFITSGLOBALENERGYTRANSFORMATIONREPORT
Thefirstisanenergypathwaysetbycurrent
andplannedpolicies(ReferenceCase)Thesecondisacleanerclimate-resilientpathwaybasedlargelyonmore
ambitious yet achievable uptakeofrenewableenergy andenergyefficiency measures(REmap Case)which
limitstheriseinglobaltemperaturetowellbelowdegreesandclosertodegreesalignedwithintheenvelope
ofscenariospresentedinthereportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)
THEPRESENTREPORTOUTLINE STHEROLEOFSOLARPHOTOVOLTAIC(PV)POWERINTHETRANSFORMATION
OF THE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM BASED ON IRENA’S CLIMATE-RESILIENT PATHWAY (REMAP CASE)
specificallythegrowthinsolarPVpowerdeploymentthatwouldbeneededinthenextthreedecadestoachieve
theParisclimategoals
Thisreport’sfindingsaresummarisedasfollows
n
ACCELERATED DEPLOYMENT OF RENEWABLES COMBINED WITH DEEP ELECTRIFICATION AND
INCREASEDENERGYEFFICIENCYCANACHIEVEOVEROFTHEENERGY-RELATEDCARBONDIOXIDE
(CO)EMISSIONREDUCTIONSNEEDEDBYTOSETTHEWORLDONANENERGYPATHWAYTOWARDS
MEETINGTHEPARISCLIMATETARGETSAmongalllow-carbontechnologyoptionsaccelerateddeployment
ofsolarPValonecanleadtosignificantemissionreductionsofgigatonnesofcarbondioxide(GtCO)in
representingofthetotalemissionmitigationpotentialintheenergysector
n
ACHIEVING THE PARIS CLIMATE GOALS WOULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION ACROSS A
RANGEOFSECTORSANDTECHNOLOGIESBysolarPVwouldrepresentthesecond-largestpower
generationsourcejustbehindwindpowerandleadthewayforthetransformationoftheglobalelectricity
sector Solar PV would generate a quarter () of total electricity needs globally becoming one of
prominentgenerationssourceby
- 7 -
n SUCH A TRANSFORMATION IS ONLY POSSIBLE BY SIGNIFICANTLY SCALING UP SOLAR PV CAPACITY IN
NEXTTHREEDECADESThisentailsincreasingtotalsolarPVcapacityalmostsixfoldoverthenexttenyearsfrom
aglobaltotalofGWintoGWbyandtoGWby–anincreaseofalmosteighteen
timeslevels
n
THESOLARPVINDUSTRYWOULDNEEDTOBEPREPAREDFORSUCHASIGNIFICANTGROWTHINTHE
MARKETOVERTHENEXTTHREEDECADESInannualgrowthtermsanalmostthreefoldriseinyearlysolar
PVcapacityadditionsisneededby(toGWperyear)andafourfoldriseby(toGWper
year)comparedtocurrentlevels(GWaddedin)
ThankstoitsmodularanddistributednaturesolarPVtechnologyisbeingadaptedtoawiderangeofoff-grid
applicationsandtolocalconditionsInthelastdecade(–)thegloballyinstalledcapacityofoff-grid
solarPVhasgrownmorethantenfoldfromroughlyGWintoalmostGWinOff-gridsolar
PVisakeytechnologyforachievingfullenergyaccessandachievingtheSustainableDevelopmentGoals
n
ATAREGIONALLEVELASIAISEXPECTEDTODRIVETHEWAVEOFSOLARPVCAPACITYINSTALLATIONS
BEINGTHEWORLDLEADERSINSOLARPVENERGYAsia(mostlyChina)wouldcontinuetodominatesolarPV
powerintermsoftotalinstalledcapacitywithashareofmorethanbyfollowedbyNorthAmerica()
andEurope()
n
SCALING UP SOLAR PV ENERGY INVESTMENT IS CRITICAL TO ACCELERATING THE GROWTH OF
INSTALLATIONSOVERTHECOMINGDECADESGloballythiswouldimplyaincreaseinaverageannual
solarPVinvestmentfromnowuntil(toUSDbillionyr)SolarPVinvestmentstoodatUSDbillion
yrin
n
INCREASINGECONOMIESOFSCALEANDFURTHERTECHNOLOGICALIMPROVEMENTSWILLCONTINUE
TOREDUCETHECOSTSOFSOLARPVGloballythetotalinstallationcostofsolarPVprojectswouldcontinue
todeclineinthenextthreedecadesThiswouldmakesolarPVhighlycompetitiveinmanymarketswiththe
averagefallingintherangeofUSDtoperkilowatt(kW)byandUSDtokWby
comparedtotheaverageofUSDkWin
Thelevelisedcostofelectricity(LCOE)forsolarPVisalreadycompetitivecomparedtoallfossilfuelgeneration
sourcesandissettodeclinefurtherasinstalledcostsandperformancecontinuetoimproveGloballythe
LCOE for solar PV will continueto fallfrom an average of USD perkilowatt-hour(kWh) in  to
betweenUSDtokWhbyandbetweenUSDtokWhby
n
THESOLARPVINDUSTRYISAFAST-EVOLVINGINDUSTRYCHANGINGRAPIDLYTHANKSTOINNOVATIONS
ALONG THE ENTIRE VALUE CHAIN AND FURTHER RAPID COSTS REDUCTIONS ARE FORESEEN First-
generationtechnologiesremaintheprincipaldriverofsolarindustrydevelopmentandstillholdthemajorityof
themarketvalueTandemandperovskitetechnologiesalsoofferinterestingperspectivesalbeitinthelonger
term several barriers stillneedto beovercome The emergenceof newcell architectureshasenabled higher
efficiencylevelsInparticularthemostimportantmarketshiftincellarchitecturehasresultedfrombifacialcells
andmodulesdrivenbytheincreasedadoptionofadvancedcellarchitecturesuchaspassiveemitterandrearcell
(PERC)andbyitscompatibilitywithotheremerginginnovationssuchashalf-cutcellsandothers
n
TAKINGADVANTAGEOFFAST-GROWINGSOLARPVCAPACITYACROSSTHEGLOBESEVERALRESEARCH
PROJECTSANDPROTOTYPESAREONGOINGTOSTIMULATEFUTUREMARKETGROWTHBYEXPLORING
INNOVATIVE SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES AT THE APPLICATION LEVEL One example is building-integrated
photovoltaic (BIPV) solar panels BIPV solutions offer several advantages such as multifunctionality (they
can be adapted to a variety of surfaces) cost-efficiency (savings on roofing material labourconstruction
refurbishmentandrenovationcosts)versatilityanddesignflexibilityinsizeshapeandcolour
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- 8 -
SolarpanelshaveimprovedsubstantiallyintheirefficiencyandpoweroutputoverthelastfewdecadesIn
theefficiencyofmulti-crystallinePVreachedwhilethatofmono-crystallinereachedThis
positivetrendisexpectedtocontinuethroughtoYetastheglobalPVmarketincreasessowillthe
needtopreventthedegradationofpanelsandmanagethevolumeofdecommissionedPVpanelsleadingto
circulareconomypractisesThisincludesinnovativeandalternativewaystoreducematerialuseandmodule
degradationandopportunitiestoreuseandrecyclePVpanelsattheendoftheirlifetime
n
TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS ENABLING MARKET CONDITIONS ARE ESSENTIAL TO
PREPAREFUTUREPOWERGRIDSTOINTEGRATERISINGSHARESOFSOLARPVToeffectivelymanage
large-scalevariablerenewableenergysourcesflexibilitymustbeharnessedinallsectorsoftheenergysystem
frompowergenerationtotransmissionanddistributionsystemsstorage(bothelectricalandthermal)and
increasinglyflexibledemand(demand-sidemanagementandsectorcoupling)Somecountriesparticularly
in Europe haveachieved much higher shares in the VRE share in Denmarkreached  in South
Australia andin Lithuania Ireland SpainandGermany over  Globallytointegrate variable
renewablegeneration(ofwhichfromsolarPV)byaverageannualinvestmentsingridsgeneration
adequacyandsomeflexibilitymeasures(storage)wouldneedtorisebymorethanone-quartertoUSD
billionyearcomparedtoinvestmentsmadeinelectricitynetworksandbatterystoragein(USD
billionyear)
n
INNOVATIVE BUSINESS MODELS AND COST COMPETITIVENESS OF SOLAR PV ARE DRIVING THE
REDUCTIONSINSYSTEMPRICESThedeploymentofrooftopsolarPVsystemshasincreasedsignificantly
inrecentyearsingreatmeasurethankstosupportingpoliciessuchasnetmeteringandfiscalincentives-
whichinsomemarketsmakePVmoreattractivefromaneconomicpointofviewthanbuyingelectricityfrom
thegrid-PV-hybridminigridvirtualpowerplantsandutilityPPAThecompetitivenessofdistributedsolar
powerisclearlyevidentamidrisingdeploymentinlargemarketssuchasBrazilChinaGermanyandMexico
howeverimportantdifferencesremainbetweencountrieswhichhighlightthefurtherimprovementpotential
n
IFACCOMPANIEDBYSOUNDPOLICIESTHETRANSFORMATIONCANBRINGSOCIO-ECONOMICBENEFITS
ThesolarPVindustrywouldemploymorethanmillionpeoplebyfivetimesmorethanthejobs
totalofmillionTomaximiseoutcomesoftheenergytransitionhoweveraholisticpolicyframeworkis
neededDeploymentpolicieswillneedtoco-ordinateandharmonisewithintegrationandenablingpolicies
Undertheenablingpolicyumbrellaparticularfocusisneededonindustrialfinancialeducationandskills
policiestomaximisethetransitionbenefitsEducationandskillspoliciescanhelpequiptheworkforcewith
adequateskills andwould increase opportunities forlocal employment Similarlysoundindustrial policies
thatbuildupondomesticsupplychainscanenableincomeandemploymentgrowthbyleveragingexisting
economicactivitiesinsupportofsolarPVindustrydevelopment
n
UNLEASHING THE MASSIVE POTENTIAL OF SOLAR PV IS CRUCIAL TO ACHIEVE CLIMATE TARGETS
Thisis onlypossiblebymitigatingthe currentbarriersatdifferentscales(policymarketandeconomic
technologyregulatorypoliticalandsocial)Gridintegrationandgridflexibilityeconomiesofscaleaccess
tofinancelackofstandardsandqualitymeasuresconsumerawarenessareamongthekeybarriersthat
couldhinderthedeploymentofsolarPVcapacitiesinthenextthreedecadesMitigatingtheexistingbarriers
immediately througha range ofsupportive policiesand implementationmeasures including innovative
businessmodelsfinancialinstrumentsisvitaltoboostfuturedeploymentofsolarPVcapacitiestoenable
thetransitiontoalow-carbonsustainableenergyfuture
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- 9 -
FigureES Statusandfutureofsolarphotovoltaics(PV)-Trackingprogressto
acceleratesolarPVdeploymenttoachieveParisClimatetargets
2010 2018
ON/OFF
TRACK
2050 2030
2010 2018
ON/OFF
TRACK
2050 2030
O track
Progress
O track
Energy-related CO
2
emissions under
current plans and planned policies
(Reference Case) (Gt CO
2
/yr)
Energy-related CO
2
emissions under
IRENA‘s climate resilient pathway
(REmap Case) (Gt CO
2
/yr)
Avoided emissions due to accelerated
deployment of solar PV coupled with
deep electrification
(Gt CO
2
/yr)
(REmap Case)
Solar PV generation share (%)
Solar PV (GW)
Solar PV (GW/yr)
Solar PV (USD billion/yr)
Solar PV (USD/kW)
Solar PV (USD/kWh)
Progress
Progress
Progress
On track
29.7
29.7 34.5 24.9 9.8
4.9
34.5 35 33.1
0.2 %
39 480 2 840
4 621 1 210 834 – 340
481 – 165
77
114
165
192
0.37 0.085 0.08 – 0.02 0.05 – 0.01
8 519
CO
2
EMISSIONS (ENERGY-RELATED) AND REDUCTION POTENTIAL BY SOLAR PV POWER
SOLAR PV POWER IN TOTAL GENERATION MIX
TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY
ANNUAL DEPLOYMENT
TOTAL INSTALLATION COST
LEVELIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY (LCOE)
AVERAGE ANNUAL INVESTMENT
Solar PV (million)
*The data denoted wind sector jobs by 2012
1.36* 3.6 11.7 18.7
EMPLOYMENT
25%2% 13%
17
94
270
372
Progress
REMAP CASE
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- 10 -
* The data denoted solar PV sector jobs by 2012
2010 2018
ON/OFF
TRACK
2050 2030
2010 2018
ON/OFF
TRACK
2050 2030
O track
Progress
O track
Energy-related CO
2
emissions under
current plans and planned policies
(Reference Case) (Gt CO
2
/yr)
Energy-related CO
2
emissions under
IRENA‘s climate resilient pathway
(REmap Case) (Gt CO
2
/yr)
Avoided emissions due to accelerated
deployment of solar PV coupled with
deep electrification
(Gt CO
2
/yr)
(REmap Case)
Solar PV generation share (%)
Solar PV (GW)
Solar PV (GW/yr)
Solar PV (USD billion/yr)
Solar PV (USD/kW)
Solar PV (USD/kWh)
Progress
Progress
Progress
On track
29.7
29.7 34.5 24.9 9.8
4.9
34.5 35 33.1
0.2 %
39 480 2 840
4 621 1 210 834 – 340
481 – 165
77
114
165
192
0.37 0.085 0.08 – 0.02 0.05 – 0.01
8 519
CO
2
EMISSIONS (ENERGY-RELATED) AND REDUCTION POTENTIAL BY SOLAR PV POWER
SOLAR PV POWER IN TOTAL GENERATION MIX
TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY
ANNUAL DEPLOYMENT
TOTAL INSTALLATION COST
LEVELIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY (LCOE)
AVERAGE ANNUAL INVESTMENT
Solar PV (million)
*The data denoted wind sector jobs by 2012
1.36* 3.6 11.7 18.7
EMPLOYMENT
25%2% 13%
17
94
270
372
Progress
REMAP CASE
2010 2018
ON/OFF
TRACK
2050 2030
2010 2018
ON/OFF
TRACK
2050 2030
O track
Progress
O track
Energy-related CO
2
emissions under
current plans and planned policies
(Reference Case) (Gt CO
2
/yr)
Energy-related CO
2
emissions under
IRENA‘s climate resilient pathway
(REmap Case) (Gt CO
2
/yr)
Avoided emissions due to accelerated
deployment of solar PV coupled with
deep electrification
(Gt CO
2
/yr)
(REmap Case)
Solar PV generation share (%)
Solar PV (GW)
Solar PV (GW/yr)
Solar PV (USD billion/yr)
Solar PV (USD/kW)
Solar PV (USD/kWh)
Progress
Progress
Progress
On track
29.7
29.7 34.5 24.9 9.8
4.9
34.5 35 33.1
0.2 %
39 480 2 840
4 621 1 210 834 – 340
481 – 165
77
114
165
192
0.37 0.085 0.08 – 0.02 0.05 – 0.01
8 519
CO
2
EMISSIONS (ENERGY-RELATED) AND REDUCTION POTENTIAL BY SOLAR PV POWER
SOLAR PV POWER IN TOTAL GENERATION MIX
TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY
ANNUAL DEPLOYMENT
TOTAL INSTALLATION COST
LEVELIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY (LCOE)
AVERAGE ANNUAL INVESTMENT
Solar PV (million)
*The data denoted wind sector jobs by 2012
1.36* 3.6 11.7 18.7
EMPLOYMENT
25%2% 13%
17
94
270
372
Progress
REMAP CASE
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- 11 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV ENERGY TRANSFORMATION PATHWAYS AND SOLAR PV
1. ENERGY TRANSFORMATION PATHWAYS
AND SOLAR PV
 PATHWAYSFORTHEGLOBALENERGYTRANSFORMATION
1 For more on the global roadmap and its underlying analysis, see www.irena.org/remap.
The InternationalRenewable Energy Agency(IRENA)
hasexploredglobalenergydevelopmentoptionsfrom
twomainperspectivestotheyearaspartofthe
editionofitsGlobalEnergyTransformationreport
(IRENAa)Thefirstisanenergypathwaysetby
current and planned policies (the Reference Case)
andthesecondisacleanerclimate-resilientpathway
based largely on a more ambitious yet achievable
uptake of renewable energy and energy efficiency
measures(theREmapCase)
BoxPRACTICALOPTIONSFORGLOBALENERGYDECARBONISATION
IRENA’srenewableenergyroadmaporREmapapproachandanalysisincludesseveralkeysteps(IRENAa)
• Identifyingthecurrentplansforglobalenergydevelopmentasabaselinescenario(orReferenceCase)asfar
asThispresentsascenariobasedongovernments’currentenergyplansandotherplannedtargetsand
policies including climate commitments madesince  in Nationally Determined Contributions underthe
ParisAgreement
• Assessingtheadditionalpotentialforscalinguporoptimisinglow-carbontechnologiesandapproachesincluding
renewableenergyenergyefficiencyandelectrificationwhilealsoconsideringtheroleofothertechnologies
• Developingarealisticpracticalenergytransformationscenarioreferredtoasthe“REmapCase”Thiscallsfor
considerablyfasterdeploymentoflow-carbontechnologiesbasedlargelyonrenewableenergyandenergy
efficiencyresultinginatransformationinenergyusetokeeptheriseinglobaltemperaturesthiscenturywell
below C andclosertoC comparedto pre-industrial levels The scenariofocuses primarily on cutting
energy-relatedcarbon-dioxide(CO) emissionswhichmakeuparoundtwo-thirdsofglobalgreenhousegas
emissions
• Analysing the costs benefits and investment needs of low-carbon technologies worldwide to achieve the
envisagedenergytransformation
Note: The findings in this report consider policy targets and developments until April 2019. Any new policy changes and targets
announced since then are not considered in the analysis and therefore could influence the findings presented in this report.
ThefindingsinthisreportarebasedonIRENA’sclimate-resilient
pathway(REmapCase)whichiswellbelowCandclosertotheC
carbonbudgetlevelsprovidedintheIPCCSpecialReportonGlobal
WarmingofC(SR)
- 12 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV ENERGY TRANSFORMATION PATHWAYS AND SOLAR PV
 THEENERGYTRANSFORMATIONRATIONALE
Reducingenergy-relatedCOemissionsisattheheart
of the energy transformation Rapidly shifting the
worldawayfromtheconsumptionoffossilfuelsthat
causeclimatechangeandtowardscleanerrenewable
formsofenergyiscriticaliftheworldistoreachthe
climategoalsagreedinParisTherearemanydrivers
behindthistransformation(Figure)
Firsttherapiddeclineinrenewableenergycosts
The global weighted average cost of electricity
from all commercially available renewable power
generationtechnologiescontinuedtofallinFor
examplethefallinthecostofelectricityfromutility-
scale solar photovoltaic (PV) projects since 
hasbeenremarkable–betweenandthe
globalweightedaveragelevelisedcostofelectricity
(LCOE) from solar PV declined by  Recent
record low auction outcomes for solar PV in Abu
DhabiChileDubaiMexicoPeruandSaudi Arabia
haveshown that anLCOE of USD

per kilowatt
hour(kWh)ispossibleinawidevarietyofnational
contexts(IRENA)SimilarlyinEuropeoffshore
wind projects are now increasingly competing
with fossil-fired sources on a subsidy-free basis in
wholesaleelectricitymarkets(egsubsidy-freebids
inGermanyandtheNetherlands)whileintheUnited
Statesnon-hydropowerrenewableenergyresources
such as solar PV andwind areexpected to be the
fastest-growing source of electricity generation in
thenexttwoyears
Second air quality improvements Air pollution
is a major public health crisis mainly caused by
unregulatedinefficientandpollutingenergysources
(eg fossil fuel combustion chemical-related
emissions) The switch to clean renewable energy
sourceswouldimprovetheairqualityincitiesandbring
greaterprosperitybyreducingillhealthandincreasing
productivity With the rise in usage of renewables
dropinnetenergysubsidieswouldpotentiallyleadto
declinein healthcostsfromair pollutionandclimate
effects The savings from reduced externalities with
respecttoairpollutionandclimatechangealongwith
avoided subsidies outweigh the additional energy
systemForeverydollarinvestedintransformingthe
globalenergysystemovertheperiodtothereis
apayoff ofatleastUSD
andpotentially morethan
USD
 depending on how externalities are valued
(IRENAa)
Thirdly reduction of carbon emissions The gap
betweenobservedemissionsandthereductionsthat
are needed to meet internationally agreed climate
objectives is widening The transformation of the
globalenergysystemneedstoacceleratesubstantially
tomeettheobjectivesoftheParisAgreementwhich
aim to keep the rise in average global temperatures
to closer to 
degrees Celsius (C) in the present
century compared to pre-industrial levels A 
reduction inenergy-relatedemissionswould needed
bycomparedtocurrentlevels(IRENAa)
- 13 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV ENERGY TRANSFORMATION PATHWAYS AND SOLAR PV
Then transforming the global energy system would
alsoimproveenergysecurityandenhanceaffordable
and universal energy access For countries heavily
dependent on imported fossil fuels energy security
is a significant issue Renewables can provide an
alternative by increasing the diversity of energy
sourcesthroughlocalgenerationthuscontributingto
theflexibilityofthesystemandresistancetoshocks
Similarlyenergyaccess isan areaof greatinequality
andrenewableenergytechnologiescanbeappliedin
ruralareaswherethegridhasyettoreachharnessing
ruralelectrificationcommunity energy initiatives and
distributedenergyresources(DER)
Finallytransformingtheglobalenergysystemwould
also bring significant socio-economic benefits
whicharecrucialtoinfluencinganypoliticaldecision
Thedevelopmentofalocalrenewableenergyindustry
hasthepotentialtocreatejobsthatcanaccommodate
menandwomenfromalldisciplinesandbackgrounds
Should local industries not be developed countries
withenergysecurityproblemswouldjustmovefrom
importing fossil fuelstoimporting renewableenergy
equipment(IRENAaIRENAb)
Figure Pressingneedsandattractiveopportunitiesaredrivingtheongoingenergytransformation
Note: The key drivers for energy transformation presented in this figure is based on IRENA’s REmap Case by 2050 compared to current levels.
Source: (IRENA, 2019b)
COEMISSIONREDUCTIONSASAMAJORGOAL
Decarbonisingtheenergysectorandreducingcarbonemissionsto
limitclimatechangeareattheheartofIRENA’senergytransformation
roadmapswhichexamineandprovideanambitiousyettechnically
andeconomicallyfeasiblepathwayforthedeploymentoflow-carbon
technologytowardsasustainableandcleanenergyfuture
ENERGY
TRANSFORMATION
by 2050
FALLING
ENERGY COSTS
Renewables
fully competitive
REDUCED
CARBON EMISSIONS
70% lower
JOB CREATION
7 million
more jobs
economy-wide
REDUCED
IMPACT, GREATER
ECONOMIC GAIN
USD 3-7 payo
for each
USD 1 spent
IMPROVED
ENERGY SECURITY
-64% demand
of fossil fuels
FULL ENERGY
ACCESS
100% energy
access
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV ENERGY TRANSFORMATION PATHWAYS AND SOLAR PV
 GLOBALENERGYTRANSFORMATIONTHEROLEOFSOLARPV
Climatechangehasbecomeamajorconcernofthis
centuryTheParisAgreementestablishesamechanism
to limit global temperature rise to “well below C”
andideallytoCcomparedtopre-industriallevels
The profound transformation of the global energy
landscape is essential to realise the agreement’s
climatetargetsSuchatransformationispossiblewith
the rapid deployment of low-carbon technologies in
placeofconventionalfossilfuelgenerationanduses
Tosettheworldonapathwaytowardsmeetingthe
aims of the Paris Agreement energy-related CO
emissions need to be reduced by around  per
yearfromnowuntilwithcontinuedreductions
thereafter The transition to increasingly electrified
forms of transport and heat when combined with
increases in renewable power generation would
deliveraroundoftheenergy-relatedCOemission
reductions needed by  If additional reductions
from direct use of renewables are considered the
shareincreasestoWhenaddingenergyefficiency
theshareincreasestooveroftheenergy-related
COemissionreductionsneeded toset theworld on
a pathway to meeting the Paris Agreement targets
(Figure)(IRENAa)
Theenergytransformation wouldalsoboostgross
domestic product by  and total employment
bygloballybyInadditionitwouldbring
broader social and environmental benefits Health
subsidyandclimate-relatedsavingswouldbeworthas
much asUSDtrillion cumulativelyovera -year
period Thus every dollar spent in transforming the
global energy system provides a payoff of at least
USD
andpotentiallymorethanUSDdependingon
howexternalitiesarevalued(IRENAa)
Figure Renewablesandefficiencymeasuresboostedbysubstantialelectrificationcanprovideoverof
thenecessaryCOemissionreductionsby
Note: “Renewables” implies deployment of renewable technologies in the power sector (wind, solar PV, etc.) and direct end-use applications (solar
thermal, geothermal, biomass). “Energy efficiency” includes efficiency measures deployed in end-use applications in the industrial, buildings
and transport sectors (e.g. improving insulation of buildings or installing more efficient appliances and equipment). “Electrification” denotes
electrification of heat and transport applications, such as deploying heat pumps and electric vehicles (EVs); Gt = gigatonne; w/RE = with
renewable energy.
Source: (IRENA, 2019a)
Electrification
of heat and
transport w/RE:
36%
Renewable
energy:
39%
9.8 Gt in 2050
33 Gt in 2050
Renewable
energy and
electrification
deliver 75%
of emission
reductions
70% emission
reductions
resulting
from the
Energy
Transformation
Buildings
Transport
District heat
Power
Industry
Buildings
Transport
District heat
Power
Industry
Energy
eciency
and others:
25%
Energy related CO emissions (Gt/yr)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2015 20202010 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION
CURRENT PLANS
- 15 -
Scaling up electricity from renewables is crucial
for the decarbonisation of the world’s energy
systemThe most important synergy of the global
energy transformation comes from the combination
ofincreasing low-costrenewablepowertechnologies
and the wider adoption of electricity for end-use
applicationsintransportandheatTodelivertheenergy
transitionatthepaceandscaleneededwouldrequire
almost complete decarbonisation of the electricity
sector by  The REmap Case sets a pathway to
achieve a share of  for renewables in the power
generationmixby(Figure)Ontheenduseside
the share of electricity in final energy consumption
wouldincreasefromjusttodaytoalmostby
Theshareofelectricityconsumedinindustryand
2 A similar forthcoming IRENA working paper on wind explores the role of wind in the context of the global energy transformation to 2050 and will
available to download: www.irena.org/publications.
buildingswoulddoubleIntransportitwouldincrease
fromjusttodaytooverby(IRENAa)
Solaralongwithwindenergywouldleadtheway
inthetransformationoftheglobalelectricitysector
Wind power would be one of the major electricity
generationsourcessupplyingmorethanone-thirdof
totalelectricitydemandSolarPVpowerwouldfollow
supplyingoftotalelectricitydemandwhichwould
representoveratenfoldriseinthesolarPVshareof
thegenerationmixbycomparedtolevels
In the context of total installed capacity by 
muchgreatercapacityexpansionwouldbeneededfor
solarPV(gigawatts[GW])ascomparedtowind
(GW)
SOLARPV-APROMIENTGENERATIONSOURCEBY
AlongsidewindenergysolarPVwouldleadthewayinthetransformation
oftheglobalelectricitysectorCumulativeinstalledcapacityofsolarPV
wouldrisetoGWbybecomingthesecondprominentsource
(afterwind)by
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV ENERGY TRANSFORMATION PATHWAYS AND SOLAR PV
- 16 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV ENERGY TRANSFORMATION PATHWAYS AND SOLAR PV
FigureSolarPVwouldhavethelargestinstalledcapacityexpansionby
Notes: CSP = concentrating solar power; TWh = terawatt hour.
Source: IRENA (2019a).
- 17 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV ENERGY TRANSFORMATION PATHWAYS AND SOLAR PV
SOLARPVITSPOTENTIALTOMITIGATE
ENERGY-RELATEDCARBONEMISSIONS
Deploying more than GW of solar power
– capable of generating more than  of total
electricityneedsin–canpotentiallymitigate
a significant amount of emissions (GtCO)
This represents  of the total emission reduction
potential from renewables and energy efficiency
measures (Figure ) Among all low-carbon
technology options solar PV contributes to major
emissionsreductionpotentialbyThisismainly
due to the significant deployment of solar power
replacingconventionalpowergenerationsourcesby
utilisingtheampleresourceavailabilitywiththebest
technological solutions at better resource locations
across various regions and benefiting from drastic
cost reductions significant end-use electrification
of transport and heat applications shifting energy
demand to electricity thatcan then be supplied by
wind(eitherdirectlyorindirectlyforexamplepower-
to-hydrogen)andrisingsocio-economicbenefits
Figure SolarpvwouldcontributetoGtofCOemissionsreductionsinrepresentingofthe
overallenergy-sectoremissionsreductionsneededtomeetparisclimategoals
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35

Currentplansandpolicies

EnergyTransformation

Annual energy-related CO
2
emissions (Gt CO
2
/yr)
Reduction potentials in 2050



40
2050: >90% emissions reductions from
renewables, energy eciency measures
with substantial electrification.
Wind; 27%
Energy efficiency; 24%
SolarPV
Other RE (power)
and electrification of
heat and transport; 16%
Renewables
(direct end-use); 12%
ACCELERATEDSOLARPVDEPLOYMENTSCONTRIBUTESTOCO
EMISSIONSREDUCTIONS
Amongalllow-carbontechnologyoptionsaccelerateddeployment
ofsolarPVwhencoupledwithdeepelectrificationwouldcontribute
toalmostone-fifthofthetotalemissionsreductionsneeded
(nearlyGtCO)in
- 18 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS
2. THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF
SOLAR PV MARKETS
 EVOLUTIONOFTHESOLARPVINDUSTRY
Risingconcernsaboutclimatechangethehealth
effects of air pollution energy security and
energy access along with volatile oil prices in
recentdecadeshaveledtotheneedtoproduce
and use alternative low-carbon technology
options such as renewables Solar PV has been
oneofthepioneeringrenewabletechnologiesover
the decades The total installed capacity of solar
PV reached GW globally (excluding CSP) by
the end of  representing the second-largest
renewable electricity source after wind Last year
solarPVagaindominatedtotalrenewableandpower
capacity additionsadding twiceasmuchcapacity
as wind and more than all fossil fuels and nuclear
togethersolarPVadditionsreachingaroundGW
(IRENAc)
The evolution of the solar PV industry so far has
beenremarkablewithseveralmilestonesachieved
in recent years in terms of installations (including
off-grid) cost reductions and technological
advancementsaswellasestablishmentofkeysolar
energyassociations(Figure)
Solarpowerwillclearlycontinuetobeanessential
renewables option in the coming decades This
working paper sheds light on the prominent role of
solarPVintransformingtheglobalenergylandscape
byThefollowingsectionspresentanaccelerated
deployment pathway for solar PV until  under
the REmap Case from IRENA’s global energy
transformation roadmap together with perspectives
oncostreductionstechnologytrendsandtheneedto
preparefuturegridsforrisingsharesofsolarPV
- 19 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS
Figure Majormilestonesachievedbythesolarindustry
2018
• Global installed solar capacity: 480 GW
• Global average solar PV auction price 85 USD/MWh
• Off-grid solar PV reaches 2.94 GW (0.25 GW in 2008)
2017
• 4.5 million jobs in solar energy sector
• Global PV capacity ~400 GW
2016
• First solar plane flight
around the world
2010
• Global average solar PV auction price:
241 USD/MWh
1963
• Mass production of solar cells begins
1973
• The first solar building
“Solar One” is
constructed and
running on a hybrid
supply of solar thermal
and solar PV power.
1985
• The University of
South Wales achieves
20% efficiency for
silicon cells
1941
• First silicon monocrystalline cell is created
1954
• International Solar Energy Society is formed
2012
• The world’s cumulative PV electricity capacity
surpasses 100 gigawatts (GW)
KEY MILESTONES
IN SOLAR INDUSTRY
2015
• The Global Solar Council, the International
Solar Alliance and Solar Power Europe are formed
SOLARPVAFAST-GROWINGANDMATURERENEWABLE
ENERGYTECHNOLOGY
SolarPVisoneofthefastest-growingmostmatureand
cost-competitiverenewableenergytechnologies
- 20 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS
 SOLARPVOUTLOOKTO
3 In the REmap analysis, installed solar PV capacity includes utility-scale (60–80%), distributed rooftop (40–20%) and increased electricity access.
ACCELERATEDUPTAKEANDEMERGING
MARKETS
Thedeploymentofrenewableshasbeengrowing
at a rapid pace in recent years reaching record
levels and outpacing annual conventional power
capacity additions in many regions Among all
renewabletechnologiessolarPVpowerinstallations
have been dominating the renewables industry
for many years Asof the end of  theglobal
capacity of installed and grid-connected solar PV
powerreachedGW(Figure)representing
year-on-year growth compared to  (GW)
and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
nearlysince(IRENAc)
Consideringampleresourceavailabilitysignificant
marketpotentialandcostcompetitivenesssolarPV
isexpectedtocontinuedrivingoverallrenewables
growth in severalregionsoverthe next decade
Fromtoday’slevelsIRENA’sREmapanalysisshows
thatsolarPVpowerinstallationscouldgrowalmost
sixfoldoverthenexttenyearsreachingacumulative
capacity of GW globally by  and rising
to GW by 
This implies totalinstalled
capacityinalmosteighteentimeshigherthan
in(Figure)Atagloballevelaroundof
totalsolarPVcapacityinwouldbeutilityscale
withtheremainingdistributed(rooftop)While
utility-scale projects still predominate in 
the REmap analysis expects distributed solar PV
installationstogrowmorerapidlydrivenbypolicies
and supportive measures as well as consumer
engagement in the clean energy transformation
RecenttrendsindistributedsolarPVanditsbenefits
areexploredinBoxbelow
- 21 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS
Figure ComparedtolevelscumulativesolarPVcapacityisexpectedtogrowsixfoldby
withaCAGRofnearlyupto
0
2 000
1 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
Cumulative installed capacity (GW)
480 (2018)
1 (2000)
2 840 (2030)
8 519 (2050)
Historical Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
2050
8.9%
CAGR 2019–50
43%
CAGR 2000–18
Sources: Historical values based on IRENA’s renewable energy statistics (IRENA, 2019c) and future projections based on IRENA’s analysis (2019a).
RAPIDGROWTHINSOLARPVINSTALLATIONSTO
TheglobalinstalledcapacityofsolarPVwouldrisesix-foldby
(GW)andreachGWbycomparedtoinstallations
in(GW)
- 22 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS
BoxDEPLOYMENTOFROOFTOPSOLARPVSYSTEMS
FORDISTRIBUTEDGENERATION
Distributedenergyresources(DER)aresmallormedium-sizedpowersourcesthataremainlyconnectedto
thelowervoltagelevelsofthesystem(distributiongrid)neartheendusersTheycanpotentiallyprovide
servicestothepowersystem(EuropeanCommission)InthecontextofsolarPVdistributedgeneration
comesfromplantsconnectedatlowandmediumvoltagessuchassolarPVpanelsonrooftops
ThedeploymentofrooftopsolarPVsystemshasincreasedsignificantlyinrecentyearsashasdistributed
storageingreatmeasurethankstosupportingpoliciesmainlynetmeteringandfiscalincentivesandfalling
costs For example behind-the-meter storage business models allow consumers to store the electricity
generatedbyrooftopsolarPVandconsumeitlaterwhenneededorsellittothegrid
Indistributed-scalesolarPVcapacityadditionsamountedtoapproximatelyGW(IEAa)China
representstheleadingsolarmarketnotonlyinAsiabutalsointheworldwithdistributedplantscontributing
ofthecapacityinstalledinDistributedsolarhasbeengrowinginIndiaaswellwhereinstalled
rooftopcapacityreachedGWinrepresentingtheadditionofoverGWoverthepreviousyear
(SolarPowerEuropea)Thisincreasehoweverismarginalwhencomparedtoutility-scaleinstallations
in Indiawhichrepresented  of cumulativeinstalled capacity while distributed represented just 
Assuchpolicysupportisrequiredtointensifyoff-gridandrooftopinstallationsacrossthecountry
AnotherplayerintheregionistheRepublicofKoreawhichhasmadetheexpansionofdistributedpower
production a policy goal for its energy planning This is to overcome issues related to its mountainous
terrainwhichmakesthedevelopmentoflargeutility-scalePVplantsdifficultThenationalenergyplanaims
toincreasedistributedpowergenerationtoreachoftotalgenerationbycomparedtothecurrent
(SolarPowerEuropea)
InLatinAmericaMexicohaswitnessedstronggrowthininstalledsolarcapacityalsothankstoaboomin
distributedsolar–itcurrentlyhasmorethansolarroofsonhomesandonindustrialandcommercial
buildingsThecompetitivenessofdistributedsolarissupportedbyitslowinstallationcostsandsavingsof
uptopermonthontheelectricityratespaidbyusers(SolarPowerEuropea)DistributedsolarPV
hasgrownsignificantlyinBrazilaswellwherenewlyaddedcapacityamountedtoMWinmainly
duetotheincreasingcompetitivenessofthenet-meteringregulationthroughoutthecountryAccordingto
theBrazilianSolarEnergyAssociation(ABSOLAR)thisgrowthisexpectedtomorethandoublein
(SolarPowerEuropea)
Globallyinvestmentinsmall-scaledistributedsolarPVsystems(smallerthanmegawatt[MW])amounted
toUSDbillioninadecreaseoffromlevelsWhilstGermanyAustraliaIndiaJapan
andtheNetherlandsremainedsignificantmarketsatoverUSDbillioneachtheUnitedStateswhich
isthebiggestmarketforsmall-scalesolarwitnessedadecreaseofyearonyeartoUSDbillion
(REN)
ThereareseveralexamplesofDERincreasinglybeingdeployedgloballyForinstancethesonnenCommunity
isanaggregatorinGermanyconsistingofaboutcustomerswithsolarPVgenerationbatterystorage
or bothTheaggregator was launched in mostly forpeer-to-peer trading asa virtual power plant
(VPP)butasoftheVPPbecameavailabletothepowergridtoprovidegridservicessuchasfrequency
regulation Compared to alternatives such as pumped hydro storage this distributed “virtual” storage
resourcecanreactveryquickly(insub-seconds)makingitagreatproviderofprimaryfrequencyservices
togridoperatorsAsmallpartofthisstorageismadeavailabletotheGermanpowergridThisreducesboth
variabilityinrenewablegenerationandexpensivegridexpansionrequirements(IRENAd)
- 23 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS
The global solar market in  was dominated by
Asiaaccountingforoverhalfoftheworld’saddition
ofsolarcapacityTheregion’sinstalledsolarcapacity
reached GW by the end of  dominated by
ChinawithGWTheEuropeanUnionrepresented
the world’s second-largest solar PV market mainly
driven by Germany with GW cumulative installed
capacity by the end of  followed by North
America with GW (Figure) of whichthe United
Statesaccountedfor(IRENAa)
Under the REmap scenario Asia would continue
to lead global solar PV installations with  of
the total capacity installed by  (Figure )
Within Asia significant deployment would be seen
in China where installed capacity is projected to
reach around GW by  North America
would have the second-highest installed solar PV
capacity reaching GW by  with more
than of these installationsin theUnitedStates
Europe wouldrepresentthethird-highestregionby
withGWofsolarPVcapacityinstalledA
similarpictureisexpectedonahorizonwhen
Asiawouldstilldominatethesceneatalmosthalfof
thecumulativeglobalcapacityinstalled(GW)
WithinAsiaChinawoulddominatethescenewitha
CAGRofafterleadingtoprojectedcapacity
ofaroundGWbyNorth Americawould
still have the second-largest installed capacity
reachingGW by with the UnitedStates
still dominating the region Europe could still hold
thethirdplaceamongregionsinwithGW
of total solar PV capacity installed More than 
of these installations would be in Germany where
the installed capacity is projected to reach around
GWbyEventhoughinstalledcapacitymay
remain highest in Asia North America and Europe
marketgrowthseemslikelytoshifttootherregions
withlargemarketsalsoexpectedtoemergeinSouth
AmericaandAfrica
Figure Amongtheworld’sregionsAsiaispoisedtodominateglobalsolarPVinstallationsintheREmap
scenariofollowedbyNorthAmericaandEurope
NORTH AMERICA
EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST
AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
AND CARIBBEAN
ASIA
OCEANIA
1 728
437
55
205020302018
891
291
121
205020302018
4 837
1 860
280
205020302018
281
97
7
205020302018
673
131
8
205020302018
109
25
10
205020302018
Solar PV installed capacities (GW)
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning
the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries
Sources: Historical values based on IRENA’s renewable energy statistics (IRENA,2019c) and future projections based on IRENA’s analysis (2019a).
- 24 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS
Figure AnnualGlobalsolarPVadditionsareexpectedtoreachtoGWinandGWin
undertheREmapscenariocomparedwithGWin








2018 Record year of
maximum historical annual
additions(GW)
         

Historical Projections
Annual deployments (GW/yr)
2030 Replacement of
existing capacity begins
2050 Total additions
(incl. replacements) of 372 GW
Source: Historical values based on IRENA (2019b) and future projections based on IRENA (2019a).
Annual solar PV capacity gradually increased until
 with a drop observed in  (Figure )
Then annual capacity growth rose and fell until the
end of   marked a record year when
GW of solar PVwere added to the global power
capacity mix driven by tremendouscost reductions
due to technological enhancementsand policy and
supportivemeasures
With continuous technological advancement and
costreductionsIRENAforeseesthesolarPVmarket
growing rapidly over the nextthreedecadesAlong
withcapacity additionsreplacementofsolarpanels
attheendoftheirlifetimeisalsoessentialandplays
a key role especially with the benefit of old panels
givingwaytoadvancedtechnologiesAnnualcapacity
additionswouldmorethandoubleby(GW)
comparedtocurrentlevelsandbyarefourfold
higherthanadditionsin(GWvsGWper
year)(Figure)
Currently annual additions are largely driven by
utility-scale projects reflecting the policies and
financial support in various countries Whilst
distributedsolarispickinguppaceinafewcountries
suchasGermanyataglobalscaledistributedlevels
arestillmuchlowerMitigatingexistingbarriersand
promotingDERare important to scale upsolar PV
deploymentincomingdecadesOnapositivenote
the REmap analysis shows that after  with
right market conditions for DER distributed PV’s
shareofannualadditionscouldstartrisingandeven
dominatetotalPVadditionsin somecountries(see
Boxabove)
SIGNIFICANTGROWTHINANNUALSOLARPVADDITIONSTO
AnnualcapacityadditionsforsolarPVwouldmorethandoubleto
GWinandreachmorethanGWinthenextyears
comparedtoGWaddedin
- 25 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS
BoxSOLARPVFOROFF-GRIDSOLUTIONS
Off-grid(orstand-alone)applicationsaretypicallyusedwherethereisnoelectricgridorwhenthecostof
connectingtothegridishighApplicationsarenormallysmallerthanothersystemtypesandareoftenused
forsmall-scaleprojectsinruralareasasasolutionindevelopingcountriesaswellasforresidentialhouseholds
willingtodisconnectfromthegrid(typicallynotthemosteconomicorefficientoption)(IRENAa)
Akeyfeatureofoff-grid renewableenergysolutionsis that theyofferrapidlydeployablereliableand
inmanycasesthemosteconomicallysustainableoptiontoaddresstheneedforenergyaccess(IRENA
b)Theycanefficientlyincreasetheresilienceofenergysystemsimproveenergysecurityempower
communities reduce local and regional CO emissions and dependingon which systems areadopted
fosterenergypricedecreases(IRENAe)
ThankstoitsmodularanddistributednaturesolarPVcanbeadaptedtoawiderangeofoff-gridapplications
andtolocalconditionsrangingfromlanternstohouseholdsystemstovillage-poweringmini-gridsInthelast
decade(–)theglobalinstalledcapacityofoff-gridsolarPVhasgrownmorethantentimesfromroughly
GWintoGWin(Figure)Currentlyoff-gridsolarsolutionsconstituteaboutofall
off-gridenergyinstallationscomprisingofsolarhomesystems(about)andsolarlanternssolarlighting
systems(about)Thisisfollowedbyrechargeablebatteries()andmini-grids()(IEAetal)
FigureGlobalpowercapacityoff-gridsolarPV–
Source: IRENA (2019a).
TheconvergenceofseveralfactorshasenabledsuchrapidgrowthFirstlytherapiddecreaseofPVmodule
costshasmeantthatoff-gridsolarPVsolutionsarenowacost-competitivechoiceforexpandingenergy
access Since  such costs have fallen by more than  while globally the cost of solar PV power
declinedbyfromto(IRENAb)Secondlythedecreaseintechnologycostshasunlocked
innovationinthedeliverymodelsandfinancingmodelstomaketechnologiesandenergyservicesaccessible
and affordableover thelong termThisis the case in East Africa(especiallyKenya) which hasdevised
different delivery models to reach unelectrified communities Smaller systems such as solar lights are
predominantlybasedondirectcashsaleswhilelargersystemshavebeendeployedthroughlease-to-ownor
fee-for-serviceapproaches(IRENAb)Thirdlybecauseofaccelerateddeploymentinvestmentinthe
off-gridrenewablessectorhasalsogrownstronglySinceannualinvestmentinthestand-alonesector
increasedtoreachUSDmillionbyandinvestmentinthemini-gridsectorgrewfromUSDmillion
intoUSDmillionin(IRENAb)
IntheREmapanalysiselectricityaccessisforeseenbyinlinewiththeSustainableDevelopment
GoalsandsolarPVwouldbethemajorcontributortothisachievement
3
2
1
0
GW
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0.25
0.31
0.39
0.51
0.67
1.19
1.52
1.98
2.56
2.94
0.90
Tenfold growth
Global annual capacity (GW)
- 26 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS
STRONGBUSINESSCASEFORA
SIGNIFICANTFUTURESOLARPVMARKET
Thebreakthroughinrenewablescapacityadditions
overpastfewyearshaslargelybeenachieveddue
to significant cost reductions driven by enabling
government policies including deployment
policiesresearchanddevelopment(R&D)funding
and other policies that have supported the
developmentoftheindustryinleadingcountries
KeyrenewabletechnologiessuchassolarPVwind
CSPandbioenergyarealreadycostcompetitiveand
costsareexpectedtoreducefurtheroutpacingfossil
fuelsby(IRENAf)
SolarPVisemergingasoneofthemostcompetitive
sourcesofnewpowergenerationcapacityafter a
decade of dramatic cost declines A decline of 
in total installed costs was observed between 
and(Figure)LowersolarPVmoduleprices
and ongoing reductions in balance-of-system costs
remainthemaindriversofreductionsinthecostof
electricityfromsolarPV(IRENAf)
Figure TherehasbeenarapiddeclineintotalinstalledcostsofsolarPVwithcostsexpectedtofurther
declineby
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
2 000
1 000
1 500
500
0
Solar PV (utility)
Historical
95th percentile
Projections
High:
481
High:
834
Low:
165
Low:
340
4 621
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
5th percentile
-74%
1 210
Note: Future projected value denotes the range in which the global weighted average installed cost of utility scale solar PV projects can fall by
2050. The costs in the figure above represents the total project costs including cost of non-module hardware (i.e. cabling, racking and
mounting, safety and security, grid connection, monitoring and control), of installation (i.e. mechanical and electrical installation, inspection),
soft costs (i.e. incentive application, system design, permitting, customer acquisition, financing costs and margin)
Sources: Historical data based on (IRENA,2019c) and future projections based on IRENA’s forthcoming report: Solar and wind cost reduction potential
to 2030 in the G20 countries (IRENA, forthcoming a)
SOLARPVINSTALLATIONCOSTSWOULDDECLINEDRAMATICALLY
FROMNOWTO
GloballythetotalinstallationcostofsolarPVprojectswouldcontinue
todeclinedramaticallyinthenextthreedecadesaveragingintherange
ofUSDtoUSDkWbyandUSDtokWby
comparedtotheaverageofUSDkWin
- 27 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS
Atacountryleveltheaveragetotalinstalledcostof
utility-scalesolarPVprojectshasdeclinedbybetween
 and  in major markets during the period
–(Figure)GermanyandFrancewitnessed
a reduction of  while others have experienced
reductionsclosertosuchasChinaandItaly(
andrespectively)Indiawasestimatedtohavethe
greatestreductionestimatedat(IRENAe)
FigureTotalinstalledcostofutility-scalesolarPVselectedcountries–
0

-77%
-80%
-69%
-84%
-83%
-74%
-77%
-66%





2018 USD/kW
China France Germany India Italy Japan United
Kingdom
United
States
















Source: IRENA (2019f).
Alongside the decreasein installed costs theglobal
weighted average capacity factor of utility-scale
PV systems has been increasing Between  and
 capacity factors increased from an average of
 to  There are three major drivers for these
increases)thetrendtowardsgreaterdeploymentin
regionswithhigherirradiationlevels)theincreased
useoftrackingsystemsand)improvementsinthe
performanceofsystemsaslosseshavebeenreduced
forinstancethoughimprovementsininverterefficiency
(IRENAf)
Rapiddeclinesininstalledcostsandincreasedcapacity
factorshaveimprovedtheeconomiccompetitiveness
of solar PV around the world (IRENA f) The
globalweightedaverageLCOEofutility-scalePVplants
isestimatedtohavefallenbybetweenand
fromaroundUSDkWhtoUSDkWh
whileauctionandtenderresultssuggesttheywillfall
tobetweenUSDkWhandkWhinBy
solarPVisexpectedtobeamongthecheapest
sourcesofpoweravailableparticularlyinareaswith
excellent solar irradiation with  costs in the
rangeUSD–kWh(Figure)
- 28 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS
Figure Thelevelizedcostofelectricity(LCOE)forsolarPVisalreadycompetitivenowcomparedtoall
fossilfuelgenerationsourcesandwouldbefullycompetitiveinafewyears
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Solar PV (utility)
95th percentile
LCOE range of
fossil fuel technologies
(Low: 0.05–High: 0.17)
High: 0.08
High: 0.05
Low: 0.02
Low: 0.014
2010 2018 2030 2050
5th percentile
Global levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) (USD2018/kWh)
0.08 5
0.37
2010–2018: -77%
Note: Historical data represent cost of new installations in a specific year and future projected value denotes the range in which the global weighted
average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV projects fall by 2050; the capacity factor is assigned to projects that come into operation in a specific
year and remains same through the life cycle of a project; LCOE for fossil fuel technologies refers to new capacity/new deployment.
Sources: Historical data based on (IRENA,2019c) and future projections based on IRENA’s forthcoming report: Solar and wind cost reduction potential
to 2030 in the G20 countries (IRENA, forthcoming a)
SOLARPVWOULDBEONEOFTHECHEAPESTGENERATINGSOURCES
ThelevelizedcostofelectricityforsolarPVisalreadycompetitive
nowcomparedtoallgenerationsources(includingfossilfuels)andis
expectedtodeclinefurtherinthecomingdecadesfallingwithinthe
rangeofUSDandkWhbyandUSDkWh
- 29 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS
BoxCURRENTAUCTIONANDPPADATAFORSOLARPVANDTHE
IMPACTONDRIVINGDOWNLCOES
IRENA’Sdatabaseofpowerpurchaseagreement(PPA)andauctionresultssuggeststhatthecostofsolar
PVgenerationwillcontinuetofallouttoAlthoughcaremustbetakenincomparingPPAandauction
resultswithLCOEcalculationsforutility-scalesolarPVtheauctiondatasuggestthattheaverageprice
ofelectricitycouldfalltoUSDkWhinareductionofcomparedtotheglobalweighted
averageLCOEofprojectscommissionedinThiswouldmeanacostdeclinerateofperyear(an
accelerationoverrecentcostreductiontrends)
FigureTheLCOEforprojectsandglobalweightedaveragevaluesforsolarPV–
Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database 2019
VariousaspectsplayaroleindrivingdowngenerationcostsforthetechnologyMarketswithhigher-than-
benchmarktotalinstalledcostsarelikelytoexperiencecostreductionsastheybenefitfromcompetitive
procurement As new markets emerge and mature in regions with plentiful solar resources higher
capacity factorscanbe expected forprojectscommissionedtherecompared to less sunny regions in
classichistoricalmarketsFinallyasthebankabilityofsolarPVprojectshasincreasedwithtimesohas
theaccesstolower-costfinancing
Note: For a detailed discussion of the challenges of comparing PPA and auction data to LCOE calculations, and how IRENA corrects or excludes
data for the comparison in Figure 13, see IRENA (2019f).
Solar photovoltaic
201 0 201 2 201 4 201 6 201 8 2020
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.371
0.048
Fossil fuel cost range
Auction database
LCOE database
- 30 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS
INVESTMENTNEEDS
The total volume of investment in solar PV is being
heavily influenced by the technology’s falling
costsItrosesteadilyfromUSD
billion in 
to reach record high levels of USD
billion in
 as deployment accelerated faster than falling
costs Since then the balance between these two
factors has oscillated in  total investment fell to
USD
billionbeforerisingintoUSDbillion
onthebackofasignificantincreaseincapacityadditions
before falling again to USD
billion in  as new
additions remained more or less thesame asin 
whilecostscontinuedtofall(BNEF)Chinasawa
gradualincreaseinsolarPV investmentbetween
andreachingrecordhighlevelsofUSDbillionin
beforedroppingtoUSD
billioninInNorth
Americainvestmentincreasedsteadilybetweenand
wh e n th eyre a c h edUSD
billionbeforedropping
againbetweenandwhentheyamountedto
USD
billion (BNEF ) In  investments
made in deploying solar PVcapacities accountedto
nearlyUSD
billion
Deploying a total installed capacity of more than
GW of solar PV by  would necessitate
cumulativeinvestmentofnearlyUSD
trillionfrom
nowuntilThiswouldtranslateintoannualaverage
investmentofUSD
billionperyearovertheperiod
toThatrepresentsscalingupannualinvestment
byaroundfromnowuntilcomparedtosolar
PVinvestmentin(Figure)
Figure ScalingupsolarPVenergyinvestmentiskeytoacceleratethepaceofglobalsolarPVinstallations
overthecomingdecades
Global average solar PV annual investment (USD
2018
billion/yr)
0 50 100 150 200
2019-50
192
2018
114
Solar PV (utility and distributed)
Projections
Historical
Source: based on IRENA’s analysis
SCALINGUPSOLARPVINVESTMENTISKEYTOFACILITATE
THEUPTAKEOFTHESOLARPVMARKET
GlobalaverageannualsolarPVinvestmentneedstoscaleupby
until(USDbillionyear)comparedtoinvestment
(USDbillionyear)
- 31 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS
At the regional level the major share of global
investmentwouldshifttoAsiawithUSD

billion
peryearfromnowuntilandChinaandIndia
at the forefront accounting for approximately 
and  of total annual investment respectively
AsiaisfollowedbyNorthAmericaatUSD

billion
peryearandthenEuropeatUSD

billionperyear
(Figure)
Figure RegionalannualinvestmentinsolarPVcapacity(newandreplacement)–(USDbillionyr)
NORTH AMERICA
EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST
AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
AND CARIBBEAN
ASIA
OCEANIA
37
2019–2050
2019-2050
2019–2050
2019-2050
2019–2050
2019-2050
19
113
7
2
14
GLOBAL
192
2019–2050
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA
concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers
or boundaries.
Source: IRENA’s analysis.
- 32 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOLAR PV MARKETS
BoxTHEFUTUREPOTENTIALOFSOLAR
COMPARISONWITHOTHERENERGYSCENARIOS
Analysisofenergyscenariosshowsanincreasingconsensusontheimportantrolethatsolarpowerwill
playintheenergymixinthecomingdecades
Acomparisonanalysisalsoshowsacorrelationbetweentotalpowergenerationandtheshareofsolar
powergenerationinthetotalgenerationmix–thescenarioswithhighsolarpowergenerationsharesare
alsotheoneswithhightotalpowergenerationInIRENA’sREmapCasesolarisforeseentorepresentonly
oftotalgenerationbecauseastrongeremphasisisgiventootherrenewablesourcesnotablywind
whichrepresentsoftotalgenerationbyAhighsolarsharecanbefoundintheTeskescenarioat
followedbyDNV-GLatandtheShell-Skyscenarioat(Figure)
FigureSolargenerationprojectionsinandglobalenergyscenarios
ThecomparisonalsosuggeststhatthegoalofthelimitingtemperatureincreasetowellbelowCwould
bemostachievablewithloweroverallenergydemandwhileachievingtheCtargetwouldalsorequire
significantstructuralandlifestylechanges
Despitethesimilaritiesdifferencescanalsobefoundbetweenthescenariosinaspectssuchasthelevelof
electrificationinend-usesectorsandreductionsinCOemissionsThedivergenceinresultscanmainlybe
explainedbythedifferentobjectivesbehindthescenariosFormanytheanalysisisdefinedbytheneed
toreduceenergy-relatedCOemissionstolimittemperatureincreasetobetweenCandCOthers
havemodelledtheenergysysteminamoreconservative(business-as-usual)way
0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000
80 000
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Solar share in generation
Total generation
SHELL-SKY (2050)
DNV-GL (2050)
TESKE (2050)
GREENPEACE
IRENA-REMAP (2050)
EQUINOR
IEA- WEO SDS (2040)
BNEF (2050)
Solar generation projections in 2040 and 2050 global energy scenarios
IRENA REMAP (2040)
- 33 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS AND INNOVATIONS TO INTEGRATE RISING SHARES OF SOLAR PV POWER GENERATION
3. TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS AND
INNOVATIONS TO INTEGRATE RISING
SHARES OF SOLAR PV POWER GENERATION
Thevariablenatureofthesolarandwindresources
will require significant changes to the way the
power system operates as the share of variable
renewable energy (VRE) reaches high levels in
different markets This will in particular require
adequate measures to maintain grid stability and
reliability Changes will be needed to the operation
andmanagementofthegridonaminute-by-minute
basis while also taking into consideration seasonal
variationsinsolarandwindoutput
Inanageoflow-costrenewablepowergeneration
the success of the energy transition will be
underpinnedbystrategiestointegratehighshares
of VRE into power systems at the lowest possible
cost At present the share of VRE in the generation
mixoftheGcountriesisaboutSomecountries
particularly in Europe have achieved much higher
sharesintheVREshareinDenmarkreached
inSouthAustraliaandinLithuaniaIrelandSpain
and Germany over  (IRENA b)The three
largestpowersystemsintheworld–ChinaIndiaand
theUnitedStates–areexpectedtodoubletheirVRE
sharestomorethanofannualgenerationby
(IRENA IEA andREN)Indiamet  ofits
loadwithVREgenerationbetweenandand
wasontracktoreachbyIntheUnitedStates
ofitselectricitycamefromwindandsolarin
(IRENAIEAREN)
Under the REmap Case the global share of wind
andsolargenerationincreasestobyand
tobyThisgrowthinVREpowerrequires
new power market rules and procedures markets
for short-term balancing and flexibility needs
and adequate firm capacity to manage periods of
low solar and wind output It will also require new
businessmodelsandtechnicalsolutionsforboththe
supplyanddemandsidessuchasthroughtheuseof
aggregatorsandthedeploymentofnewtechnologies
including behind-the-meter batteries and demand
response (IRENA d) Deployment of adequate
system flexibility measures (Box ) together with
the extension and reinforcement of power gridswill
be essential to managing the higher shares of VRE
generationprojectedintheREmapCaseby
BasedonIRENA’sREmapCasethesolarPVshareof
globalpowergeneration wouldreach by
andbyAtthecountrylevelinJapan
andSouthAfricawouldbothhavethehighestshare
ofsolarpowerintheirelectricitymixatfollowed
bytheUnitedStatesatandIndiaandChinaboth
atInthehorizonthepicturewouldchange
significantly Australia would have the highest solar
power share at nearly  followed by the United
StatesatasolarshareSouthAfricaat and
Japanat(Figure)
- 34 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS AND INNOVATIONS TO INTEGRATE RISING SHARES OF SOLAR PV POWER GENERATION
Figure Ahigherpenetrationofsolarpowerinelectricitygridsisforeseeninvariouscountriesbyand

Global Australia India Japan South Africa USA China European
Union
(Eu-28)
45%
30%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
25%
35%
40%
2030
2050
15%
28%
30%
26%
26%
32%
33%
18%
15%
23%
9%
21%
Solar PV share in total generation
13%
25%
40%
14%
Source: IRENA (2019a)
IRENA estimates that investment in grids
generationadequacyandsomeflexibilitymeasures
(such as storage) across the entire electricity
system would total USD
trillion for the period
– (USDtrillion higher than in the Reference
Case)tointegratevariablerenewables(solar
generation)by(Figure)Nearlytwo-thirdsof
the incremental investment in the REmap Case over
the Reference Case is needed to extend or enhance
transmissionanddistributiongridswhiletheremaining
investmentisneededforpowersystemadequacyand
flexibility measures (including storage) along with
subsequent investment in smart meter deployment
(IRENA a IRENAb) In annual terms
more than one-quarter increase in average annual
investmentswouldbeneededtoUSD
billionyear
overtheperiodto(IRENAb)comparedto
investmentsmadeinelectricitynetworksandbattery
storagein(USD
billionyear)(IEAb)
Giventhecomplexityofdevelopingaglobalmodel
that addresses medium- and long-term planning
for VRE and overall power system development a
high-level approach has been applied to identify
potentialpowersystemsissuesintheREmapCase
in  Additional investment required to address
these issues has been estimated at the global level
basedonabottom-upanalysisoftheGcountries
Reinforcement replacement and expansion of grids
areconsideredtosupplyprojectedelectricitydemand
towards(IRENAa)
Storagecontributestoadequacyandflexibilityand
isassumedtobewidelydeployedThisincludessome
additionalpumpedhydropowercapacityandbattery
storage as part of decentralised power generation
dedicated utility-scale batteries and also the use of
someelectricvehicle(EV)batterycapacitytosupport
the grid through vehicle-to-grid (VG) services
By  around 
TWh of EV batteries could be
available to provide grid services compared to just
TWh of stationary batteries (IRENA g)
Hydrogeniscertainlyoneoftheemergingtechnologies
that could potentially contribute to the flexibility of
power system acting as “seasonal storage” thereby
aidinginintegratinghighsharesofvariablerenewables
IRENA sees a global economic potential for 
EJ
of hydrogen from renewable electricity in total final
energy consumption by  This would translate
intooftotal finalenergyconsumptionandof
allelectricitygenerationbeingdedicatedtohydrogen
productionin(IRENAh)
- 35 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS AND INNOVATIONS TO INTEGRATE RISING SHARES OF SOLAR PV POWER GENERATION
BoxPOWERSYSTEMFLEXIBILITYTOINTEGRATE
ARISINGSHAREOFVRE
To effectively manage large-scale VRE deployment flexibility must be harnessed in all sectors of the
energysystemfrompowergenerationtotransmissionanddistributionsystemsstorage(bothelectrical
andthermal)andincreasinglyflexibledemand(demand-sidemanagementandsectorcoupling)
FigurePowersystemflexibilityenablersintheenergysector
In conventional power systems flexibility has mainly been provided by generation with dispatchable
generatorsadjustingtheiroutputtofollowdemandandifavailablepumpedhydrodealingwithinflexible
baseloadandreducingtheneedforpowerplantstocoverpeakdemandImportantprogresshasbeen
madeinrecentyearstowardsincreasingtheflexibilityofconventionalpowerplantsasthedemandside
waslargelyunresponsiveandprovided verylittleflexibilityEmerginginnovations arenot onlyfurther
increasing flexibility on the supply side but are now also widening the availability of flexibility to all
segmentsofthepowersystemincludinggridsandthedemandside(IRENAd)
ElectricVehicles(EVs)leadswaytounleashsynergiesbetweenlowcarbontransportmodeandrenewable
electricity generation contributing to “Sector Coupling” EV fleet could be used as electricity storage
option contributingto improved flexibility of power systems with raisingsharesof variable renewable
sourcesIfunleashedstartingtodaytheuseofEVsasaflexibilityresourceespeciallyviasmartcharging
approacheswouldreducetheneedforadditionalinvestmentinflexiblebutcarbon-intensivefossil-fuel
powerplantstobalancesystemwithrenewables(IRENAg)
Hydrogen contributes to “sector coupling” between the electricity system and industry buildings and
transportincreasingthelevelofflexibilitywhilefacilitatingtheintegrationofVREintothepowersystem
Thegasgridcanalsobedecarbonisedviarenewablehydrogenbytakingadvantageoflowelectricityprices
providingseasonalstorageforsolarandwindandprovidinggridservicesfromelectrolysers(IRENAh)
H2
Transmission
Distribution
Power
System
Flexibility
Sector
coupling
Storage
Gas
(e.g.,Hydrogen)
Heat
Electric
Vehicles
Generation
Demand-Side
Management
- 36 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS AND INNOVATIONS TO INTEGRATE RISING SHARES OF SOLAR PV POWER GENERATION
Figure Additionalinvestmentsarerequiredingridsgenerationadequacyandsomeflexibilitymeasures
(suchasstorage)acrosstheentireelectricitysystemtointegrateraisingsharesofvariable
renewablesources
USD trillion/yr
Transmission
grid
Distribution
grid
Energy
storage
Smart
meters
Dispatchable
capacity
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0.50.5
1.71.7
1.01.0
0.10.112.712.7
- 0.01
9.4
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION
CURRENT PLANS
Note: Investment needs for other flexibility resources, including power-to-heat, power-to-hydrogen, demand-side management and thermal
storage, are not considered in this estimation.
Source: (IRENA, 2019m)
The optimal strategy for integrating even higher
shares of VRE is country- and context-specific
Solutions emerging from the synergies among
innovationsacrossalldimensionsofthesystemwould
make it possible to create reliable and affordable
power systems that are based predominantly on
renewableenergy(Box)Theseinnovationsoffera
broaderportfolioof solutionsthat canbe combined
andoptimisedtoreducecostsandmaximisesystem
benefits(IRENAd)
- 37 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS AND INNOVATIONS TO INTEGRATE RISING SHARES OF SOLAR PV POWER GENERATION
BoxINNOVATIONLANDSCAPETOINTEGRATEHIGHSHARESOFVRE
IRENA’swork confirmsthat thereisno singlegame-changing innovationforintegrating largeamounts of
VRE into the power system Innovations in all thesegmentsof the power sector areneededIRENA has
investigatedtheinnovationlandscapeidentifyingandclusteringtransformativeinnovationsacrossfour
dimensionsenablingtechnologiesbusinessmodelsmarketdesignandsystemoperation(seeFigure)
Enabling technologies batterystorage demand-sidemanagementand digitaltechnologies are changing
thepowersectoropeningdoorstonewapplicationsthatunlocksystemflexibilityElectrificationofend-use
sectors is emerging as a new market for renewables which could also provide additional ways of flexing
demandifappliedinasmartway
Businessmodelsinnovativebusinessmodelsarekeytomonetisingthenewvaluecreatedbythesetechnologies
andthereforeenabletheiruptakeAttheconsumerendnumerousinnovativebusinessmodelsareemerging
alongsideinnovativeschemesthatenablerenewableelectricitysupplyinplaceswithlimitedoptionssuchas
off-gridordenselypopulatedareas
Marketdesignadaptingmarketdesigntothechangingparadigm–towardslow-carbonpowersystemswith
highsharesofVRE–iscrucialforenablingvaluecreationandadequaterevenuestreams
System operation with new technologies and sound market design in place innovations in system
operationarealsoneededandareemerginginresponsetotheintegrationofhighersharesofVREinthe
gridTheseincludeinnovationsthataccommodateuncertaintyandtheinnovativeoperationofthesystem
tointegrateDER
FigureThefourdimensionsofinnovation
Source: (IRENA, 2019d)
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES SYSTEM OPERATION
MARKET DESIGN
INNOVATION
DIMENSIONS
1 Utility scale batteries
2 Behind-the-meter
batteries
3 Electric-vehicle
smart charging
4 Renewable
power-to-heat
5 Renewable
power-to-hydrogen
6 Internet of Things
7 Artificial intelligence
and big data
8 Blockchain
9 Renewable mini-grids
10 Supergrids
11 Flexibility in conventional
power plants
12 Aggregators
13 Peer-to-peer electricity
trading
14 Energy-as-a-service
15 Community-ownership
models
16 Pay-as-you-go models
17 Increasing time
granularity in electricity
markets
18 Increasing space
granularity in electricity
markets
19 Innovative ancillary
services
20 Re-designing capacity
markets
21 Regional markets
22
23 Market integration
of distributed energy
resources
24 Net billing schemes
25 Future role of distribution
system operators
26 Co-operation between
transmission and
distribution system
operators
27 Advanced forecasting
of variable renewable
power generation
28 Innovative operation
of pumped hydropower
storage
29 Virtual power lines
30 Dynamic line rating
- 38 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
4. SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
 TECHNOLOGYEXPANSION
SolarPV powerisoneofthefastest-growingenergy
resources in theworld and isnow the second most-
deployed renewable energy technology in the
world by installed capacity after wind Despite the
unprecedented demand growth in recent years
solar PV modules and inverters have fallen in price
benefiting project developers and disadvantaging
manufacturerswhohavestruggledtosustainmargins
The main components of a solar plant that decision
makers may consider manufacturing domestically
arethesolarcellssolarmodules inverters trackers
mountingstructuresandgeneralelectricalcomponents
(IRENAb)Toavoidskillsgapshowevereducation
andtrainingmustbeattunedtotheemergingneedsof
theindustryThisiscrucialastrainingandskillbuilding
formanimportantpartofeffortstogeneratecapable
local supply chains Variables such as government
policiesincentivisinglocalvaluecreationtheavailability
ofrawmaterialsandthepresenceofrelatedindustries
are important drivers for the local manufacturing
of PV components However the development of a
domesticmanufacturingindustryforsolarPVmodules
maynotbeoptimalininstancesofstrongcompetition
especiallywhenneighbouringcountriesmaybe large
producerswithlowpricesandovercapacity
The expansion of solar PV markets combined with
fallingpriceshascontributedtotheemergenceofnew
playersintheindustrysuchasAppleandTesla(mainly
in the manufacturing of modules) while some of the
topwindturbinecompaniessuchasGamesaGoldwind
andMingyanghavealsoenteredthesolarindustry
SOLARMODULES
The global market for solar module production is
highly diversified although some consolidation
among manufacturers is taking place The majority
of the market is held by crystalline silicon (c-Si)
module manufacturers thanks to the maturity of
the technology and the lower investment costs
due to the fall in the price of polysilicon – its raw
material (GlobalData ) The thin-film market
by comparison has fewer manufacturers and
relativelyfewplayershavebeenabletoconsistently
commercialisetheseproducts
In the Asia-Pacific regiondominatedthe marketfor
solar modules accounting for the majority of the solar
PV modules installed globally () This is followed by
the Americas and Europe with a share of  and 
respectively In specifically Europethe MiddleEast
and Africa all together had a higher rate of installation
comparedtotheAsia-Pacificregionduetosignificantsolar
moduleinstallationinGermanyItalyandSpainHowever
following subsidy cuts the annual installation rate fell
sharplyinEuropeandpavedthe wayfor the Asia-Pacific
regiontobecomethegloballeaderinsolarPVinstallations
SOLARINVERTERS
The market for solar inverters is currently in a
growthphasetherisingdemandforpowertogether
and various global initiatives to encourage the
implementation of renewable smart grids being the
maindriversbehindthisdevelopment
IntheAsia-Pacificregiondominatedthemarketfor
solarinvertersaccountingforofnewinstallations
globally It is expected to continue dominating the
marketinthenextdecadethankstotherisingnumber
ofinstallationsinChinaIndiaandJapanTheAmericas
were the next largest regions in the global solar PV
invertermarketwithamarketshareofapproximately
and reportedsolarinstallations ofapproximately
gigawatts(GW)ThesolarPVmarketsintheUnited
StatesandinCanadacontinuedtogrowandinSouth
and CentralAmericathe focuswas ChileTheEMEA
solarinvertermarketwasthethird-largestgloballyby
value in  accounting for  Germany France
andItalywerethetopmarketsinEuropeandtheGulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) countries such as Kuwait
QatarSaudiArabiaandtheUnitedArabEmirateswere
themajormarketsintheMiddleEast
At a country level China the United States and India
were the top countries collectively accounting for
approximatelyof global PV inverter installations in
 With GW of annual installations and 
of the global market China was the most prominent
countryin theglobalsolarPVinvertermarketin
After China the UnitedStates registered annual
installationofGWrepresentingofglobalsolar
PVinvertersinstalled in  Thethird-largestmarket
was India recording annual installation of GW in
andaccountingfornearlyoftheglobalmarket
InallthreecountriessolarPVandinverterinstallations
have been driven by government support policies
and schemes such as net metering and feed-in-tariffs
(GlobalData)
- 39 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
5. FUTURE SOLAR PV TRENDS
Thissectionisdesignedtohighlightthetechnologies
that are driving the solar PV industry its further
developmentandits potentialtosignificantlyimpact
the energy system It alsoexplores itschallengesas
themarketgrowthsanddiversifies
The solar PV industry is changing rapidly with
innovationsoccurringalongtheentirevaluechainIn
recent years a major driver for innovation has been
the push for higher efficiency (Green ) This is
reflectedbytheexpansionofpassivatedemitterand
rear cellcontact (PERC) technology which offers
more efficient solar cells and as such increases the
performanceofsolarpanelsIncreasingcellefficiency
is key for competitive module manufacturing as it
directly decreases cell processing costs by reducing
quantitiesrequiredforagivenoutput
Efficiency is also very important at the system level
with several factors explaining the push for higher-
efficiencytechnologiesFromthetechnicalperspective
higher levels of efficiency reduce the number of
modulesthatneedtobetransportedtotheinstallation
site thenecessary landareaandthe length of wires
and cables required From a marketing perspective
companiesabletoofferthehighest-efficiencymodules
arealsogenerallyperceivedashavingthehighestlevel
oftechnicalexpertise(Green)
Thenextsectionexplorestheinnovationprogressinthe
solarPVindustryinmaterialsmodulemanufacturing
applicationsoperationandmaintenanceandinways
ofdecommissioningpanelsandmanagingtheirend-
of-lifestage(Figure)
FigureSolarPVvaluechain
MATERIALS AND MODULE
MANUFACTURING
APPLICATIONS OPERATION AND
MAINTENANCE
DECOMISSIONING
AND END-OF-LIFE
MANAGEMENT
 MATERIALSANDMODULEMANUFACTURING
The further growth of the solar PV industry largely
depends on reducing the balance of system (BoS)
which makes up most of the total installed system
costsandhasthegreatestpotentialforcostreduction
Ways of achieving this include using cheaper cell
materials (and material use reduction) reducing cell
manufacturing costs and increasing cell efficiency
levelsThefollowingsectionshighlightmajortrendsin
technologyimprovement
MATERIALS
Progress in R&D is continuously being made in both
existing and emerging technologies with the aim
of achieving further significant cost reductions and
performanceimprovementsAvarietyoftechnologiesis
expectedtocontinuetocharacterisethePVtechnology
portfolio First-generation technologies which have
been evolving along the whole PV value chain still
account for the majority of global annual production
(Fraunhofer ISE ) Tandem and perovskite
technologies also offer interesting perspectives but
inthelongertermduetobarriersthatstillneedtobe
addressedandovercome(durabilityprice)
TheFiguregivesanoverviewofthePVtechnologies
andconceptsunderdevelopmentthatareimportantin
thecontextofthisroadmap
- 40 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
FigureSolarPVtechnologystatus
Solar PV Technology Status
R&D
Tandem/Hybrid
Perovskite
PERC
First generation
(mono and poly-crystalline)
CIGS CdTe
PILOT
LINES
MARKET
ENTRY
MARKET
MATURATIY
SILICON
(conventional
solar cell
architecture)
SILICON
(advanced
solar cell
architecture)
THIN FILMS
MARKET
PENETRATION
Notes: CIGS = copper-indium-gallium-diselenide; CdTe = cadmium telluride. PERC = passivated emitter and rear cell/contact
Silicon – conventional solar architecture
Crystalline silicon (c-Si) panels belong to the first-
generationsolarPVpanelsandtheyholdshareof
worldwidePVproduction(FraunhoferISE)The
economiesofscaleofitsmainmaterialsiliconmake
c-Si more affordable and highly efficient compared
to other materials Solar panels have improved
substantially in terms of their efficiency and power
outputoverthelastfewdecadesTheaveragemodule
efficiency in  was for multicrystalline PV
panelsandformonocrystallinePVpanelsand
since then has increased steadily reaching  and
 respectively This positive trend is expected to
continue through  (Fraunhofer ISE ) The
strongcompetitivepositionofc-Siinthemarketthanks
toitscontinually fallingcosthasmadeitdifficult for
othertechnologiestocompete
However despite the high-efficiency level of this
first-generationPVtechnologythereremainsalotof
scopeforimprovementincluding)loweringthecost
ofc-Simodulesforbetterprofitmargins)reducing
metallicimpuritiesgrainboundariesanddislocations
)mitigatingenvironmentaleffectsbyreducingwaste
and ) yielding thinner wafers through improved
materialproperties(GlobalData)
SILICON–ADVANCEDSOLARARCHITECTURE
PERC
A PERC cell uses advanced silicon cell architecture
PERC cells are not much different in construction
from a typicalmonocrystallinePVcellhoweverthe
keyimprovementistheintegrationofaback-surface
passivationlayerwhich isalayerofmaterialonthe
back of the cells that is able to improve the cell’s
efficiency (Shravan K and Chunduri K ) In
fact the passivation layer increases the overall cell
efficiency in three key ways ) it reduces electron
recombination ) it increases absorption of light
and ) it enables higher internal reflectivity (Marsh
J)The efficiency gain of implementingPERC
architecture for monocrystalline cells is about 
to  absolute while the boost for multicrystalline
cellsisalittleloweratto(ShravanKand
ChunduriK)
PERChasstartedonlyrecentlytoenterthecommercial
arena but has quickly become the new industry
standard for monocrystalline cells Several factors
have facilitated this remarkable progress including
themajorshiftofthemarkettowardsmonocrystalline
cellstheimprovementinreliabilityandthroughputof
production tools which has consequently improved
the passivation quality of the films and the real
momentum in R&D created by the large number
of manufacturers now active in PERC production
(ShravanKandChunduriK)
- 41 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
Tandem/hybrid cells
Tandem solar cellsare stacks of individual cells one
on top of the other that each selectively convert a
specific band of light into electrical energy leaving
theremaininglighttobeabsorbedandconvertedto
electricityinthecellbelowEmergingPVtechnologies
comprise several types of tandem cells that can be
grouped mainly depending on materials used (eg
organic inorganic hybrid) as well as on the kind of
connectionusedThetandemcellapproachhasbeen
used to fabricate the world’s most efficient solar
cellsthatcanconvertof sunlightintoelectricity
Unfortunately these devices use very expensive
materials and fabrication processes and still cannot
breakthroughthemarket(Cherradi)
THIN-FILM
Thin film technologies are often referred to as
second-generation solar PV The semiconducting
materialsusedtoproducethin-filmcellsareonlyafew
micrometresthick(IRENA)Thesetechnologies
generally include two mainfamilies ) silicon-based
thin film (amorphous [a-Si] and micromorph silicon
[a-Sic-Si] and ) non-silicon based (perovskites
cadmiumtelluride[CdTe]andcopper-indium-gallium-
diselenide[CIGS])Thesetechnologiescanbecheaper
to produce as such they are being deployed on a
commercialscalebuttheyhavehistoricallyhadlower
efficiencylevels
Thin-filmtechnologyforlarge-scalepowergeneration
gained prominence around  when the cost
of silicon rose due to increased demand Thin-film
modules therefore made more economic sense
despite their low efficiency However by  the
fallingsiliconpricescombinedwiththefallingpriceof
highlyefficientc-Simoduleshaveshiftedproduction
towards c-Si technology Whilst first-generation
crystallinesilicon-basedPVhasthereforeconsolidated
its commercial status following performance
improvementsandcostreductionsinrecentyearsthe
overallmarketshareofthin-filmtechnologieshasbeen
constantlydecreasingsinceCurrentlythin-film
technology accounts for only  of the global solar
PVmarketwhilesilicon-basedsolarmodulesstillhold
approximately  of the global PV module market
(GlobalData)
Non-silicon based thin-film technologies
Perovskites
Currently most solar cells are made from silicon
howeveranareatowatchisthedevelopmentofnew
materialsforsolarcellsInparticularoneofthemost
promising material is perovskites a type of mineral
verygoodatabsorbinglightThefirstperovskitePV
devices in  converted just  of the energy
contained in sunlight into electricity However
becausecrystalsareveryeasytomakeinthelabtheir
performancewasquicklyimprovedandbytheir
efficiencyhad soaredto setbyresearchersin
theUnitedStatesandtheRepublicofKorea—closeto
silicon’slabrecordof(Extance)However
perovskite efficiency records have only been set on
tinysamples(Extance)
Perovskites still face some significant challenges
before achieving market maturity One of the main
onesisdurabilityBecausethecrystalsdissolveeasily
theyarenotabletohandlehumidconditionsandneed
tobeprotectedbymoisturethroughencapsulationfor
instancethroughan aluminiumoxidelayerorsealed
glass plates Another challenge for scientists is that
whistthey havebeenabletoachievehighefficiency
levelswithsmallperovskitestheyhavenotbeenable
toreplicatesucheffectwithlargercellareas
If these barriers can be overcome perovskites cells
have the potential to change the dynamics and
economics of solarpower because they are cheaper
to produce than solar cells and can be produced at
relativelylowtemperaturesunlikesilicon
Copperindiumgalliumselenidecells(CIGS)
CIGS cells have achieved high efficiency levels
() comparable to commercial crystalline silicon
(FraunhoferISE)HowevermanufacturingCIGS
cellscanbedifficultduetotherarityofindiumaswell
astothecomplexstoichiometryandmultiplephases
toproducethemrestrictinglarge-scaleproductionin
thenearterm(Cherradi)
Cadmiumtelluride(CdTe)
Cadmium telluride cells have achieved an efficiency
ofverysimilartoCIGSandarecharacterisedby
good absorption and low energy losses (Fraunhofer
ISE ) CdTe solar cells are made through low-
temperatureprocesseswhichmakestheirproduction
very flexible and affordable CdTe currently has the
largest market share of all thin-film technologies
(Cherradi)
- 42 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
ADVANCEDMODULETECHNOLOGIES
Theemergenceofnewcellarchitectureshasenabled
higher efficiency levels A major driver of this shift
has beenthe emergence ofthe PERCcells andtheir
compatibility with other emerging innovations such
as half-cut cellsLooking ahead themostimportant
technological shift in the market relates to bifacial
cells andmodulesdriven by the increasedadoption
of advanced cell architecture anda focus onsystem
outputlevels
Bifacialsolar cells
Bifacial solar cells have been under development for
decades and their manufacturing process can be
consideredoneofthemostadvancedforsolarmodules
today (Shravan KChunduriK ) Bifacial cells
are capable of generating electricity not only from
sunlightreceivedontheirfrontbutalsofromreflected
sunlightreceivedonthereversesideofthecellAtthe
time of writingChina retains itsstatus as thelargest
manufacturerofandendmarketforbifacialmodules
Worldwidedemandhasalsoincreasedwithcountries
suchastheUnitedStatesBrazilandtheUnitedKingdom
increasingtheiruseofbifacialmodulesforutility-scale
PVplantsBasedonthecurrentmarkettrendbifacials
are extending their geographical reach from Europe
andJapantoemergingmarketsandacrosstheglobe
(RoselundC)
Bifacial operation facilitated by the uptake of PERC
(which is driving the bifacial boom) offers a near-
termeffectiveefficiencyincreaseof–relativeby
increasingtheenergyoutputfromagivenmodulearea
AccordingtotheFraunhoferISE’smoduletechnology
divisionnearlyeverycellproducerthathasupgraded
toPERCisalsoworkingonbifacialtechnologyandthe
greater that PERC expands the greater that bifacial
modules will too (Shravan K Chunduri K )
Despite the growth and advantages of bifacial cells
thetechnologystillhassomeobstaclestoovercome
such asthe lackofaninternationaltestingstandard
nocommongroundforpowerlabellingorpricingand
yieldsimulationandbankabilityissues
Onetypeofbifacialmoduleistheglass-glassmodule
These are solar panels with solar cells arranged
betweentwoglasspanesTheyaretypicallyappliedto
utility-scalesystemsandprovideaheavy-dutysolution
for harsh environments (eg high temperatures high
humidity)becausetheyarelesssensitivetopenetration
of moisture The technology has already been under
development for decades but their high costs and
heavyweighthasbeenabarriertotheirdevelopment
AccordingtotheInternationalTechnologyRoadmapfor
Photovoltaic (ITRPV)in the shareofglass-glass
moduleswasonlyandisexpectedtojustdoubleby
Howeverdespitethelimitedgrowthforeseenin
the short term the ITRPV expects the technology to
pickupwithinthenextyearsandreachashare
InaPVmodulesolarcellsareelectricallyconnected
to strings This interconnection however can cause
optical losses in the module which affects the
reliabilityoftheproductToovercomethislimitation
various industrial stringing equipment and soldering
technologiesarebeingdevelopedsuchashalf-cells
solarshinglesandmulti-busbars
Half-cells
Halfcellsinvolvedeliberatelycuttingafullyprocessed
cellintohalfwithveryadvancedlasermachinesHalf-
cells are being adopted quickly thanks to the fact
that from a manufacturing point of view only minor
changesareneeded toincludelaser machines Half-
cellsimprovemoduleperformanceanddurabilityand
canprovideaninstantpowerboostof–watts(W)
(ShravanKChunduriK)
ThankstotheintegrationofPERChalf-cuttechnology
hasseenachievedefficienciesofuptoandpower
ratingsofupto
W(RoselundC)
Multi-busbars
Siliconsolarcellsaremetallisedwiththinstripsprinted
onthe frontandrearofasolarcelltheseare called
b u s b a r s a n d h a v e t h e p u r p o s eo fc o n d u c t i n g t h e e l e c t r i c
directcurrent(DC)powergeneratedbythecellOlder
solar cells typically had two busbars however the
industry has moved towards higher efficiencies and
busbarshaveincreasedtothree(ormore)inmostsolar
cells The increased number of busbars has several
advantagesfirstisthehighpotentialforcostsaving
due to a reduction in metal consumption for front-
facing metallisation (BraunS ) second series
resistancelossesarereducedbyemployingthinwires
instead of regular ribbon (Shravan K Chunduri K
)andthirdoptimisingthewidthofthebusbars
leads to an additional rise in efficiency A higher
numberofbusbarsleadstohighermoduleefficiencies
because of reduced internal resistancelosses this is
duetothelowerdistancebetweenthebusbarsFinally
multi-busbar design is highly beneficial for bifacial
technologyespeciallyforimprovingthebifacialityfor
PERCcellsof(ShravanKChunduriK)
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FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
Solar shingles
Solarshinglesareatypeofsolarenergysolutionwhere
solar panels are designed to look like conventional
roofing materials while also producing electricity
Solar shingles have several advantages First a key
advantageisthattheyeliminatetheneedforribbon
connecting cells like roof tiles Second and related
to the removal of the ribbon module aesthetics are
improvedasthepanelsarehomogeneouslycoloured
Thirdunlikeastandardcellcellsforshinglemodules
have busbars at opposite ends and cells are sliced
into several strips which reduces the current and
consequentlytheloadonfingers(metallicsuper-thin
gridfingersperpendiculartothebusbarcollectingthe
generatedDCcurrentanddeliveringittothebusbars)
Thisalsoenablesareductioninthenumberoffingers
as well as their thickness which decreases shading
and improves output power of the cell (Shravan K
ChunduriK)
LEVEL OF MATURITY AND PROSPECTS
Half-cut
AccordingtotheITRPVasignificantuptickisforeseeninthenearfuture–fromless
thanmarketshareintoinandby
Shingles
AlthoughseveralcompaniesaredisplayingprototypeshinglemodulestheFraunhofer
ISEbelievesthatthetechnologyisnotyetmatureenoughespeciallyduetothefact
themanufacturingmachineryisnotcompletelyoptimised
Bifacial
FromalmostnegligiblepresenceintheITRPVanticipatesthebifacialconceptto
gainclosetomarketshareininandwithinthenextyears
Glass-glassmodules
DespitethesmallgrowthforeseenintheshorttermtheITRPVexpectsthetechnology
topick-upwithinthenextyearsandreachashare
Multi-busbars
TheITRPVexpectsthethree-busbarlayouttobephasedoutprogressivelyandbe
replacedbylayoutswithandmorebusbars(ShravanKChunduriK)
Source: (Shravan, K., Chunduri, K., 2019).
 APPLICATIONSBEYONDFIELDSANDROOFTOPS
Taking advantage of the rapidly growing solar PV
capacityacrosstheglobeseveralresearchprojectsor
prototypesareunderwaytostimulatefuturemarket
growth exploring innovating solar technologies at
theapplicationlevelThemajordevelopmentsareas
follows
FLOATINGPV
FloatingPVisanexcitingemergingmarketwiththe
potentialforrapidgrowthAccordingtoaWorldBank
report as of the end of September  the global
cumulativeinstalledcapacityoffloatingPVplantswas
GW(WorldBank)
Demand for floating PV is expanding especially
on islands (and other land-constrained countries)
because thecost of water surface is generally lower
thanthecostofland(GlobalData)Floatingsolar
isparticularlywellsuitedtoAsiawherelandisscarce
but thereare many hydroelectric dams with existing
transmissioninfrastructureUnsurprisinglytheworld’s
toptenplantsarelocatedinAsianamelyChinaJapan
and the Republic of Korea In particular Korea has
announcedthecompletionnextyearofwhatwillthen
becometheworld’slargestfloatingsolarplantwitha
capacityofMWOtherAsiancountriesnamely
Singapore Thailand Viet Nam and India are also
activelypursuingfloatingsolarprojectdevelopment
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FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
Europe has huge potential and demand for floating
PV–especiallyintheNetherlandsandFranceLarge-
scalepotentialcanalsobe found inopencastlignite
coal pits For instance today the largest floating
solar project is in China with a capacity of MW
and islocatedinaformercoal-mining areaof Anhui
ProvinceMeanwhileanotherplantineasternChina(in
PanjiDistrictHuainanCity)hasjustbeenconnected
becomingtheworld’slargestfloatingsolarplantwhich
willgeneratealmostmegawatthours(MWh)in
itsfirstyearHydropowerreservoirsandotherartificial
bodies of water also have enormous potential With
utility-scale power electronics and grid-connection
already established coupling PV with hydropower
offers significant added value (Willuhn M a)
For instance the Norway-based independent power
producer Statkraft announced the construction of
a MW floating PV plant in Albania The company
is using an innovative technology consisting of
a membrane-type flotation device metres in
diameter accommodating kilowatts (kW) of PV
Glass-glassmodulesaremountedontospecialrailsin
awaythatthemoduleswillbeinpermanentcontact
with a thermal membrane (designed to withstand
stress and sun exposure) that sits on the water’s
surfaceThewatercoolsthemembranewhichinturn
coolsthemodulesandenablesthemtoproducemore
energy(WilluhnMa)Inadditionbycovering
thesurfaceofthewaterreservoirfloatingsolarplants
canalsoreduceevaporationandprotectwaterquality
fromexcessivealgaegrowth(ThoubbornK)
As with any new technology however several
engineering challenges need to be overcome For
instance mooring (or anchoring) systems must be
designedtowithstandthedynamicforcesofwavesand
strongwindsandduetothenoveltyofthetechnology
mooringspecialistshavelimitedexperienceinapplying
suchsystemstofloatingPVplantsAsaresultfloating
PV installations are always moving to some extent
whichincreaseswithwindload
BUILDING-INTEGRATEDPVPANELS
Building-integrated PV (BIPV) solar panels are an
applicationalsoknownassolarshingles(seeabove)
BIPVsolutionshaveseveraladvantagesFirsttheyare
multifunctionalastheycanbeadaptedtoavarietyof
surfaces(egroofswindowswalls)asanintegrated
solutionprovidingbothpassiveandactivefunc tionsA
keypassivefunctionisthermalandacousticinsulation
as with any other construction material which is
complemented by a unique active function– thePV
component – which generates renewable electricity
that can be directly used in the building Other
functions also unique to BIPV systems include the
possibility of real-time thermal or lighting regulation
(SolarPowerEuropeb)
Second they provide a cost-efficient solution They
offer potential cost-reduction benefits related to
the savings on roofing material as well as potential
efficiencies and time saving in labourconstruction
(ie with roofing and panel installation done
simultaneously) MoreoverBIPVcanreducethecost
ofrefurbishmentandrenovationofexistingbuildings
and create a business case for efficient strategies
When compared to classic roofing materials BIPV
claddingissomewhatmoreexpensiveHoweverwhen
theadditionalrevenuegeneratedfromtheelectricity
produced is taken in to consideration this higher
costismorethanoffset(SolarPowerEuropeb)
Finallyotheradvantagesincludeversatilityanddesign
flexibilityinsizeshapeandcolour
AnEU-fundedprojectPVSITESiscurrentlydeveloping
anewgenerationofsolarpanelsthatcanbepartof
traditional house elements like roofs windows and
glassfaçadesTheprojectiscreatingBIPVsolarpanels
alongsidebuildingenergymanagementsystemsand
architecturaldesigntoolsTheaimistodemonstrate
the integration of effective energy production with
good design to create cost-effective buildings The
project is also developing design software tools for
architects to help them better integrate these novel
PVproductsintheirdesigns
- 45 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
SOLARTREES
Solar trees work very much like real ones as they
have leaf-like solar panels connected through metal
branches using sunlight to make energy Solar trees
can be seen as complementary to rooftop solar
systemsTheyaremoreergonomicthansolarpanels
taking nearly  times less space to produce the
sameamountofelectricityasahorizontalsolarplant
andassuchconstituteasolutionforland-andspace-
scarceeconomies
SOLAR-POWEREDDESALINATION
Most desalination plants today are powered by
fossil fuels which makes them unsustainable in the
long term The two techniques mostly used by the
desalination industry to produce potable water are
membrane-based(iereverseosmosisnanofiltration
and electrodialysis) and thermal (ie multi-stage
flash distillation multi-effect distillation) Because
membrane-based desalination techniques do not
require heat they can be coupled with wind and
solarpowergenerationWiththefallinthecostofPV
equipmentandtheincreasingdemandfordesalination
morePV-poweredmembranedesalinationplantscan
beexpectedinthecomingyears
However besides membrane-based desalination
technologies based on PV only there is also the
possibility of having thermal and membrane-based
desalination Thermal desalination technologies
requireheat and electricity to operate Solar energy
technologiessuchasconcentratingsolarpower(CSP)
and photovoltaic-thermal(PV-T)have thebenefit of
deliveringtherequiredthermalenergyasaby-product
whilegeneratingelectricity(CenJ)Currently
the first demonstration pilot project using PV-T to
power a thermal desalination plant based on multi-
effect distillation is being built at Jebel Ali (United
Arab Emirates) Thesolarfarmis designed insucha
way that it produces sufficient thermal – as well as
electrical – energy to run the desalination plant off-
gridDuringthedayexcesssolarenergyisstored
ina hotwater tankandbatteriespowerthe plantat
night(CenJ)
SOLARCARPORTS
Solar carportsareground-mounted solar panels that
areinstalledsothatparkinglotsandhomedriveways
can belaid underneathtoform a carportTheyhave
beenaverypopularalternativeorsupplementtothe
classicrooftopsystemswiththeadvantagethatthey
can be installed entirely independently of the roof
angle shape and orientation of the house Besides
providing shade to the vehicles parked underneath
theycan efficientlyproduceelectricityandthusoffer
a number of benefits First if coupled with a well-
designed charging system the electricity produced
canbeusedforEVchargingandthusreducethecosts
ofrunningthevehicle(ThurstomCW)Second
they can provide energy storage enhancements by
havingbatterystorageintegratedandavailableinthe
systemmakingthe solutionindependentofsunshine
hoursThirdunlikeground-levelsystemstheyareeasy
tocustomiseandcansavespaceastheydonotrequire
anadditionalstructureorlandtoinstallthemon
Theinstallationofsolarcarportsisincreasingsteadily
and several factors are driving the growth Cost is
indeedanimportantfactorastheapplicationismoving
out of the niche and into the mainstream and EV
adoptionisplayingapivotalroleThepricedifference
between rooftopPV and solar carports continues to
narrowandtheyarebecomingastrongandattractive
economicpropositioninagrowingnumberofmarkets
Increased commercial-scale application is also
driven by utilities which are embracing distributed
generationasawaytoimprovegridreliabilityFinally
spacesavingisanotherimportantaspectascarports
make better use of land that is already developed
instead of using open land One study by Callum
Watts at the University of California Davis showed
thatthelargestcommercialbuildingsintheUnited
States possess a total parking lot area of more than
eightmillionsquaremetreswhichifallcoveredwith
solar canopies would generate an annual total of
MWh(ThurstomCW)
- 46 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
SOLARPV-THERMALSYSTEMS
Solar PV-T systems combine the production of both
kinds of solar energy in one collector It consists of
a solar PV panel combined with a cooling system
wherecoolingagent(waterorair)iscirculatedaround
the PV panels to cool the solar cells such that the
warm water or air leaving the panels may be used
for domestic applications such as domestic heating
(Moharram et al ) This cooling system for PV
panelshasatwofoldbenefititsignificantlyincreases
theefficiencyofPVsystemsintheelectricitysector
anditalsoallowsforthecaptureoftheheatfromthe
PVsystemforuseinspacewaterandprocessheating
in a range of industriesandapplicationsIn fact PV
modules normally use – of the incoming solar
energywhiletherestislostintheformofheatThe
PV-Ttechnologyaimstoincreasetheoverallefficiency
byusingthis“lost”energytoheatairorwaterandat
the same time cool the PV cells by taking away the
heatfromthepanel
AGROPHOTOVOLTAIC
Agrophotovoltaic (APV) combines solar PV and
agricultureonthesamelandandconsistsofgrowing
crops beneath ground-mounted solar panels
Althoughtheconceptwasproposedlongagoithas
received littleattentionuntil recentlywhenseveral
researchershaveconfirmedthebenefitsofgrowing
crops beneath the shade provided by the solar
panelsTheseincludehigherelectricityproduction
highercropyieldsandlesswaterused(BeckMet
al)APVisawin-winsituationforbothcrops
and the solar panels Many types of food crops
suchastomatoesgrowbetterintheshadeofsolar
4 http://solarheateurope.eu/2018/04/30/increasingly-popular-heat-and-power-from-the-same-roof/.
panels astheyaresparedfromthedirect sunand
experience less water loss via transpiration which
also reduceswateruse while maintaining thesame
leveloffoodproductionAkeyadvantageforsolar
panelsisthattheirefficiencyisincreasedCultivating
crops underneath reduces the temperature of the
panelsastheyarecooleddownbythefactthatthe
cropsbelowareemittingwaterthroughtheirnatural
processoftranspiration(HanleyS)
Theproject“Agrophotovoltaics–Resource-Efficient
Land Use (APV-RESOLA)” has tested the APV
concept showing a land useefficiency of  in
andinandthusconfirmingearlier
researchresultsTheprojectislocatedinGermany
nearLakeConstanceandconsistsofa
kWsolar
systemona metrehighstructureabovelandused
togrow celery clover potatoes andwinter wheat
(Tsanova T ) The project results show that
in  land use efficiency increased with yields
fromthreeofthefourcropsgrownunderthepanels
achieving above the reference yield thanks to the
shade under the solar modules which helped
them to better resist the dry conditions in 
In fact solar irradiation beneath the PV system
was approximately  less than the reference
field the soil temperature was lower even if the
air temperature remained the same and the soil
moisture was kept higher than the referencefield
insummerandlowerinwintermonthsTheproject
confirmed the applicability of APV inarid regions
(giventhe exceptionallyhot anddryconditionsof
) especially in developing countries it also
callsfortheexplorationofAPV’sapplicabilityunder
other climate conditions and with other types of
crops(TsanovaT)
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FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
 OPERATIONANDMAINTENANCE
An operation and management (O&M) system is
a key component of a solar plant asit ensures that
thePVsystemwillbeabletomaintainhighlevelsof
technicalandeconomicperformanceoveritslifetime
(SolarPower Europe O&M Task Force ) In
additiontheO&Mphaseisthelongestinthelifecycle
of a PV project as it typically lasts – years As
suchensuringthequalityofO&Mservicesisessential
tomitigatepotentialrisks
Innovationsandimprovementsincludingmoredata-
drivensolutionsarebecomingincreasinglyimportant
becausetheyhelpO&Mservicestokeepupwithmarket
requirements Important trends in O&M innovation
canbegroupedintwomaincategories)smartPV
powerplantmonitoringand)retrofitcoatingsforPV
modules
SMARTPVPOWERPLANTMONITORING
DronesforintelligentmonitoringofsolarPV
TheexponentialgrowthseeninPVmarketshasledto
the development of large-scale power plants which
hasincreaseddemandsforbettertoolsforinspection
andmonitoringNormallytheprocessofmonitoring
is done by conducting manual inspections however
these can be replaced by intelligent systems such
asdrones Drones arebecoming highlysuitedtothe
solarindustryduetoawiderangeofsurveillanceand
monitoring capabilities the possibility of long-range
inspectionandeasycontrolInrecentyearstheyhave
becomepopularfortheircapabilitytomonitorlarge-
scalesolarparksinlesstimethanbyhumaninspection
Withthehelpofsensingelementsdronesefficiently
capturethenecessarydataandsendthemtothecloud
for analysis in less time and in more accurate form
(Kumaretal)
PVplantpoweroutputforecasting
ElectricitygenerationfromPVplantsislimitedbythe
variable nature of the sun’s radiation The growing
penetrationofPVintoelectricitymarketscreatesthe
need for new regulations to guarantee grid stability
and the correct balancing of electricity demand and
supply (SolarPower Europe O&M Task Force )
The ability to predict PV production is therefore an
essentialtooltocaptureeconomiesinamarketwitha
highpenetrationofnon-predictableenergyCurrently
simulation models and meteorological forecasting
resources for specific PV plants are well proven
technologies Algorithms that are able to match
weather forecasts with PV plant characteristics are
beingusedtopredictenergyproductiononanhourly
basisforatleastthenexthours
In thiscontextshort-term datacollectionrepresents
a valuable opportunity to improve PV plant yield
forecasting and improvements in communication
proceduresbetweendevices(iemodulesinverters
sensorsetc)wouldcontributetoimprovingintraday
forecastingcalculationofperformanceexpectations
and exchange with the energy grid (SolarPower
Europe O&M Task Force ) Solar monitoring is
indeedakeycomponentinassetoperationhowever
theprocessisoftendifficultmainlyduetotwofactors
Firstarefrequentfailingsincommunicationbetween
devicesandthecloudordatacentreinfrastructureTo
overcome this challenge theInternet of things(IoT)
representsavalidsolutionforPVsystemsasitisan
interoperability environment whereall devices in the
fieldareconnectedtoeachotherandspontaneously
show themselves as available to be connected to
the system (SolarPower Europe O&M Task Force
)Secondisthelackofproperstandardisationof
terminologyandlanguagesusedbyallcommunicating
devices In this regard efforts are being made
throughout the whole PV market to increase
standardisationofcommunicationwhichwillimprove
the security level options for communication and
configuration costs for solar monitoring (SolarPower
EuropeO&MTaskForce)
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FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
SmartPVplantmonitoring
Innovations in monitoring systems aim to improve
theabilitytoidentifytherootcausesofperformance
problems that lead to plant underperformance and
unavailability These innovations include advances
in single plant and system portfolio monitoring and
management such as ) automated maintenance
(preventiveandemergency)interventionmanagement
and (re)scheduling based on parameters such as
alarmsand performancedata and ) algorithmsfor
equipmentorplantbehaviourandreliabilitypredictions
basedonhistoricalfailuredataandsimulationmodels
(KICInnoEnergy)
RETROFITCOATINGSFORPVMODULES
Solarpowercoolant
Whileprogressisbeingmadeonincreasingefficiency
andmaximisingpoweroutputofsolarPVdifficulties
remain in addressing the need to keep solar PV
modules cool because their performance and
lifetime are reduced by the heat of the sun In fact
the chemical reactions that cause degradation of
solarmodules doublefor everyCincreaseabove
ambient temperature (around C) causing their
lifetime as well as their voltage output to shrink
(FilatofN)PV-T systemsarecurrentlyoneof
themostpopularmethodsforcoolingPVpanelsOther
techniques include the useofwater which has been
widelyresearchedbutlesssuccessfullyappliedasan
effectivePVcoolantaroundtheworldbecausewhile
water can be extremely effective in maintaining the
equilibriumofsolarpanelsincorporatingwater-based
systems into module manufacturing or installation
addscostandcomplexity(FilatofN)
Other approaches include applying a transparent
coating of patterned silica to solar cells to capture
and radiate heat from infrared rays back to the
atmosphereThiswasfoundtoimproveabsolutecell
efficiency by more than  Other researchers have
found that greater improvements in efficiency can
be obtained through processes including infrared
reflationandradiativetransfersTheideaistoreflect
thewavelengthsoflightintheinfraredthatcellscannot
use(butsimplyabsorbtoheatupthesystem)before
they enter the module If done perfectly this would
resultinatemperaturedropofabout CRadiative
transfertotheskyortocoolerareasaroundthepanels
holdsthegreatestpromiseforboostingsolarmodule
efficiency(FilatofNf)
Anti-soilingsolutions
Regular module washing is common practice in PV
plants as soiling can significantly and negatively
impact their performance For instance in Europe
soiling causes an average  power loss with
significantrainwhich cango ashighasinnon-
rainyenvironmentsInthiscontextseveralanti-soiling
solutionsarebeingimplemented
First robotic panel cleaning technology consists of
robots moving along the array of panels Robotic
cleaning strategies involve substantial CAPEX
investment but are very effective for areas with
high soiling rates insufficient water supplies and
high labour costs They are mostly deployed in the
MiddleEastandNorthAfricaastheyarebestsuited
for frequent washing schedules such as those that
requirewashing on a weekly basis (Mesbahi )
Secondsprinklersystemsconsistofawaterfiltration
system and a soap dispensing system mainly used
in very dry areas to keep the panels clean with the
same cleaning effect as rain This is indeed a very
good and tested system however it has two main
disadvantages ) thelarge amounts of water used
and)theneedtoconstantlymonitorfiltersandsoap
levels which is costly and time consuming Finally
anti-soilingcoatingsareusedtotreatmodulessothat
theygetdirtylessquicklywhilemakingthemeasierto
cleanandthusmaintainhigherperformancelevelsfor
longer(Solar PowerEurope O&MTaskForce)
Currently various anti-soiling coatings are already
commerciallyavailableandhavebeeninstalledand
in parallel new solutions are also being developed
mostlybasedonspraytechnologies
- 49 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
Biotechnologyseed selection for zero vegetation
treatment
Ground-mountedPVplantsmaysufferfromshadingif
vegetationinsideandoutsidetheplantisnotproperly
controlled The main innovations in this area seek
to reduce the maintenance required without using
pesticidesorotherdangerousproductsInparticular
theseinclude
• Usingweedcontrolfabricsinsidetheplantunderthe
modulesandaroundtheperimetertohelplimitweed
growth These fabrics combine soil erosion control
and weed control into a single product thereby
minimisingmaintenanceneedsforgreenareas
• Selecting seeds of plants with slow growth and
limited height to avoid the need for frequent
maintenance(KICInnoEnergy)
 END-OFLIFEMANAGEMENTOFSOLARPV
Despitethe growthofsolarPVanditsbrightfuture
the sun sets on even the best panels As the global
PVmarketincreasesso will theneedtopreventthe
degradation of panels and manage the volume of
d e co m m i s s i o n e d P V p a n e l s T h e s e c t i o n s b e l o w e x p l o r e
innovativeandalternativewaystoreducematerialuse
and module degradation andopportunities toreuse
andrecyclePVpanelsattheendoftheirlifetime
Theframeworkofacirculareconomyandtheclassic
wastereductionprinciples(reducereuseandrecycle)
canalsobeappliedtoPVpanels
REDUCEMATERIALSAVINGSINPVPANELS
Thebestoptionistoincreasetheefficiencyofpanelsby
reducingtheamountofmaterialusedWhilstthemixof
materials hasnotchangedsignificantlyefficient mass
productionmaterialsubstitutionsandhigher-efficiency
technologies are already happening thanks to strong
marketgrowthscarcityofrawmaterialsandreduction
of PV panel prices Research is progressing towards
reducing the amount of hazardous materials as well
as minimising amount of material per panel to save
costsPVmaterialavailabilityisnotamajorconcernin
theneartermalthoughcriticalmaterialsmightimpose
limitationsinthelongtermInadditionhigherpriceswill
improvetheeconomicsofrecyclingactivitiesanddrive
investment for more efficient mining processes such
as extraction of metals used in the PV manufacturing
process (ie silver aluminium copper and tin) R&D
forPVisfocusingonreducingorsubstitutingdifferent
components used for solar PV panels namely c-Si
panels(glasssiliconetc)CIGSpanels(glasspolymer
aluminium etc) and CdTe panels (glass polymer
nickeletc)(IRENAandIEA-PVPS)
REUSEREPAIRINGPVPANELS
MostPVsystemswereinstalledinthelastsixyearsA
six-year-oldpaneltodayhasagedbyanequivalentof
ofitsexpectedaveragelifetimeofyears(IRENA
and IEA-PVPS ) If flaws and imperfections are
discovered during the early phase of a PV panel’s
life customers can claim guarantees for repair or
replacementandinsurancecompaniesmaybeinvolved
tocompensateforsomeoralloftherepairreplacement
costs When replacement happens quality tests to
check electrical safety and power output – such as
flashtestcharacterisationandawetleakagetest–can
beundertakentorecoversomevaluefromareturned
panelthroughresaleRepairedPVpanelscanalsobe
resoldasreplacementsorasusedpanelsatareduced
marketpriceofapproximatelyoftheoriginalsales
priceandpartlyrepairedpanelsorcomponentsmight
besoldonthesecond-handmarket(IRENAandIEA-
PVPS)
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FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
RECYCLEDECOMMISSIONINGAND
TREATMENTOFPVPANELS
FuturewastemanagementofinstalledPVsystems
largelydependsontheirtypeandsizeForexample
whilst the small and highly dispersed nature of
rooftop PV systems can add significant costs to
dismantlingcollectionandtransportofexpiredPV
panelswastemanagementoflargeutility-scalePV
applicationsislogisticallyeasierCurrentlyPVwaste
quantities are very moderate which reduces the
economic incentive to create dedicated PV panel
recyclingplantsEnd-of-lifePVpanelsaretherefore
typically processed in existing general recycling
plants However in the long run constructing
dedicatedPVpanelrecyclingplantscouldincrease
treatment capacity and maximise revenues thanks
to better output quality and could also increase
the recovery of valuable constituents Recycling
technologies for PV panels have already been
researchedforthepastyearsandnowthemain
challenge is to keep abreast of ongoing cell and
panelinnovationstoobtainthebestpossibleresults
atacceptablecosts(IRENAandIEA-PVPS)
Given the estimated growth of PV panel waste
volumes the management of end-of-life PV panels
isworthexaminingalongwiththeassociatedsocio-
economic and environmental benefits (IRENA and
IEA-PVPS)
The value creation stemming from end-of-life PV
managementinvolves
• Unlocking raw materials and their value The
extraction of secondary raw materials from end-
of-life PV panels could create important value for
theindustryPVpanelshaveanaveragelifetimeof
yearsandtheybuildupalargestockofembodied
raw materials that will not become available for
recovery for some time As such recovered raw
materialcanbeinjectedbackintotheeconomyand
servetoproducenewPVpanelsorotherproducts
thus increasing the security of future PV supply
Rapidly growing panel waste volumes over time
willstimulateamarketforsecondaryrawmaterials
originatingfromend-of-lifePVpanels
• Creating new industries and jobs in the PV
sector The acceptance of future PV panel waste
management systems depends on co-operation
among the different players across industry
such as waste management companies utilities
governments producers etc End-of-life PV panel
management holds the potential to develop new
pathwaysforindustrygrowthandoffersemployment
opportunities for different stakeholders Similarly
the PV recycling industry will necessitate trained
staff with specific skills and knowledge education
andtrainingprogrammes
- 51 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
BoxSOLARPVPERFORMANCEUNDEREXTREMEWEATHEREVENTS
Extremeweathereventsareclearlyaffectingthesolarindustryandarebecomingthebiggestcauseof
failureofanyPVplantSolarinstallationshavetocopewithdifferentnaturaldisastersandasthefrequency
ofsuch extremeevents growsthe industrywillhavetofindwaysof survivingandadjusting tothem
IndeeddesignconstructionandoperationalfactorsgreatlyinfluenceaPVsystem’ssurvivabilityfroma
severeweathereventAssuchtheindustry’seffortsarechannelledtowardsbothtechnicalimprovements
andthedevelopmentandapplicationofupdatedcodesandstandardstokeepupwiththelessonslearned
fromfieldexperience
Fire
Therehavebeenfire-relatedincidentsinvolvingPVsystemsinseveralcountriessuchastheUnitedStates
GermanyandJapanIntheveryrarecaseswherethePVsystemwasthemaincauseandsourceofthefire
themaincausesrelatetogroundorarcfaultsHoweverregardlessofthesourceofthefirePVsystems
canaffecttheabilityoffirefighterstoextinguishtheflamesCommonhazardsincludeelectricalshocks
collapseofroofstructuresduetotheadditionalweightofaPVsystemandslipperyglasssurfacesonan
inclinedroofBesidesintroducingguidelinesforfirefighterscountrieshavealsoproducedguidelineson
technologiesproductsandinstallationtomitigatefirehazardsTheseincludeforinstanceguidanceon
installationtoreducetheincidenceoffiresandshocks(egground-faultcircuitinterrupters[GFCIs]and
arc-faultcircuitinterrupters[AFCIs])(IEA-PVPS)
Hurricanesandtornadoes
RecentstormshavenotonlyhighlightedfactorscontributingtoPVsystemsurvivabilitybutalsothose
leadingtofailure(USDOE)HavinggoodO&Mpracticesisakeyfactorinsurvivabilityandpre-and
post-stormmeasurescanbeappliedtominimisedamageandrecoverytime
One of the most common causes of equipment loss are solar fasteners An easy measure to prevent
disassemblyistoproperlyusetwistfastenerswithatruelockingcapabilityandhighlyeffectivehardware
andthenproceedtoaudittheresultsClampingfastenerswhichareverypracticalandfastandeasyto
assemblearenotadequateforPVsystemsinextremeweatherareasastheycanbeeasilydamaged
inhighwindsInadditionsinceoneclampingfastenerissharedbetweentwomodulesthelossofone
creates a domino effect and causes the loss of neighbouring modules A solution to this is to fasten
themoduletothesupportstructurethroughmountingholesusingfastenerswithspecifictwistratings
Moduleselectionisalsoanotherimportantaspectaspreferenceshouldbegiventomodulesthathave
the highestratings in termsof resistanceto pressureSimilarly modules shouldbe well supportedby
frameelementstoavoidbendingandtwistingduringstrongwindsSolarrackingwithathree-framerail
systemformodulemountingprovidesgreaterrigidityandsupportthanatwo-framerailTrackersforsolar
arrayshavealsoimprovedindesignandnolongerdependonsteeltosupportthembutratherusecontrol
sensorstoadjusttheangleinrelationtowindstrengthandsafelypositionthepanelduringstorms(US
DOE)
- 52 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SUPPLY-SIDE AND MARKET EXPANSION
BoxTHEIMPORTENCEOFSTANDARDSINTHESOLARPVINDUSTRY
Standards are essential for ensuring safety andquality in the solar PV sector especially because the
reliabilityperformanceanddurabilityofsolarequipmentiscriticaltoensuringsmoothoperationofsolar
powerplantsMoreovercompliancewithminimumstandardsisalsooftenaprerequisiteforfeed-in-tariffs
providedbygovernmentstosolarpowerdevelopersCurrentlyalmostallmodulesarecertifiedtomeet
internationalstandards for design qualificationand safety eveniftherearestillexamplesoffailurein
large-scalemodulesandPVsystemsaswellasoutrightfraud
Internationaleffortsarethereforechannelledtowardsstrengtheningstandardsforqualitymanagement
systems formodule factoriesand visualinspectionof incomingproducts Giventhe need toimprove
understandingofproductreliabilityandvalidationintheInternationalPVQualityAssuranceTask
Force(PVQAT)wasformedinitiallyonlycomprisingUSEuropeanandJapanesenationallaboratories
Ithasnowexpandedtoincludeoverscientistsandengineersworkingaroundtheglobe(Kellyand
Maheshnd)Oneofthetaskforce’skeyeffortsistodevelopscientificmethodstopredictpossiblefailure
bycreatingneworimprovedstandardsAswithmanyindustriesthePVindustryhasgonethroughalong
historyandprogressionofstandardsdevelopmentwhichplayacentralroleinsupportingtechnological
innovationandtheemergenceofanindustryThePVindustryhasachievedahighlevelofmaturityand
massproductionmeaning that the equipmentandraw materialsfor panel manufacturing needto be
standardisedForinstance“ingressprotectionlevels”areusedforinverterscablesandmodulesandthe
assignednumbertellsthecustomerinaverysimplewaythedegreetowhichaninverterisprotectedfrom
rainanddust
ThePVindustryisevolvingatafastpaceandtheprocessofinternationalstandardisationtendstomovetoo
slowlytomatchcertainindustrydevelopmentsForinstancethefurtherdevelopmentofstandardisation
certificationinspectionandtestingservicesisclearlynecessaryespeciallyregarding)thedurabilityof
solarmodules)definedqualityrequirementsinnationalprogrammestodevelopsolarPV)certification
schemesforPVsystemsandtheirinstallersbothinemergingandmaturemarkets)publicguidelinesfor
theeffectivedesignandinstallationofdistributedandoff-gridPVsystemsindevelopingcountries(IRENA
a)Alsointhecontextoffailuresrelatingtowindwhichisthemostcommonreasonfordamageto
PVsystemsthereisalackofstandardstosufficientlyinformmanufacturersandprojectdevelopersThere
arenowindloadstandardsthattakeintoaccountstaticanddynamicloadsspecifictosingle-axissolar
trackers(WilluhnMb)
- 53 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND OTHER BENEFITS OF SOLAR PV IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ENERGY TRANSFORMATION
6. SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND OTHER BENEFITS
OF SOLAR PV IN THE CONTEXT OF THE
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION
 SOLARPVSECTOREMPLOYMENTANDLOCALVALUECHAINS
5 This figure is an IRENA estimate based on a US Solar Foundation report that puts employment in all solar technologies at about 242 000 jobs, but
does not offer a breakdown for solar PV (Solar Foundation, 2019).
Employmentopportunitiesare akeyconsideration
inplanningforlow-carboneconomicgrowthMany
governments have prioritised renewable energy
development firstly to reduce emissions and meet
international climate goals but also in pursuit of
broadersocio-economicbenefits
The solar industry was estimated to employ

million people worldwide in  (Figure )
The industry has witnessed the most rapid growth
inemploymentofallrenewableenergytechnologies
andistodaythejobsleaderOverallAsiaishometo
almost
millionsolarPVjobs(oftheglobaltotal)
followedbyNorthAmerica’sshareAfrica’s
andEurope’s(IRENAi)
Basedonitsleadingroleasaproducerandexporter
ofPVequipmentandastheworld’slargestinstallation
market China accounted for almost two-thirds of
PV employmentworldwideor some million jobs
SolarPVemploymentintheEuropeanUnioncontinued
its declineand wasestimatedat 
jobsin 
(the most recent year for which data are available)
This reflects limited manufacturing activity and
reduced domestic installations In the UnitedStates
employment fell for a second year in  to an
estimated 
jobs
Japan’s solar PV industry
also continues to face difficulties Although the
country’sinstallationmarketisstilloneoftheworld’s
largestannualadditionshavedeclinedforthreeyear
inarowduetoreductionsinfeed-intariffsandother
policy changes land shortages and grid constraints
(IRENAi)
These experiences underscore the continuing
importance of having appropriate policies both for
installations(egdeploymentandintegrationpolicies)
and for manufacturing (egindustrialpolicyand
related measures) Despite setbacks there is reason
to believe that the future of solar PV employment
is nonetheless bright given the urgency for more
ambitious climate and energy transition policies as
well as the expectation that countries are learning
important lessons on the design and coherence of
policies
Arisingoutofitsmodellingworkthatassessesthe
socio-economicimplicationsoftheREmapscenario
IRENA estimates that employment in the solar
industrycouldexceed
millionjobsinand

millionin (Figure) Another reason for
optimism is thegrowing application of decentralised
off-grid solar PV especially incountries andregions
of the world where energy access is still limited A
recent estimate by GOGLA and Vivid Economics
() suggests that such applications have already
generatedsome
jobsinSouthAsiaandparts
of sub-Saharan Africa alone Given continued cost
reductions and enforcement of equipment quality
standards employment may be expected to expand
significantlyincomingyears
- 54 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND OTHER BENEFITS OF SOLAR PV IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ENERGY TRANSFORMATION
Figure ThesolarPVindustryemployedmillionpeopleworldwideinandthisnumberisexpected
torisefurtherto
millionpeoplebyintheREmapcase
2050
2018
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
14
16 18 20
18.7
2030
3.6
11.7
Solar PV jobs
Solar PV jobs (million)
15.1 million
additional jobs
2018–50
Sources: IRENA (2019a, 2019j).
The rising traction of the solar energy industry
demands a growing array of skills including
technical business administrative economic and
legalamongothersWideningthetalentpoolisthus
a pragmatic reason for boosting the participation
of women in renewable energy in addition to
considerationsofgreatergenderequityandfairness
(Box)(IRENAj)
BoxIRENA’SWORKONGENDERBALANCEINTHEENERGYSECTOR
Recognisingagapingender-disaggregateddatafortherenewableenergysectorinIRENApresenteda
stand-alonereportongenderthatintegratesup-to-dateinformationfromaroundtheworldandresultsfrom
aglobal surveyconducted by IRENA with supportof GWNET andRENThe survey benefited fromthe
participationofaboutwomenmenandorganisationsincountriesSurveyresultsshowthatthe
sectoremploysalargershareofwomen()comparedtotheconventionalenergyfield()(IRENAj)
Figure WomeninSTEMNON-STEMtechnicalandadministrativejobsintheenergysector
Source: IRENA, (2019j).
In addition IRENA is working on a newanalysis of the gender dimension of employmentimpacts among
localruralcommunitiesaffectedbylarge-scalerenewableenergyprojectdevelopmentThestudyisgathering
primarydatafromsolarandwindprojectsbeingdevelopedacrosssub-SaharanAfrica(IRENAforthcomingb)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
STEM jobs
Administrative jobs
32% average share
STEM = science, technology, engineering and mathematics.
45%
28%
Non-STEM technical jobs
35%
- 55 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND OTHER BENEFITS OF SOLAR PV IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ENERGY TRANSFORMATION
DOMESTICINDUSTRYFORPANEL
MANUFACTURINGANDOPPORTUNITIES
FORLOCALVALUECREATION
Countries that do not have sufficient capacity to
manufacture equipment locally can derive jobs and
otherbenefitsinsegmentsofthevaluechainthatare
easier to localise Opportunities for domestic value
creationcanbecreatedineachsegmentofthevalue
chainin theform of jobsandincomegenerationfor
enterprisesoperatinginthecountryLocalvaluechains
havethepotentialtodeveloplocalindustryandcreate
jobsHowevertoidentifyemergingopportunitiesand
understandthepolicymeasuresrequiredtotranslate
socio-economic potential into real gains in the
context of solarPV deployment policy makersneed
athoroughunderstandingofthelabourmaterialsand
equipmentrequirementsofeachsegmentofthevalue
chainIRENA’sLeveragingLocalCapacityreportseries
examines these requirements in various renewable
energy industries including the solar PV industry
(IRENA b) A solar water heating study will be
publishedin(IRENAforthcomingc)
Figureshowsthemainmaterialsneededforplants
intheseindustriesandthereforeindicatesthekindsof
industriesmostrelevanttosupplytheinputsneeded
for renewable energy deployment Maximising value
creation from the development of a domestic solar
PV industry for example requires capacities to be
leveraged in industries such as glass aluminium
silicon andsemiconductors Leveragingthis capacity
canprovideexpertiserawmaterialsandintermediary
products for manufacturing PV components such as
PV cells and modules inverters trackers mounting
structuresandelectricalequipment
FigureMaterialsrequiredforaMWsolarPVplant
Glass
70
tonnes
Steel
56
tonnes
Concrete
47
tonnes
Aluminium
19
tonnes
Silicon
7
tonnes
Copper
7
tonnes
Plastic
6
tonnes
Source: IRENA (2017b).
The Leveraging Local Capacity report series also
generates valuable information for policy makers on
the occupational and skill structure along the value
chain Figure  shows the labour requirement for
solarPVfarms
For the development of a typical MW solar PV
project a total of around 
person-days is
required from project planning to manufacturing
installation and O&M as well as decommissioning
The highest labour requirements are in O&M ()
followed by procurement and manufacturing ()
and construction and installation () In the
procurement and manufacturing segment factory
workers andtechniciansrepresent ofthelabour
requirementfollowedbyengineers()IntheO&M
segmentconstructionworkersaccountforofthe
labourrequirementfollowedbysafetyexperts()
andengineers()
- 56 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND OTHER BENEFITS OF SOLAR PV IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ENERGY TRANSFORMATION
Figure Distributionofhumanresourcesandoccupationalrequirementsalongthevaluechain
(MWsolarPV)
50 MW solar PV:
229 055 person-days
Project Planning
1%
2 %
2 %
17 %
56 %
22 %
Source: IRENA (2017b).
Construction workers factory workers and
engineers are the most-needed occupations But
there is also a need for people with a wide range
of additional skills experiences and backgrounds
including in the STEM fields (science technology
engineeringandmathematics)thelegalprofession
logisticsmarketinglandacquisitionpermittingand
manyothers
Themaincomponentsofasolarplantthatdecision
makers may consider suitable for manufacturing
domestically are the solar cells solar modules
inverterstrackersmountingstructuresandgeneral
electrical components (IRENA b) To avoid
skills gaps however education and training must
be attuned to the emerging needs of the industry
Thisiscrucialastrainingandskillbuildingforman
importantpartofeffortstogeneratecapablelocal
supplychainsAspectssuchasgovernmentpolicies
incentivisinglocalvaluecreationavailabilityofraw
materials and the presence of related industries
are the main drivers for the local manufacturing
of PV components However the development of
a domestic manufacturing industry for solar PV
modules may be difficult where domestic markets
are insufficient in volume where neighbouring or
other countriesarealreadylarge producerswhere
pricesareloworvolatileandwhereovercapacityis
alreadysignificant
The creation of domestic manufacturing capacity
for solar PV requires access to highly specialised
subcomponents as well as raw materials and
benefitsfromtheexistenceofindustriessuchasglass
aluminium and silicon that can provide the needed
intermediaryproductsforthemanufacturingofallPV
components(IRENAb)
The high level of competition in the solar PV panel
market mainly due to the future market demand
in and the competitiveness of leading countries is
compoundedbythefactthattransportingsolarenergy
equipmentislesscumbersomethantransportingother
renewabletechnologies(suchaswind)
- 57 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND OTHER BENEFITS OF SOLAR PV IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ENERGY TRANSFORMATION
 CLUSTERINGWITHOTHERLOW-CARBONTECHNOLOGIES
HYBRIDSYSTEM
Toovercomepowersupplyintermittencyarisingfrom
thevariableresourcecharacteristicofsolarenergyand
tomaintainthereliabilityandcontinuousoperationof
thepowersystemattimesoflowresourceavailability
one solution is to combine solar systems with other
renewablegenerationsources such as wind(onshore
and offshore) hydro or storage technologies or
emergingtechnologiessuchashydrogenInthe
world’s first hybrid project – combining MW of
windandMWofsolarPVgeneration alongwitha
MWlithium-ionenergystoragecapacityunit–was
installedbyBuildYourDreams(BYD)andtheStateGrid
CorporationofChinainZhangbeiHebeiProvince(JRC
)InthewindsupplierVestasannounceda
large-scale hybrid project that combines MW
of wind and MW of solar generation along with a
MWbatterystoragecapacityunitTheglobalhybrid
solar-windmarketisexpectedtogrowfrommorethan
USD
billion in  to over USDbillion by
reflectingaCAGRofnearlyovertheseven-
year period (ZionMarkerResearch)Chinawas
themajormarketforsolar-windhybridsystemsin
andisexpectedtodominateincomingdecades
Certain countries have already deployed hybrid
projects(Box)andasteadyriseintheirnumbercan
be expectedespecially as a complimentary solution
forsolvinggridintegrationissues
BoxHYBRIDRENEWABLESDEVELOPMENTS
Reflectingthemanybenefitsavailablefromcombiningrenewablespowergenerationsourceswithstorage
projectshavebeeninitiatedinvariouscountries
HYBRID RENEWABLES DEVELOPMENTS IN COUNTRIES
Europe VestasandEDPcompletedSpain’sfirsthybridMWwind-solarprojectin
India
InIndiaintroducedanationalwind-solarhybridpolicytoresolvegridintegrationis-
sueswithaproposedtargetofGWofhybridprojectstobeinstalledby(ZionMar-
ketResearch)JustpriortoapprovalofthispolicyHeroFutureEnergiescompleted
India’sfirsthybridprojectcombiningaMWwindfarmwithaMWsolarPVsitein
RaichurdistrictinAprilThisprojectisaimedtoberetrofittedwithlithium-ionbattery
storagetechnologytocombatcurtailmentduringtimesofstrongwindresourceavailability
TheSolarEnergyCorporationofIndiarecentissuedtendersforGWofhybridwindand
solarprojectstobeconnectedtothecountry’sInterstateTransmissionSystem
UnitesStates
GERenewableEnergyaimstodevelopthecountry’sfirstcommercialintegratedMW
hybridwindandsolarprojectinthestateofMinnesotaNextEraandtheUSutility
PortlandGeneralElectricwillbuildaMWwind-solarplusstoragehybridprojectin
easternOregon
- 58 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND OTHER BENEFITS OF SOLAR PV IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ENERGY TRANSFORMATION
7. STRUCTURING PV BUSINESS MODELS
ACCORDING TO HOW THEY COMPETE
WITH OTHER GENERATION SOURCES
ThankstoreductionsinsystempricesPVcompetitiveness
hasimprovedremarkablyinthepastfewyearsInmany
markets self-consuming PV electricity is already more
attractivefromaneconomicpointofviewthanbuying
electricityfromthe grid However under this scenario
conventional electricity networks are undermined by
customers reducing their energy demand through
private generation mainly rooftop solar PV panels
creating a phenomenon called the “death spiral” As
more consumers self-generate electricity the amount
of electricity purchased from the network is reduced
which reduces the revenue the network receives to
coverfixedcosts(egpowernetworkmaintenance)and
necessitates increasing tariff charges The increase in
tariffssimplyintensifiestheproblemhencethe“spiral”
reference(Grace)
In this new context the power industry is being
completely transformed and new and dynamic
businessmodelsforPVsystemscanbedevelopedand
structuredaccordingtohowtheycompetewithother
generationsources(BSWSolar)
FirstaPV systemcan competeatgridparitylevel
andthisimpliesthatcompetitionwouldtakeplaceat
or close to the point of grid-supplied consumption
depending on how granular the market is In this
casePV systems havea naturalcost advantageas
they are able to generate electricity at the point of
consumption without the need to have transmission
and distribution grids to supply an electricity
consumer(unlikeothersources)SecondaPVsystem
can compete at generationparity level with other
generation sources In this case however the cost
advantageresultingfromavoidedtransmissioncosts
cannotbeleveragedbythePVsystemeitherbecause
thegridis neededtosupplyconsumersorbecause
competition takes place between alternatives that
bothgenerateatthepointofconsumption(egdiesel
generationandPV)(BSWSolar)
ThedifferentPVbusinessmodelsarepresentedinthe
boxbelow
BoxPVBUSINESSMODELS
Self-consumption
Self-consumption occurs when the PV system owner and the electricity consumer are the same entity
electricityisconsumedonsitewithnoneedtousethegridandexcesselectricitycanbesoldtoathirdparty
Self-consumptionofPVelectricitygeneratedonsitecanbeanopportunityforconsumerstoreduceelectricity
costsgridchargesandotherfeesforelectricitysupplyAtamacrolevelgridcostsforthetransmissionof
electricityarealsosaved(fornon-grid-connectedsystems)andCOemissionsavoidedthankstotheclean
electricitygenerationofPVApplicationsegmentsaregenerallycharacterisedbyahighkWhpriceforgrid
electricityandincludeprivatehouseholdsandcommercialandindustrialpowerconsumersInadditiona
PVsystemownerdoesnotnecessarilyneedtocompletelycutofffromthegridbutcanusethegridasa
back-upproviderwhichalsoentailscostsavingsInfactasystemgenerating ofitspowerfromPV
enhancedwithbatterieswhilerelyingonthegridforofpowerneedswouldbemorecost-efficientthan
apowersystemrelyingonsolarPV
Twoformsofself-consumptionarenetmeteringandnetbilling
Netmetering
Netmeteringisameasurethatpromotestheuseofdistributedgenerationforlocalconsumptionbyproviding
compensation to distributed generators owners (IRENAd) In practical terms netmeteringallows
consumerstofeedelectricitytothegridwhentheydonotneeditandconsumefromthegridwhentheydo
- 59 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND OTHER BENEFITS OF SOLAR PV IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ENERGY TRANSFORMATION
In thecontextof solarPVthere are twokeyadvantagesofanetmeteringscheme Firstit incentivises
high levels of PV deploymentin application segmentswhere the demand curveofindividual consumers
doesnotmatchthesolargenerationprofileandthusrepresentsthebeststrategyifthegoalistohavethe
highestpossibledeploymentofPVintheelectricitysystemSeconditallowselectricitytobegeneratedand
consumedonsiteandthereforeminimisestheneedfortheoften-expensivetransmissionofpoweracross
longdistancesHowevernetmeteringalsohasseveraldisadvantagesForinstancewhileavoidingtheneed
fortransmissioninvestmentitplacesasignificantamountofpressureontheofteninflexibleandcentralised
gridresultingindistributionproblems
Netbilling
Netbillingisamarket-basedcompensationmechanismasprosumercompensationisbasedontheactual
marketvalueofthekWhconsumedorinjectedintothegridTheinvoiceissuedbytheretailsuppliertothe
consumerisbasedonthevalueofwithdrawnelectricityaftersubtractingthevalueoftheinjectedenergy
(Energy Community ) Netbillingcontributes to enhanced gridintegration of renewable electricity
byincreasingthesystem’sflexibilitybyengagingtheprosumerandbyprovidingelectricitybillsavingfor
prosumersExamplesofnetbillingschemescanbefoundintheIndonesiaItalyMexicoPortugalandthe
UnitedStates(NewYorkandArizona)
DirectlinePPA
AdirectlinePPAiswhenthePVsystemownersellselectricitydirectlytoanearbyconsumerwhowould
otherwisehaveboughtitdirectlyfromthegridatretailpricesThemainadvantageforconsumersofsucha
schemeisthatitguaranteesafixedcostforelectricityoveralongperiodoftimeprovidingahedgeagainst
risingenergyprices
UtilityPPA
AutilityPPAiswhenaninvestorsellstheelectricityproducedtoautilityordistributionsystemoperator
(DSO)whowouldotherwisehaveboughtitdirectlyfromothergenerationsourcesatthecostofgenerating
electricityThemainadvantageforgeneratorsofsuchschemeisthatitguaranteesthatall(oralmostall)
thegeneratedelectricityissoldatafixedpriceprovidingastablecashflowfortheinvestorAuctionsoften
relyonutilityPPAsforthedeploymentofrenewableenergyWhileauctionsareoutstandinginstruments
forpricediscoveryandhavepromptedrecord-lowrenewableenergypricesinrecentyearspolicymakers
areincreasinglyfocusingoncomplementarydevelopmentobjectivessuchasmaximisingsocio-economic
benefits(IRENAk)
Virtualpowerplant
IntheVPPmodelthesaleofPVelectricityontheelectricityexchangeisdonebypoolingseveralPVplants
andotherformsofgeneration(eghydrowindbiogasfossil-fired)Thisaimstotakeadvantageofthepeak
pricesofdifferenttechnologiesduringcertaintimesofthedaytoincreaseprofits
PV-hybridminigrid
PV-hybridminigridsaredistributedgrid-integratedoroff-gridsystemsconsistingofdistributedgeneration
multipleenergyloadsandlocalgridinfrastructureandareaimedatprovidingreliableandaffordableenergy
supplyatalocallevel(residentialcommercialorindustrial)Thesesystemsaretypicallyusedforremote
regionsbutcanalsobeappliedtoindustrialparkswithanindependentgridTherearethreemaindrivers
forPV-hybridminigridsreliableaccesstoelectrificationfuelsavingsandreducedCOemissionsThewide
varietyofapplicationsforPV-hybridminigridsincludescommunityandutilitysettingsinstitutionaland
campusbuildings(eggovernmentandcollegeresearchcentres)emergencyservices(eghospitalspolice
stationsdata centres)military operatingbasesremoteoff-gridsites (especially indevelopingcountries
andisolatedareas)andrenewableenergygridintegration(ifcoupledwithstorageloadmanagementand
distributedpowertheycanmanagethevariabilityofrenewablesenteringthegrid)
MiniPV
MiniPVsystemsdonotneedgridconnectionstheyareusedforasinglepurposesuchaslightingcellphone
charging water purification household appliances and are very flexible as to their location The main
advantagesofsuchasystemareelectricitysavingsandeasyaccesstoelectricity
Sources: BSW Solar (2015); IRENA (2019c).
- 60 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV ACCELERATING SOLAR PV DEPLOYMENT: BARRIERS AND SOLUTIONS
8. ACCELERATING SOLAR PV DEPLOYMENT:
BARRIERS AND SOLUTIONS
This report clearly points out that solar PV is one of
thestrategicrenewabletechnologiesneededtorealise
the global energy transformation in line with the
Paris climate goals The technology is available now
couldbedeployedquicklyatalargescaleandiscost-
competitiveHoweverdespitethestrongmomentum
solar PV power projects continue to face serious
constraintsthatcouldpotentiallyhindertheaccelerated
growthneededinthecomingdecades
In general renewable energy sources are affected
to differing degrees by problems resulting from
varying project specifications geographical contexts
and levels of maturity For solar PV power existing
barriers at different levels (technological economic
policy and regulatory and socio-political) could
hinderthedeploymentofsolarPVcapacityinthenext
three decades (Figure ) Mitigating these barriers
immediatelythrougha rangeofsupport policiesand
implementation measures is vital to boost future
deployment
FigureExistingbarrierstofosteringsolarPVdeployment
•
Grid-connection and
integration challenges
•
Grid-flexibility challenges
•
Lack of capacity/skilled labour
•
Architectural and space barriers
TECHNOLOGICAL BARRIERS
• Complex/outdated regulatory framework
• Lack of long-term and stable policy targets
and well-coordinated policy mix
• Lack of quality control measures
• Concerns about technology maturity
and performance
POLICY BARRIERS
• Long payback periods
• Carbon emissions and local air
pollutants are not priced or fully priced
• Low wholesale power prices in countries
with low levels of irradiation
MARKET AND
ECONOMIC BARRIERS
• Lack of consumer information on
performance, costs competitiveness
and economics of solar PV
• Lack of relevant standards an
quality control measures
• Lack of skilled professionals and experience
REGULATORY, POLITICAL
AND SOCIAL BARRIERS
While energy transformation could bring positive
overall socio-economic benefits at the global level
a deeper look at the regional level highlights how
thebenefits(andcosts)ofthetransformationwould
impact various parts of the world differently Such
differences are due mainly to ) countries having
different energy transition starting points ) the
depths strengths and diversityof supply chains )
thedegreetowhicheconomiesdependonfossilfuels
and)differentlevelsofnationalambitionandmeans
ofimplementation(IRENAb)
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FUTURE OF SOLAR PV ACCELERATING SOLAR PV DEPLOYMENT: BARRIERS AND SOLUTIONS
Levelling out the regional and country-level effects
of the energy transformation depends on a policy
frameworkthatoperatesontwofrontsTheframework
should promote the deployment of renewables both
toreduceenergyconsumptionandtoincreaseenergy
accessSimultaneouslythedeploymentofrenewables
must be embedded into broader policies that make
energyacatalystofeconomicinclusiveandsustainable
growthSucha“justtransition”policyframeworkrests
on three transformative sets of policies deployment
policies integrating policies and enabling policies
Thesesetsofpolicieswouldneedtoworktogetherto
ensure a just and inclusive energy transition mainly
to overcome all the existing barriers (policy market
and economictechnologicalregulatorypoliticaland
social)listedinFigure(IRENAb)
FigureThepolicyframeworkforajusttransition
The choice of the instrument and its design should
be made based on country-specific conditions and
objectives The solutions and measures henceforth
arewiderandneedsaspecificstudyfocussingonjust
addressing the barriers in the industry This report
presents an overview of some of the key aspects
to be considered to accelerate solar PV capacity
deployments along with some successful examples
basedonIRENA’scomprehensiveworkonrenewables
sofaralongwithadditionalliteraturereview
Integrating
policies
Deployment
policies
Push
System flexibility
Behavioral policies
Sector coupling
Financial policies
Industrial policies
Labour market and
social protection policies
Education and
skills policies
R&D
Pull
Fiscal and financial
Enabling
policies
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FUTURE OF SOLAR PV ACCELERATING SOLAR PV DEPLOYMENT: BARRIERS AND SOLUTIONS
 DEPLOYMENTPOLICIES
Solar PV has been supported by a range of policy
instruments At a large scale this support has
traditionally been in the form of feed-in-tariffs (eg
inEurope)taxincentivesandquotasandobligations
(eg India and the UnitedStates) and is now
increasinglymovingtowardsauctionsAtasmallscale
netmeteringandtaxandotherfiscalincentiveshave
beenthemainsupportinginstrumentsInthecontext
of off-grid solar PV solutions electrification policies
and targets along with innovative business plans
haveallowedtheirincreaseddeployment
In general when choosing the right instrument and
itsdesignthreekeyelementsshouldbeconsidered
First policies should be tailored to country-specific
conditions and objectives Second deployment
policies should offer long-term stability to attract
investment And third policies should consider all
relevantpointsfromthecosttrends(IRENAb)
Deploymentpolicies
• Set long-term well-defined and stable solar PV
powertargetstoattractinvestment
• Providelong-termstabilityofpolicyinstruments
• Policy making needs to minimise swings from
strong supportive measures to aggressive
curbs Likewise prolonged periods of policy
uncertaintycangreatlyimpactthefutureofthe
solarPVindustry
• Long-term support mechanisms including
capacity or adequacy mechanisms and support
schemesforrenewablesarewidelyusedtoguide
generation investment according to national
policy priorities and to increase the appetite for
investment in renewables from both public and
privateinvestors
• Adaptpoliciestochangingmarketconditions
• Deploy renewable energy auctions that achieve
policy objectives which include ensuring timely
projectcompletionintegratingsolarandwindpower
andsupportingajustandinclusiveenergytransition
• Considerfinancingcostsnotonlyforcost-effective
deployment strategies for decarbonising power
generationbutalsotoexplicitlyaddressaspartof
renewablepoliciesinordertomitigatethebarriers
associated with the growth of renewable energy
investments
• Thedevelopmentofinnovativefinancialschemes
could contribute to overcoming financial
constraintsandallowconsumerstoinvestinsolar
PVtechnologiesOnekeysolutionisrepresented
by community-shared and third-party-owned
business models which create community solar
projects These allow consumers who do not
have sufficient solar resource or who simply
cannot afford it to buy or lease a portion of a
shared solar system (Reese MO et al )
Thismodelhasseveralbenefitswhichencourage
the development and use of solar PV solutions
for the residential marketincluding reducing or
eliminating of upfront costs (Horath and Szabo
) increasing electricity rate stability and
potential bill savings and helping lower-income
consumers to expand their systems which they
would not be able to do due to lack of credit
(NREL)
• EnableandscaleupcorporatesourcingofsolarPV
projects(IRENAa)
• Aneffectivecredibleandtransparentsystemfor
certification and tracking of renewable energy
attributesshouldbesupported
• Companies should be empowered to engage in
direct investments for corporate production of
renewableelectricityforself-consumption
• Companiesshouldbeallowedtoworkwithutilities
or electricity suppliers to provide corporate
renewableprocurementoptions
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FUTURE OF SOLAR PV ACCELERATING SOLAR PV DEPLOYMENT: BARRIERS AND SOLUTIONS
 INTEGRATINGPOLICIES
Integrating policies such as national infrastructure
sector coupling or R&D policies promote planning
and co-ordination Integrating measures meanwhile
enhance system flexibility as the share of variable
renewablesrises(IRENAIEAREN)
Systemintegrationpolicies
• Adopt a systemic approach drawing together
innovations in enabling technologies market
designbusinessmodelsandsystemoperation
• The implementation of innovations mapped
in Box  to unlock flexibility across the whole
power sector would result in lower costs to
integrate VRE and so support the energy
transformation Potential synergies among the
different solutions also exist which can result
in lower investments whenimplementingthem
together(IRENAd)
• Support the deployment of distributed energy
resources(IRENAd)
• Emerging distributed energy resources that are
connectedattheconsumerend–suchasrooftop
solar PV micro wind turbines battery energy
storage systems plug-in EVs demand response
andpower-to-Xsolutions(egpower-to-hydrogen
orpower-to-heat)–aredecentralisingthesystem
andshouldbesupportedanddeployed
• Distributed resources should be enabled to
participateinestablishedmarketssuchaswholesale
electricity markets ancillary service markets and
capacitymarkets(ifapplicable)sothatdistributed
energy resources are exposed to market price
signalsThiscanbedoneeitherviaaggregatorsor
by decreasing the minimum capacity requirement
forparticipatinginsuchmarkets
• Variousemergingdigitaltechnologiessuchasthe
Internet of Things artificial Intelligence and big
data and blockchain could support distributed
energy resources in responding to system
conditions and providing services to the grid
turningthemintoflexibilityproviders
• Improveexistinginfrastructurealongwithbuilding
a high-voltage grid or super grid to transport
electricity to another region and avoid renewable
energycurtailment
• Thecostofbuildingsuchagridishighandmustbe
measured against the economic benefitsof both
ofthesystemsthatthegridislinkingInaddition
co-ordination by multiple layers ofgovernment
(federalregionalandstate)isimportant(IRENA
d)
• To improve resilience of the grid and the
energy access rate with renewable sources
microgridscouldbe deployedTostrengthenthe
interconnectionsamongcountrieswithinaregion
supergridscouldbeasolution
SOLUTIONS SUCCESSFUL EXAMPLES
Stimulategrowthofthesolar
industryandmarketthrough
clearandwell-designedincen-
tivemechanisms
TheCaliforniaSolarInitiative(CSI)waslaunchedinwiththeaimofstim-
ulatinggrowthanddemandinthesolarenergymarketbyprovidingupfront
financialincentivesforsolarenergyinstallationsThefinancialincentivespro-
videdundertheprogrammeweredesignedtodeclineovertimeasexperience
innovationandcompetitioninthefieldcontinuedtolowerpricesThankstothe
initiativeCalifornia’ssolarPVcapacityhasincreasedmorethan-foldsince
itsenactmentandthousandsofjobsandfirmsthroughoutthesolarenergy
valuechainhavebeencreated(HallockandKinman)
Community-sharedsolar
projects
InBrixtonLondonthreesolarrooftopPVprojectshavebeensetupundera
co-operativestructureTheprojectshavebeenimplementedoncouncilestates
andresidentsoftheseestatesarethemembersoftheco-operativesociety
Eachmemberearnsanequaldividendofabout–oftheirinitialinvestment
peryearThroughadedicatedfund–ofannualrevenueisusedforener-
gyeciencyimprovementseducationinitiativesandreducingcolddraughts
(Smedley)
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FUTURE OF SOLAR PV ACCELERATING SOLAR PV DEPLOYMENT: BARRIERS AND SOLUTIONS
• Reduce the uncertainty of solar PV generation
throughadvancedweatherforecasting
• Advanced weather forecasting can help reduce
theuncertaintyofsolargenerationEnhancements
from the use and management of big data and
artificialintelligencecanincreasetheaccuracyof
theforecastandhencetheoverallreliabilityofthe
systemInturnbetterrenewableforecastingcan
help with uncertainty in generationand reserves
(Kroposki)
SOLUTIONS SUCCESSFUL EXAMPLES
EnableDERtoparticipatein
establishedmarkets
SomewholesalemarketoperatorsintheUnitedStateshaveexperienced
successwiththisapproachForexamplePJMthelargestmarketoperatorin
thecountryhassuccessfullyenableddemandresponsetobidintoitsancillary
servicemarketstoprovideregulationservicesInDecembertheNYISO
releasedaconceptproposalformarketdesignthatwouldenablethepartici-
pationofDERinthewholesaleaswellastheancillaryservicemarketsAsper
thisproposalDERwillbetreatedinthesamewayasothermarketresources
Theywillbeabletoparticipateincapacityreservemarketsregulationservice
marketsandothereitherdirectlyorviatheaggregatorsofsmall-scaleDER
(kW)(IRENAd)
Digitaltechnologies PVVPPTheSouthAustraliangovernmentandTeslaaredevelopinganetwork
ofhomesolarPVunitsconnectedtoanaggregatorTheVPPisex-
pectedtomeetaroundofSouthAustralia’saveragedailypowerdemand
(MW)Additionallythenewpowerplantisexpectedtolowerenergybills
forparticipatinghouseholdsbyaroundanditwillbenefitallSouthAustral-
ianswithlowerenergypricesandincreasedenergystability(IRENAd)
Advancedweatherforecasting
techniques
PerduSprojectFundedbytheBMWIthisprojectinGermanywaslaunchedin
MarchItfocusesonSaharandustoutbreaksandonimprovingweather
andPVpowerforecastsduringsuchweathersituationstherebysupportingthe
incorporationofanincreasingshareofrenewableenergyintotheGermanpow-
ermixForexampleonAprilGermanyexperiencedalargeday-ahead
PVpowerforecasterroroftheorderofGWaresultofSaharandustbeing
transportedtoGermanyduringthisandprecedingdays(IRENAd)
Socialintegrationpolicies
• Torealisethe accelerated growth ofsolarPV power
in coming decades the adverse social impacts
thatmay arise duringdifferentphasesof solar PV
projects(planningconstructionandO&M)needto
beidentifiedandassessedwellinadvanceaswell
as mitigated In this regard assuring the quality of
solarPVinstallationsiscrucialtoensurestabilityfor
investorsandotherstakeholdersThisisanessential
instrumenttoprotectandacceleratefutureinvestment
inPVdeploymentQualityassurancehelpstoreduce
risk by providing the confidence that a product or
servicewillmeetexpectations(IRENAa)
• Engage local communities from the early stages
ofsolarPVdevelopmentMakingthecommunitya
fundamentalpartofaprojectthroughoutallstages
of project development and operation as well as
promoting the equitable distribution of economic
benefits and costs (egthroughcreationofjobs)
gives a much better chance of deploying truly
community-basedsustainableprojects
• Implement installer certification and licensing
trainingprogrammestoassurethequalityofsolar
PVinstallations
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FUTURE OF SOLAR PV ACCELERATING SOLAR PV DEPLOYMENT: BARRIERS AND SOLUTIONS
Urbanpolicies
• For future urbanplanning newbuildingscanbe
designedtointegratePVsystemsintheirstructure
to maximise the installation space The lack of
adequate installation space for PV panels is a key
barrier in the context of cities as PV panels need
tobeangledintherightdirectiontomaximisesolar
exposure For instance cities such as Hong Kong
New York Sydney and London have a cityscape
featuring high-rise buildings with major space
constraintsasthesurfaceis simplytoo limited on
olderhigh-risebuildings
• The physicalaspect of thecityincluding thelocal
building stock also has an impact on how much
electricity can be generated from rooftop PV
systems (Mah et al ) For instance houses
withlimitedroofspacesuchastenementsamulti-
occupancybuildingtypicalofScottishcitiesresults
inlesselectricityoutputcomparedwithoutputfrom
largepropertiesthatatypicalinothercities
SOLUTIONS SUCCESSFUL EXAMPLES
Communityengagement UnitedKingdomInthecaseoftheconstructionoftheSouthwickSolarfarm
(nearthetownofFareham)communityrelationswereofparamountimportance
Publiccommunitieswereinvolvedduringconstructionandoperationthrough
regularupdatesontheproject’sstatusandanyissuesThiswasachieved
throughvariouscommunityengagementmethodssuchaseducationaltalks
andguidedtoursthroughthesitediscussionforumsandmeetings(BRE)
Qualityassurancemechanisms InAustraliaqualitymechanismssuchasaccreditationallowinstallers(and
equipmentretailers)toachievehighqualityOnceaccreditedwiththeClean
EnergyCouncilsolarPVinstallationsareeligibleforgovernmentrebatessuch
asSmall-scaleTechnologyCertificatesandfeed-intarisTobecomesolarPV
accreditedinstallersmustcompletetrainingcoursesandprovideevidence
oftheirelectricallicenceworkingatheightscertificationandpublicliability
insuranceOnceapprovedtheaccreditationisvalidfortwoyearsafterwhich
itispossibletoapplyforrenewal(IRENAa)
SOLUTIONS SUCCESSFUL EXAMPLES
Spatialplanningmapping SuccessfulworkhasalreadybeendoneattheEuropeanlevelnamelythrough
theCoalRegionsinTransitioninitiativeinlatebytheEuropeanCom-
missionAnalysishasbeencarriedouttoseetheextenttowhichtheuseof
PVelectricitygenerationsystemscanhelpthetransitionthecoalregionsof
theEuropeanUnion(Bodisetal)Theanalysisusedaspatiallyexplic-
itmethodologyandconsidereddierenttypesofsolarPVsystemssuchas
ground-mountedsystemsaswellastheinstallationofrooftopsolarPVsys-
temsontheexistingbuildingstockResultsshowedthattheavailableareain
thoseregionsisabundantandthatsolarPVsystemscouldfullysubstitutethe
currentelectricitygenerationofcoal-firedpowerplantsintheanalysedregions
(Bodisetal)
Mandatingsolarinstallations
innewbuildings
InCaliforniaaddednewprovisionstothestate’sbuildingcodeAmong
themistherequirementthatasofallnewhomesbebuiltwithsolar
panelsinstalledWheresolarisnotsuitablehomeownersmusthaveaccess
toacommunitysolarprojectorreceiveeciencyupgradesthatcompensate
(RobertsD)
- 66 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV ACCELERATING SOLAR PV DEPLOYMENT: BARRIERS AND SOLUTIONS
 ENABLINGPOLICIES
Strengthening policy connectivity and co-ordination
between energy and the rest of the economy will
draw maximum systemic benefits from the energy
transformationSuch policies must focuson building
capabilities for renewables production use and
application as well as on reform of the broader
institutional architecture to enable systemic benefits
betweentheenergysectorandthewidereconomyThe
enablingframeworklinksfourcrucialnationalpolicies
industrial policylabourmarketandsocialprotection
policyeducationandskillspolicyandfinancialpolicy
INDUSTRIALPOLICY
Industrial policies generally are intended to support
economicdiversificationMainlyatransition-enabling
industrialpolicyshouldmaketheenergysectorintoa
leadsectoroftheeconomySomerecommendations
onthisaspectarelistedbelow
• PromoteR&Dstrategies as well as institutions to
advancetheuptakeofR&Dresultsinthepublicand
privatesectors
• Facilitate competitive environments in which
reduction in the cost of energy is both rewarded
through the right to deliver new projects and
supportedthroughtheprovisionoftargetedpublic
R&Dfunding
• Promoteconsumerawareness
• Enabletargetedpublicinvestmenttosupportthe
uptakeofrenewablesandtocreateadditionaljobs
andcapabilities
• Strengthenandmaximisevaluecreationfromthe
developmentofadomesticsolarPVindustry
FINANCIALPOLICY
Mobilisingfinancialinvestmentiscrucialfortheenergy
transitiontohappen
• Mobilise significant revenue streams through
carbon pricing and other measures including
greenbondsanddeviserevenuerecyclingschemes
toachieveajusttransition
• Userevenuestosupportstrategicinvestmentinnew
infrastructureandreallocateandrecyclebudgetsin
awaythatbenefitseducationhealthcareandother
sectors
• Carbon taxation revenues can be used to foster
newemploymentcreationandtolimitthefinancial
burdens of carbon pricing on low-income families
andsmallbusinesses
EDUCATIONANDSKILLSPOLICY
• Support skills and supply chain development in
order to enable the commercialisation of wind
technology
• Technical education and training offered by
dedicated institutions or as part of university
curricula can help equip the workforce with
adequateskillsandwouldincreaseopportunities
forlocalemployment(IRENAb)
• Facilitate reskilling of the work force from the
fossil fuel industry to renewables Successful
jobmigrationbetweensectorshoweverdepends
on dedicated retraining policies Specific policy
measures such as upgrading and supplier
development programmes support for joint
venturesandindustrialpromotionschemesmay
beneededtostrengthentheindustrialcapacityof
domesticfirms
- 67 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV REFERENCES
REFERENCES
BeckMetal()“CombiningPVandfoodcropstoagrophotovoltaic?Optimizationof
orientationandharvest”FraunhoferInstituteforSolarEnergySystems(ISE)ResearchGate
httpsdoiorgthEUPVSEC-AV
BNEF()CleanenergyinvestmenttrendsBloombergNewEnergyFinanceLondon
BodisKKougiasITaylorNJager-WaldauA()“SolarPhotovoltaicElectricityGeneration
ALifelinefortheEuropeanCoalRegionsinTransition”Sustainability()
httpsdoiorgsu
BraunSHahnGNisslerRPönischCHabermannD()“TheMulti-busbarDesignAnOverview”
EnergyProcedia–httpsdoiorgjegypro
BRE()CommunityengagementgoodpracticeguidanceforsolarfarmsNWaters
OPenderedandGHartnell
BSWSolar()PVInvestorGuide-Newbusinessmodelsforphotovoltaicininternationalmarkets
BSW-SolarTheGermanSolarIndustryAssociationBerlinGermany
CenJ()“Salinesolutions”PVMagazinePhotovoltaicmarketsandtechnologyMarch
CherradiN()“SolarPVtechnologieswhat’snext?”BecquerelInstituteBrusselsBelgium
EnergyCommunity()PolicyGuidelinesbytheEnergyCommunitySecretariatontheGridIntegrationof
ProsumersEnergyCommunitySecretariatViennaAustria
ExtanceA()“Therealitybehindsolarpower’snextstarmaterial”Nature–InternationalJournalof
Sciencehttpswwwnaturecomarticlesd---y(accessedSeptember)
EuropeanCommission()StudyontheeffectiveintegrationofDistributedEnergyResourcesfor
providingflexibilitytotheelectricitysystemstudyledbySwecoincooperationwithEcofysTractebel
EngineeringandPwC
FilatofN()“Theimportanceofstayingcool”PVMagazinePhotovoltaicmarketsandtechnology
July
FraunhoferISE()PhotovoltaicsreportFraunhoferISEandPSEConferences&ConsultingGmbH
FreiburgMarch
GlobalData()SolarPVmoduleUpdateGlobalMarketSizecompetitivelandscapeandkeycountry
analysistoGlobalDataLondon
GlobalData()SolarPVmoduleUpdateGlobalmarketsizecompetitivelandscapeandkeycountry
analysistoGlobalDataLondon
GOGLAandVividEconomics()EmploymentOpportunitiesinanEvolvingMarketUtrecht
- 68 -
FUTURE OF SOLAR PV REFERENCES
GraceW()“ExploringtheDeathSpiralAsystemdynamicsmodeloftheelectricitynetworkin
WesternAustralia”InSayighA(eds)TransitionTowardsRenewableEnergyInnovativeRenewable
EnergySpringerChamhttpsdoiorg----
GreenMA()“Photovoltaictechnologyandvisionsforthefuture”ProgressinEnergyI
VolumeNumberhttpsdoiorg-abfapdf
HallockLandMKinman()“California’ssolarsuccessstoryHowthemillionsolarroofs
initiativetransformedthestate’ssolarenergylandscape”FrontierGroupandEnvironmentCalifornia
Research&PolicyCenter
HanleyS()“Combiningsolarandfarmingbenefitsboth”CleanTechnica
httpscleantechnicacomcombining-solar-farming-benefits-both(accessedSeptember)
HorathDandRZSzabo()“EvolutionofphotovoltaicbusinessmodelsOvercomingthemain
barriersofdistributedenergydeployment”RenewableandSustainableEnergyReviewsElseviervol(C)
pages-DOIjrser
IEAetal()TrackingSDGTheenergyprogressreportInternationalEnergyAgencyInternational
RenewableEnergyAgencyUnitedNationsStatisticsDivisionWorldBankandWorldHealthOrganisation
IEA(a)Renewables–AnalysisandforecaststoOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationand
DevelopmentInternationalEnergyAgencyParis
IEA(b)WorldEnergyInvestmentsInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)Paris
IEA-PVPS()PhotovoltaicsandFirefighters’OperationsBestPracticesinSelectedCountriesInternational
EnergyAgencyPhotovoltaicPowerSystems
IPCC()GlobalWarmingofC”anIPCCSpecialReportontheimpactsofglobalwarmingofC
abovepre-industriallevelsandrelatedglobalgreenhousegasemissionpathwaysinthecontextofstrengthening
theglobalresponsetothethreatofclimatechangesustainabledevelopmentandeffortstoeradicatepoverty
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeGenevaSwitzerland
IRENA(forthcominga)Powertochange–SolarandwindcostreductionpotentialtoInternational
RenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(forthcomingb)LocalSocio-economicBenefitsthroughUtility-scaleWindandSolarProjects
ExperiencesinSub-SaharanAfricaInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(forthcomingc)RenewableenergybenefitsLeveraginglocalcapacityforsolarwaterheaters
InternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(a)GlobalenergytransformationAroadmapto(edition)
InternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
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FUTURE OF SOLAR PV REFERENCES
IRENA(b)Transformingtheenergysystem–andholdingthelineontheriseofglobaltemperatures
InternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(c)RenewablecapacitystatisticsInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(d)Innovationlandscapeforarenewable-poweredfutureSolutionstointegraterenewables
InternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(e)Climatechangeandrenewableenergy–Nationalpoliciesandtheroleofcommunities
citiesandregionsAreporttotheGClimateandSustainabilityWorkingGroup(CSWG)
InternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(f)RenewablepowergenerationcostsinInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(g)InnovationOutlookSmartchargingforelectricvehicles
InternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(h)HydrogenArenewableenergyperspectiveInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(i)Renewableenergyandjobs–AnnualreviewInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(j)RenewableEnergyAGenderPerspectiveInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(k)RenewableenergyauctionsStatusandtrendsbeyondprice(preliminaryfindings)
InternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(a)RenewablepowergenerationcostsinInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(b)Off-gridrenewableenergysolutions-Globalandregionalstatusandtrends
InternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(a)BoostingsolarPVmarketsTheroleofqualityinfrastructure
InternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA(b)RenewableenergybenefitsLeveraginglocalcapacityforsolarPVInternationalRenewable
EnergyAgencyandLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory(LBNL)
IRENA(c)AdaptingmarketdesigntohighsharesofvariablerenewableenergyInternationalRenewable
EnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENA()ThepowertochangeCostreductionpotentialforsolarandwindInternationalRenewable
EnergyAgencyAbuDhabi
IRENAandIEA-PVPS()End-of-lifemanagementSolarphotovoltaicpanelsInternationalRenewable
EnergyAgencyandInternationalEnergyAgencyPhotovoltaicPowerSystems
IRENAIEAandREN()RenewableenergypoliciesinatimeoftransitionInternationalRenewable
EnergyAgency(IRENA)InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)andRenewableEnergyPolicyNetworkfor
thestCentury(REN)
JRC()PVstatusreportEuropeanCommissionDGJointResearchCentreIspraItaly
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FUTURE OF SOLAR PV REFERENCES
KBodisetal()“SolarphotovoltaicelectricitygenerationAlifelinefortheEuropeancoalregionsin
transitionSustainabilityVolIssuepphttpsdoiorgsu
KellyGandSMahesh()Standardsinthesolarphotovoltaicvaluechaininrelationtointernationaltrade
InternationalCentreforTradeandSustainableDevelopment(ICTSD)GenevaSwitzerland
KICInnoEnergy()FuturerenewableenergycostssolarphotovoltaicsHowtechnologyinnovationis
anticipatedtoreducethecostofenergyfromEuropeanphotovoltaicinstallationsKICInnoEnergy
KroposkiB()“Integratinghighlevelsofvariablerenewableenergyintoelectricpowersystems”
JModPowerSystCleanEnergyVolIssuepp–httpsdoiorgs---
KumarNMSudhakarKSamykanoMJayaseelanV()“Onthetechnologiesempoweringdrones
forintelligentmonitoringofsolarphotovoltaicpowerplants”ProcediaComputerScienceVolumepp
–httpsdoiorgjprocs
MahDNWangGLoKLeungMHHillsPLoYA()“Barriersandpolicyenablersforsolar
photovoltaics(PV)incitiesPerspectivesofpotentialadoptersinHongKong”RenewableandSustainable
EnergyReviewsVolumePages-httpsdoiorgjrser
MarshJ()“PERCsolarcellsAnoverview”EnergySage
httpsnewsenergysagecomperc-solar-cells-overview(accessedSeptember)
MesbahiM()WhitePaperonSoilingTheScienceandSolutionsSolarPlaza
MoharramKAAbd-ElhadyMSKandilHAEl-SherifH()“Enhancingtheperformanceof
photovoltaicpanelsbywatercooling”AinShamsEngineeringJournalVolumeIssuePages-
httpsdoiorgjasej
ReeseMOGlynnSKempeMDMcGottDLDabneyMSBarnesTMBoothSFeldman
DHaegelNM()“Increasingmarketsanddecreasingpackageweightforhigh-specific-power
photovoltaics”NatureEnergy–httpsdoiorgs---
NREL()“Communitysharedsolarpolicyandregulatoryconsiderations”NationalRenewableEnergy
LaboratoryGoldenColorado
REN()RenewablesglobalstatusreportRENSecretariatParis
RobertsD()“CaliforniawillrequiresolarpanelsonallnewhomesThat’snotnecessarilyagoodthing”
Voxhttpswwwvoxcomenergy-and-environmentcalifornia-rooftop-solar-pv-panels-
mandate-energy-experts(accessedSeptember)
RoselundC()“Bifacialmoduledemand”PVMagazinePhotovoltaicmarketsandtechnologyJune
ShravanKChunduriK()“Advancedsolarmoduletechnology–Thetimeforanewgenerationofsolar
moduleshascome”TaiyangNewsChina
ShravanKChunduriK()“PERCsolarcelltechnology-Edition”TaiyangNewsChina
SmedleyT()“Thelocalenergyco-operativerevitalisingLondonestates”TheGuardian
httpswwwtheguardiancomsustainable-businessbloglocal-energy-community-cooperative-london-estate-
agamemnon-otero(accessedSeptember)
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FUTURE OF SOLAR PV REFERENCES
SolarFoundation()NationalSolarJobsCensusSolarFoundationWashingtonDC
SolarPowerEurope(a)GlobalmarketoutlookforsolarpowerSolarPowerEuropeBrusselsBelgium
SolarPowerEurope(b)SolarskinsAnopportunityforgreenercitiesSolarPowerEurope
BrusselsBelgium
SolarPowerEuropeO&MTaskForce()Operation&Maintenance–BestPracticesGuidelines(Version)
SolarPowerEuropeO&MTaskForceBrusselsBelgium
ThoubbornK()“Floatingsolarwhatyouneedtoknow”EnergySage
httpsnewsenergysagecomfloating-solar-what-you-need-to-know(accessedSeptember)
ThurstomCW()“Solarcarportsthriveondual-useconcept”PVMagazinePhotovoltaicmarkets
andtechnologyMarch
TsanovaT()“GermanagroPVtrialshowsuptolanduseefficiency”RenewablesNow
httpsrenewablesnowcomnewsgerman-agro-pv-trial-shows-up-to--land-use-efficiency-
(accessedSeptember)
USDOE()“Solarphotovoltaicsystemsinhurricanesandothersevereweather”
USdepartmentfoEnergy-OfficeofEnergyEfficiency&RenewableEnergy
httpswwwenergygovsitesprodfilesfpvsevereweatherpdf
WilluhnM(a)FloatingPV’swatershedmomentPVMagazinePhotovoltaicmarketsandtechnology
June
WilluhnM(b)TrackingtheWindPVMagazinePhotovoltaicmarketsandtechnologyJuly
WorldBank()WheresunmeetswaterFloatingsolarmarketreportWorldBankGroup
EnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgramSolarEnergyResearchInstituteofSingaporeWashingtonDC
ZionMarketResearch()GlobalsolarwindhybridsystemsmarketBytypeindustrysizeshare
applicationstrendsanalysisandforecast-ZionMarketResearch
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(ISBN 978-92-9260-156-0)
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