6
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The Heat is On
Executive
summary
The Paris Agreement faces its first major
test in 2020 against the backdrop of
a worrying growth in greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions since the adoption of
the landmark agreement in 2015. Promis-
ing signs of ambition are emerging from
all corners of the globe, but far more is
needed to limit emissions and adapt to
the worsening impacts of climate change.
Most governments are currently pri-
oritizing one of two complementary
approaches for addressing climate
change in the lead-up to 2020. This is
according to a joint analysis by UNDP
and UNFCCC which took the world’s
pulse on ambition and provides the
most comprehensive review to date of
intentions for 2020. Some are revising
climate plans previously submitted
under the Paris Agreement that stretch
until 2025 or 2030, while others are
preparing longer-term strategies to
decarbonize their economies.
Developing nations are currently the
front-runners in preparations to revise
plans for combatting the climate crisis
over the next decade by 2020. At least
112 nations, representing 53 percent of
global GHG emissions, have signaled this
intent. Most global growth – in terms of
population, economies and urbanisation
– will take place in developing nations in
coming decades, making it vital for policy
makers to define cleaner pathways to limit
GHGs.
More industrialized nations, meanwhile,
are among the 53 countries currently
working on Long-Term Strategies (LTS) to
submit by the end of 2020 that describe
the phasing out of GHGs from their econ-
omies by the second half of the century.
These strategies include mapping out
radical shifts away from fossil fuels to
cleaner energies such as solar and wind
power – one step considered essential
for delivering on the goals of the Paris
Agreement.
Perhaps tellingly, more than 90 devel-
oping nations are also at various stages
of preparing National Adaptation Plans
(NAPs), which highlight climate risks and
promote resilient development by iden-
tifying adaptation strategies and invest-
ments that are critical for safeguarding
climate-vulnerable sectors and commu-
nities. Thirteen countries have already
formally submitted NAPs.
Climate action plans known as “National-
ly Determined Contributions” (NDCs) are
the backbone of the Paris Agreement.
Almost all parties - 184 out of 197 - have
already submitted their first plans, which
typically set goals to curb GHG emissions
by 2025 or 2030 and may also include
measures to make economies and pop-
ulations more resilient to the impacts of
climate change.
A key principle in the Paris Agreement is
that nations will toughen their NDCs every
five years to ratchet up the fight against
global warming. A first opportunity to do
so will be in 2020.
Of the 112 nations revising their climate
plans, 75 are leading by example. Almost
all of them are developing nations,
including many of the most vulnerable to
the impacts of climate change. They wish
to “enhance” the ambition of their current
plans – either by curbing GHG emissions,
or making their societies more resilient to
the worsening impacts of climate change,
or both. Collectively, they represent 37
percent of global GHG emissions.
The remaining 37 nations, representing
16 percent of global GHG emissions, in-
tend to “update” their existing plans with
new data, information and/or assump-
tions. Through this process, however,
opportunities for bolder action might
emerge – for example, renewable energy
technology costs have fallen dramatically
since 2015 and may now oer an opportu-
nity for ambition.
And there is ample opportunity for other
countries to step up ambition in the
weeks and months ahead because only
14 nations have indicated they do not in-
tend to revise their current plans. It is also
recognized that some nations had already
set themselves very ambitious goals in
2015 and therefore may find it harder
to do so again. Also, many developing
nations want to do more but need finance
to match their ambitions.
Significantly, the final outcome from 71
countries representing 21 percent of
global GHG emissions – including most
developed nations – is unclear. Forty-one
of these countries are still deciding how
they intend to approach their NDC revi-
sions and 10 did not provide any informa-
tion on their intentions. The remaining
20 countries intend to submit revised
NDCs but are still seeking the means to
do so. At a Group of 20 (G20) summit in
Japan in June 2019, leaders agreed that
“by 2020 we aim to communicate, update
or maintain our NDCs, taking into account
that further global eorts are needed.”
This is important because the 2015 Paris
Agreement says developed countries
should “continue to take the lead with
economy-wide, absolute emission reduc-
tion targets.”
While climate action has accelerated
since Paris, it still falls far short of an
unprecedented transformation needed to
limit impacts of climate change. Already
at record highs, GHG emissions are set
to keep rising in the coming decade on