European flight growth continued to slow
down and went up by just 1.0% in May to
stand at the low end of the forecast.
Preliminary data for June show an increase
of 1.3% in flights on June 2018.
IATA anticipates European airlines to post
profit for 2019 of €7.2 billion down from €8.3
billion in 2018. Globally, airlines will record
their lowest profits since 2014 owing to
rising fuel costs and a weakening of world
trade.
EU carbon prices were stable at €25 per
tonne on average in June. For the first half
of 2019 they averaged €24 per tonne
compared with €12 for the same period in
2018.
Airline ticket prices decreased by 0.6% in
May 2019.
Oil prices fell sharply and averaged €55 per
barrel in June from €63 in May. For the first
half of 2019 oil prices were €58 per barrel on
average, unchanged from a year-ago
period.
EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecasts 2
Other Statistics and Forecasts 4
Passenger airlines 5
Oil 7
Environment 7
Airports 8
Fares 9
Aircraft Manufacturing 10
Regulation 10
Issue N°209. 03/07/2019
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EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecasts
European flight growth (ECAC – European Civil Aviation Conference area) continued to slow
down and increased by just 1.0% in May to stand at the low end of the forecast published in
February 2019. The year to date growth of 1.8% remains near the low end of the forecast
range. Preliminary data for June show an increase of 1.3% in flights on June 2018 (Figure 1)
(EUROCONTROL/STATFOR).
Main contributors to flight growth in Europe in May 2019
Six states added more than 50 flights per day to the European local traffic growth (excluding
overflights). Italy was the top contributor with 160 additional flights per day owing to a strong
growth of the flow to and from Western Europe which added 116 daily flights (the flow to and
from Germany alone generated 44 extra daily flights). Also, the flow to and from North Atlantic
which grew 18% and the flow to and from the Russian Federation which was up 14%. Spain
(excl. Canary Islands) ranked second with 145 additional flights per day owing to its flow to
and from UK (+29 flights/day) and to and from Austria (+22 flights/day) along with its internal
flow (+17 flights/day). France (bouncing back from industrial action in May 2018) was the
third contributor with 120 extra daily flights. Austria was next with 65 extra daily flights thanks
to strong growth to and from Southern Europe (Spain +22 flights/day, Italy +10 flights/day
and France +8 flights/day). Poland was the fifth contributor and added 63 flights per day
owing to its flow to and from Ukraine (+13 flights/day) and to and from Turkey (+10
flights/day). Ukraine was the sixth contributor and saw an increase of 11.5% (+55 flights/day)
in its local traffic owing to its flow to and from Egypt (+19 flights/day) and to and from Poland
(+13 flights/day).
At the other end of the scale, Sweden saw 72 fewer flights per day, a decrease in domestic
air passengers shifting to rail continued to impact the state’s internal flow which went down
10.3% (-44 flights/day). Iceland recorded 53 fewer flights per day owing to its flow to and from
the United States which fell 40% (-21 flights/day) but also to its flows to and from Western
Europe which saw 26 fewer flights/day partly due to the failure of WOW Air in March 2019
(Figure 2) (EUROCONTROL/STATFOR).
Figure 1: Monthly European Traffic and Forecast (based on the 7-year forecast Feb 2019).
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Flight growth by market segment in May 2019
The charter segment had the fastest growth and was up 3.4%, followed by the traditional
scheduled segment which increased by 2.9%. The low-cost segment was down 0.2%, a
significant decrease that can be partly explained by the economic downturn in Turkey where
major Turkish low-cost carriers’ domestic flights fell by 22.8%. The all-cargo and business
aviation segments continued to decline and were down 5.8% and 3.9%, respectively.
(EUROCONTROL/STATFOR).
Outside Europe (ECAC) contributors to flight growth in May 2019
The top five external partners in average daily flights on flows in both directions were the
United States (1,140 flights, up 1.5%), the Russian Federation (1,066 flights, up 3.1%), Egypt
(280 flights, up 18.4%), the United Arab Emirates (262 flights, down 14.4%) and China (204
flights, up 10.7%) (EUROCONTROL/STATFOR).
Top aircraft operators in May 2019
The aircraft operators which added the most flights to the network on a daily basis were
Ryanair (+148 flights), Lufthansa (+66 flights), Jet2.com (+44 flights), Wizz Air (+43 flights)
and LOT (+32 flights) (EUROCONTROL/STATFOR).
All-causes airline delays in May 2019
Based on data from airlines for delays from all causes, the average delay per flight on
departure was 12.0 minutes in May 2019, this was a decrease of 3.4 minutes per flight when
compared with May 2018 where the average delay per flight was 15.4 minutes. Analysis of
the delay causes shows that reactionary delay contributed 4.7 minutes to the average delay
per flight in May 2019. As regards arrivals the average delay per flight on arrival was 11.6
minutes, a decrease of 3.1 minutes per flight. Arrival punctuality also improved with 78.3% of
flights arriving within the 15-minute threshold before or after the scheduled arrival time (STA)
(EUROCONTROL/CODA).
Figure 2: Main changes to traffic on the European network in May 2019.
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Other Statistics and Forecasts
IATA reported that European scheduled passenger traffic (RPK) increased by 8.0% in April
2019 (vs. April 2018), partly due to the shift of Easter and were up from 4.9% in March.
Capacity rose by 6.6% whereas the total passenger load factor was 85.7% compared with
84.6% in April 2018 (IATA, 29 May).
ACI Europe reported overall passenger counts at European airports to be up 4.6% in April
2019 (vs. April 2018) whereas overall aircraft movements increased by 2.1%. Freight traffic
declined by 6.2%, the sharpest decrease since January 2012 (ACI Europe, 19 June).
IATA anticipates European airlines will post profit for 2019 of €7.2 ($8.1) billion down from
€8.3 ($9.4) billion in 2018. Globally, airlines will record their lowest profits since 2014 owing
to rising fuel costs and a weakening of world trade. Profits are forecast to reach €24.8 ($28)
billion compared with €31.4 ($35.5) billion in its December 2018 forecast. Despite fuel prices
which are expected to be 27.5% higher than in 2017, the airline industry should nevertheless
record its 10th consecutive year of profits since the financial crisis. The demand for global air
travel is expected to slow down and grow by 5.0% (down from 7.4% in 2018) (IATA, 2 June).
FAA released its forecast for 2019-2039 and predicts that total operations (landings and take-
offs) handled at air traffic control towers will increase from 51.8 million in 2018 to 62 million
in 2039. The average annual growth rate for the 21-year forecast period is 0.9% (FAA, 8
May).
Figure 3: Main carriers’ traffic statistics.
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Passenger airlines
Traffic Statistics for May
Figure 3 and Figure 4 compare May 2019 figures with May 2018 figures the main European
carriers (with the exception of easyJet which now only reports passenger statistics within its
quarterly reports). In addition to the number of passengers (PAX), passenger capacity is
measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), traffic is measured in revenue passenger
kilometers (RPK) and load factor as a percentage (%).
Capacity, routes, alliances, cost, jobs
Ryanair has bought start-up airline, Malta Air which will start operations with 6 Maltese-
registered Boeing B737 aircraft and increase the number to 10 within three years. The new
subsidiary will fly 60 to destinations across Europe and North Africa from Malta. Ryanair will
brand its Malta-based aircraft fleet in Malta Air livery for summer 2020 (Ryanair, 11 June).
Volotea opened a new base at Cagliari (Sardinia), its 13th base and the fifth in Italy. It will
base two Airbus A319 aircraft and operate 15 routes of which five new ones to Palermo,
Pescara, Marseille, Strasbourg and Prague (Volotea, 30 May).
Germania Flug, Switzerland was rebranded as Chair Airlines and operates a fleet of three
Airbus A319 aircraft from Zurich to 13 leisure destinations in Europe and the Middle-East.
Germania Flug was not affected by the bankruptcy of Germania, Germany last February
(Chair, June).
SAS will operate its first Airbus A350 aircraft from Copenhagen to Chicago, Beijing, New
York, Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong and San Francisco throughout 2020. The airline has 8
A350 aircraft on order with the first unit to be delivered by the end of 2019 to start operations
on 28 January 2020 (SAS, 13 June).
IAG has signed a letter of intent with Boeing for 200 B737 MAX aircraft to be delivered
between 2023 and 2027. The aircraft will be used by IAG’s airlines including Vueling, LEVEL
and British Airways (IAG, 18 June).
Figure 4: Main carriers’ load factors.
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Wizz Air, as part of the Indigo Partners (USA) deal, signed a memorandum of understanding
for the purchase of 20 Airbus A321XLR aircraft to be delivered from 2023 onwards. To date,
Wizz Air has 276 Airbus aircraft on order for deliveries through 2026 (Wizz Air, 19 June).
Wizz Air has added a 6th Airbus A321 aircraft to its Vienna base and will launch 6 new routes
to Alicante, Bremen, Chisinau, Naples, Oslo and Porto from December onwards, bringing to
38 the number of routes served from Vienna (Wizz Air, 4 June).
Azerbaijan Airlines has reportedly postponed the delivery of 10 Boeing B737 MAX 8 aircraft
until 2024 whereas the first unit was initially scheduled for delivery by the end of 2019
(Azernews, 3 June).
Lufthansa has announced a turnaround plan for its low-cost subsidiary Eurowings in an
attempt to reduce costs by 15% by 2022 and make it competitive again. Eurowings posted a
deeper loss for 1Q2019 due to higher fuel costs. The carrier will focus on short-haul, point-
to-point operations and will be standardised with a fleet of Airbus A320 aircraft. The
integration of Brussels Airlines into Eurowings will be abandoned (Lufthansa, 24 June).
TAP has launched three new transatlantic routes to Chicago, San Francisco and Washington
this summer and reportedly announced it will order the new Airbus A321XLR aircraft. The
airline already flies two Airbus A321LR aircraft and has 12 more on order with the possibility
to convert some of them to the XLR variant (TAP, 18 June and ATW, 26 June).
The Russian Federation has reportedly imposed a temporary ban on passenger flights
between Russia and Georgia on the ground of political unrest between the two countries.
The suspension is effective from 8 July and concerns 9 airlines and 17 routes operated
between Russia and Georgia (The Moscow Times, 21 June).
Failures
Joon completed its last flight on 26 June and was incorporated into its parent company, Air
France. The millennial-focused airline started operations in December 2017 to take over Air
France non profitable routes and at the same time reduce costs and be competitive on the
low-cost segment. In 2018 it operated a fleet of 18 Airbus A320 and 340 family aircraft serving
18 destinations in Europe, South America and Africa. 10 Airbus A350-900 aircraft were
scheduled for delivery by 2020 (Air France, June).
Figure 5: Busiest airport pairs in May 2019 (bi-directional flights).
Rank Departure Airport Arrival Airport Average Daily Flights in May 2019 Growth on May 2018
1 Tenerife Norte Las Palmas 57 2.2%
2 Madrid Barcelona 51 2.1%
3 Oslo Trondheim 51 2.4%
4 Berlin Tegel Munich 51 20.1%
5 Istanbul Sabiha Gökcen Antalya 48 -2.3%
6 Toulouse Paris Orly 47 -0.9%
7 Istanbul Sabiha Gökcen Izmir 47 -0.5%
8 Oslo Bergen 46 -5.1%
9 Barcelona Palma de Mallorca 46 -3.1%
10 Berlin Tegel Frankfurt 46 -1.8%
source: EUROCONTROL/STATFOR
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Oil
Oil prices fell sharply and averaged €55 per barrel in June from €63 in May. For the first half
of 2019 oil prices were €58 per barrel, unchanged from a year-ago period. Converted indices
for oil and jet fuel prices are shown in Figure 6.
EIA forecasts Brent crude prices to average €59 ($67) per barrel in 2019 which is €2.6 ($3)
per barrel lower than last month’s forecast, and will remain at €59 ($67) per barrel in 2020.
EIA lowered oil prices for 2019 following rising uncertainty about global oil demand growth
(EIA, 11 June).
IATA forecasts the global airline industry’s fuel bill to be €180 ($206) billion in 2019 from €158
($180) billion in 2018 and will account for 25% of operating expenses (vs. 23.5% in 2018).
The forecast is based on Brent crude oil averaging €61 ($70) per barrel in 2019 (vs. €63 ($72)
in 2018) (IATA, June).
Environment
EU carbon prices (European CO
2
Emissions Allowances) averaged €24.6/tonne in June 2019
compared with €15.1/tonne in June 2018 and were five times higher than in June 2017 (€5.0
per tonne). This remained above the trend (12-month trailing average) shown in Figure 7
(Insider Inc., June).
Airports Council International (ACI) Europe announced that 194 European airports have
signed a resolution of “NetZeroCarbon2050” whereby they commit to cut CO
2
emissions to
zero by 2050 at the latest. To date 43 European airports are already carbon neutral, however
when excluding offsets, the number of net-zero airports is three (small airports in Sweden).
The resolution does not include aircraft emissions but those of the airport’s buildings,
infrastructure and vehicles.
Figure 6: Oil and jet fuel prices.
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Airports
Figure 5 shows the busiest airport pairs in May 2019 with 60% of them declining compared
with May last year. The significant increase of the Berlin Tegel-Munich pair was due to the
low-cost segment which was up 46% compared with May 2018.
Passenger traffic and commercial aircraft movements at the top five European airports
(based on the number of flights) in May 2019 (growth on May 2018) were as follows:
The five European airports adding the most flights (departures + arrivals) during the
January-May 2019 period (vs. year-ago period) were the following:
Source: EURCONTROL/STATFOR
The increase at Vienna was driven by the low-cost segment and newcomers such as Lauda,
LEVEL and Wizz Air. Berlin Tegel saw a 30% increase in low-cost flights (+62 flights/day)
owing mainly to easyJet Europe and Ryanair which started operations at the airport in 2019.
The increase at Paris CDG was partly due to a bounce back from industrial action in April
2018.
Rank Airport Passenger traffic Aircraft movements
1 Frankfurt 6.2 million (+ 1.4%) 46.2K (+ 1.0%)
2 Amsterdam 6.4 million (+ 0.6%) 44.7K (- 0.1%)
3 Paris CDG 6.5 million (+ 6.2%) 43.4K (+ 5.4%)
4 London Heathrow 6.8 million (+ 1.4%) 41.6K (+ 1.1%)
5 Munich 4.3 million (+ 5.4%) 36.9K (+ 5.0%)
Source: airport reports, June 2019
Rank Airport Name Average Daily Movements Jan-May 2019 Change year-ago period
1 Vienna 725 +93 flights/day
2 Berlin Tegel 524 +80 flights/day
3 Paris CDG 1,323 +66 flights/day
4 Dusseldorf 596 +53 flights/day
5 Milan Malpensa 535 +50 flights/day
Figure 7: EU carbon prices (European CO
2
Emissions Allowances).
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The five European airports removing the most flights (departures + arrivals) during the
January-May 2019 period (vs. year-ago period) were the following:
Source: EUROCONTROL/STATFOR
Turkish carriers (namely Turkish Airlines and Pegasus) saw significant decreases in their
domestic network which can be partly explained by the economic slowdown in Turkey. A shift
from air to rail in Sweden along with industrial action impacted domestic flights mostly in April
and May. The decrease in Keflavik is partly due to the failure of WOW Air in March.
Heathrow has unveiled its masterplan for expansion and will construct a third runway by 2026
with the rest of the airport’s infrastructure to be completed by 2050. The plan includes new
measures to reduce emissions along with plans for noise respite and proposed ban on
scheduled night flights. The airport expansion public consultation on the new runway, airport
infrastructure and environmental impacts of expansion runs until 13 September (Heathrow,
18 June).
Fares
Ticket prices in Europe decreased by 0.6% in May 2019 (vs. May 2018) based on preliminary
values. This was just below the trend (12-month trailing average) shown in Figure 8 (Eurostat,
18 June).
Note: to eliminate the influence of inflation on euro figures, the ticket price is deflated with a
price index. The STATFOR deflated ticket prices are estimated in 2015 constant euros. A
detailed explanation of the mechanism can be found here.
Rank Airport Name Average Daily Movements Jan-May 2019 Change year-ago period
1 Ankara 267 -65 flights/day
2 Stockholm Arlanda 635 -34 flights/day
3 Aberdeen 135 -30 flights/day
4 Keflavik 134 -24 flights/day
5 Izmir 193 -23 flights/day
Figure 8: Deflated ticket prices in Europe.
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Aircraft Manufacturing
At Paris air show 479 aircraft were ordered from Airbus, 107 of which were firm orders (IAG
ordered 14 A321XLR aircraft and Virgin Atlantic ordered 14 A330-900 aircraft). Boeing
recorded 247 commitments (IAG signed a letter of intent for 200 B737 MAX family aircraft).
Embraer announced 39 orders of which 20 firm ones whereas ATR reported 75 aircraft orders
of which 37 firm ones. Overall there were 726 orders (562 commitments and 164 firm orders)
of which 45% were meant for operations by European airlines.
Airbus has introduced its new long-range A321XLR aircraft which has a range of 4,700 nm
(+15%) compared with the 4,000 nm of the current A321LR variant. The new aircraft is said
to burn 30% lower fuel per seat than previous generation aircraft. First deliveries will start in
2023. There were commitments and order conversions for circa 260 A321XLR aircraft at
Paris air show (Airbus, June).
Boeing released its 2019 market outlook which forecasts a demand for 44,040 new aircraft
between 2019 and 2038 of which 8,990 (20%) are meant for Europe, for a regional traffic
growth in revenue passenger kilometres of 3.6%. Replacements will represent circa half of
total aircraft deliveries. In 2038 European airlines fleet will consist of 76% of single-aisle
aircraft mostly driven by the rapid growth of low-cost airlines on short-haul routes (Boeing,
June).
Embraer issued its Market Outlook Report 2019 and forecasts a demand for 28,730 new jets
(8,230 units for the up to 150-seat segment and 20,500 units for the 150 to 210-seat segment)
between 2019 and 2038. Europe represents 19% of the demand. Passenger traffic in Europe
is set to grow 3.7% annually over the period (Embraer, June).
Bombardier is selling its CRJ regional jet business to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries thereby
exiting commercial aviation and will focus on business jets and passenger trains. The
transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2020, subject to regulatory approvals. Last
year Bombardier sold its Q Series turboprop aircraft programme to Longview Aviation Capital
and entered into a partnership with Airbus which took over the CSeries aircraft, rebranded as
the Airbus A220 aircraft (Bombardier, 25 June).
Cape Air (a US regional airline) will be the launch customer of Alice, an all-electric aircraft
manufactured by Eviation. The aircraft will seat nine passengers flying at 444 km/h with a
range of up to 1,046 km when it enters into service in 2022 (Eviation, June).
Regulation
The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has published a common set of rules to ensure
safe, secure and sustainable operations of drones for both commercial and leisure activities.
The new rules will enable drone operators to operate seamlessly when traveling across the
EU or when developing business involving drones in Europe. The EU regulation will replace
existing national rules in EU28 and from June 2020, drone operators will need to register in
the Member State where they reside or have their main place of business. EASA has
established three categories of operation for drones: “open” (for low-risk drones of up to
25kg), “specific” (drones will require authorization to be flown) or “certified” (highest risk
category, delivery or passenger drones) (EASA, 11 June).
A survey commissioned by IATA on the impact of a EU-wide tax on air tickets concluded that
air passengers are in favour of governments encouraging the development of new
technologies and sustainable aviation fuels to reduce aviation CO
2
emissions, rather than
imposing environmental taxes. Earlier this year, the Netherlands, France and Belgium have
proposed EU to end tax exemptions on jet fuel and airline tickets, if no European-wide tax on
aviation is agreed, the Netherlands plans to introduce a national flight tax of €7 per departing
passenger from 2021 onwards (IATA, 19 June & Government NL, May).
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The FAA has taken steps to support the development of civil supersonic aircraft and has
issued a notice of proposed rulemaking to include a procedure to request authorization for
supersonic flight-testing in the United States to accommodate future noise certification
actions. Current regulations prohibit overland supersonic (above the speed of sound) civil
flights (FAA, 28 June).
Supporting European Aviation
© 2019 EUROCONTROL
This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes.
It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL
is mentioned as the source and it is not used for commercial purposes
(i.e. for financial gain). The information in this document may not be
modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL.
STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service
statfor.info@eurocontrol.int
www.eurocontrol.int/statfor
The EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR)
is ISO 9001:2008 certified.
The EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR)
is ISO 9001:2008 certified.
is ISO 9001:2015 certified.
